
根据周日发布的一项民调,共和党在七个关键参议院战场州均落后于民主党,其中包括共和党长期大本营得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州,距离中期选举仅剩数天。
Republicans are trailing Democrats in seven key Senate battlegrounds, including longtime GOP strongholds Texas and Kansas, according to a poll released Sunday, just days before the midterm elections.
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示,民主党候选人在目前由共和党参议员把持的五个州领先——阿拉斯加、堪萨斯、缅因、俄亥俄和得克萨斯;爱荷华州的竞争基本持平。在密歇根州——唯一一个被调查的民主党把持的参议院席位——该党候选人拥有两位数领先优势。
The New York Times/Siena poll found Democratic candidates leading in five states currently represented by Republican senators — Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas — while the race in Iowa is virtually tied. In Michigan, the only Democratic-held Senate seat surveyed, the party's candidate holds a double-digit lead.
锡耶纳学院研究所执行主任唐·利维表示,结果显示民主党有可能夺取参议院控制权,但他警告称,有多场竞争仍处于民调误差范围内。
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said the results suggest Democrats could capture control of the Senate, though he cautioned that several races remain within the poll's margin of error.
参议院控制权犹如抛硬币——民主党的夺权之路穿越特朗普大本营 “虽然根据我们的民调,蓝色浪潮和民主党控制参议院是一种截然不同的可能性,但由于有太多竞争处于民调总误差范围内,任何一方获得参议院多数席位仍然都有可能,”利维说。
SENATE CONTROL IS A COIN FLIP — AND DEMOCRATS’ PATH RUNS THROUGH TRUMP COUNTRY "While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible," Levy said.
这些发现在得克萨斯州尤为引人注目,该州自1988年以来未曾选出民主党参议员;在堪萨斯州,民主党自1932年以来未曾赢得参议院竞选。
The findings are particularly striking in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1932.
在得克萨斯州,民主党州议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科在可能投票者中以50%对43%领先共和党总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。在堪萨斯州,民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿以49%对44%领先共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔。
In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
民调还显示,在俄亥俄州,前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗以49%对44%领先共和党参议员乔恩·休斯特德;在缅因州,民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊以51%对45%领先共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯。
The poll also found former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 44%, while Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, 51% to 45%.
在阿拉斯加,前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉以48%对46%领先共和党参议员丹·沙利文。爱荷华州更为胶着,民主党人乔什·图雷克以48%对47%微弱领先共和党众议员阿什利·辛森。
In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%. Iowa is even closer, with Democrat Josh Turek edging Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%.

在密歇根州,民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德在接受调查的七场参议院竞选中领先优势最大,以53%对42%领先共和党人迈克·罗杰斯。
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds the largest lead of the seven Senate races surveyed, leading Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.
这项民调还发现,选民对特朗普总统和共和党处理经济问题的方式存在更广泛的不满。
The poll also found signs of broader dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and Republicans' handling of the economy.
据《纽约时报》报道,在七个州中,仅有38%的可能选民认可特朗普的工作表现,尽管特朗普在2024年总统大选中在其中五个州以两位数的优势获胜。
Just 38% of likely voters across the seven states approve of Trump's job performance, according to the Times, despite Trump carrying five of those states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.

在选民更信任哪个党来解决生活成本问题上,民主党以九个百分点的优势领先共和党,民主党参议员候选人在所有七个州都在这一问题上领先。
Democrats hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans on which party voters trust more to address the cost of living, with Democratic Senate candidates leading on the issue in all seven states.
民调还发现,在接受调查的每个州中,民主党候选人在独立选民中的支持率均领先。
The poll also found Democratic candidates leading among independent voters in every state surveyed.

与9月进行的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调相比,民主党候选人在七个州中的六个州提升了地位。阿拉斯加州是唯一的例外。尽管如此,民调也为共和党提供了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。
Democratic candidates improved their standing in six of the seven states compared with Times/Siena polls conducted in September. Alaska was the lone exception. Still, the poll offered some encouraging signs for Republicans.
在过去一个月内做出决定的选民以九个百分点的优势支持共和党候选人,且有几场竞选仍处于误差范围内。
Voters who made their decisions within the past month favored Republican candidates by nine points, and several races remain within the margin of error.
《纽约时报》还指出,2020年民调低估了柯林斯的支持率,当时她在所有民调中均落后,但最终舒适地赢得了连任。
The Times also noted that polling underestimated Collins in 2020, when she trailed in every survey before winning re-election comfortably.
民主党必须捍卫现有的参议院席位,并至少赢回四个共和党把持的席位,才能夺回参议院控制权。
Democrats must defend their existing Senate seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to capture control of the chamber.
这些针对可能选民的调查于10月23日至11月1日进行,各州层面的抽样误差范围从得克萨斯州的正负3.4个百分点到阿拉斯加州的正负5个百分点不等。
The surveys of likely voters were conducted from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1, with state-level margins of sampling error ranging from plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in Texas to 5 percentage points in Alaska.