两年后，民主党在参议院失去控制权，进入选举日时，在足够多的竞选中领先，若民调准确，有望夺回控制权。
Two years after losing control of the Senate, Democrats enter Election Day ahead in enough races to win it back — if the polls are right.
在2024年灾难性表现之后，上议院一度被认为遥不可及。民主党当年在参议院丢掉四个席位，不仅失去白宫，而且在众议院选举中也以三席之差未能获胜。要在周二夺回参议院，民主党必须在得克萨斯州、阿拉斯加州、北卡罗来纳州、爱荷华州或俄亥俄州翻转一些席位。除北卡罗来纳州外，这些州在2024年都以两位数的差距支持了唐纳德·特朗普总统。
After the party’s disastrous performance in 2024, the upper chamber had largely felt out of reach. Democrats bled four seats in the Senate that year, and they lost the White House while also falling short of winning the House by three seats. To take the Senate on Tuesday, Democrats have to flip some of the seats in Texas, Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa or Ohio. All of those states, except for North Carolina, voted for President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.
尽管地图困难，但根据FiftyPlusOne（MS NOW的民调数据合作伙伴）的民调，民主党有望翻转参议院。在乔治亚州、新罕布什尔州、明尼苏达州、密歇根州——这些席位是该党控制议院所需保持的——民主党在民调平均值中领先6到10个百分点，均在误差范围之外，根据FiftyPlusOne的数据。
Even with a difficult map, polls suggest Democrats are in a good place to flip the Senate, according to FiftyPlusOne, MS NOW’s polling data partner. In Georgia New Hampshire Minnesota Michigan— seats the party needs to hold to control the chamber — Democrats are ahead in the polling averages by 6 to 10 points, all outside the margin of error, according to FiftyPlusOne.
在缅因州、得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州的摇摆州，FiftyPlusOne分别将民主党领先幅度定为5、4、4和3个百分点。这些也都在误差范围之外。
In toss-ups Maine Texas Kansas Ohio FiftyPlusOne puts Democrats up by 5, 4, 4 and 3 points, respectively. They, too, sit out of the margin of error.
在阿拉斯加州，前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉试图击败共和党参议员丹·沙利文，FiftyPlusOne将佩尔托拉领先幅度定为2个百分点，但这在误差范围之内。
Alaska where former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, FiftyPlusOne puts Peltola up by 2 points, although it is within the margin of error.
爱荷华州和南卡罗来纳州的竞选势均力敌。只有在佛罗里达州和内布拉斯加州，FiftyPlusOne将共和党置于领先地位。佛罗里达州的民调平均值在误差范围之外，而内布拉斯加州的在误差范围之内。
Iowa South Carolina’s races are even. Only in Florida Nebraska does FiftyPlusOne put Republicans ahead. Florida’s polling average is outside the margin of error, while Nebraska’s is within it.
即使有试图纠正以往民调问题的努力，仍有担忧认为民调高估了民主党的投票率，部分原因是民主党总体上比共和党更有可能回应调查。在2020年，选举日前的每一项民调都将挑战缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯的民主党人置于领先地位。但在选举日，柯林斯以超过8个百分点的优势赢得连任。
Even with attempts to correct previous polling issues, there are still fears that polling overestimates Democratic turnout, in part because Democrats are overall more likely to respond to surveys than Republicans are. In 2020, every poll leading up to Election Day put the Democrat challenging Maine Sen. Susan Collins ahead. On Election Day, Collins won re-election by more than 8 points.
大多数民调误判并没有那个例子那么极端。2022年，民调曾预测一股“红色浪潮”将席卷华盛顿，因为当时总统乔·拜登的低支持率和经济困境对其造成打击。（听起来是不是很熟悉？）最终，民主党保住了参议院，但失去了在众议院的微弱多数。
Most polling misreads are not as extreme as that example. In 2022, polls predicted a red wave to sweep Washington as a low approval rating economic struggles battered then-President Joe Biden. (Sound familiar?) In the end, Democrats held the Senate while they lost their slim majority in the House.
在基层，民主党人感到士气高涨，但他们并不只依赖民调来把自己送过终点线。
On the ground, Democrats are feeling energized, but they are not relying on polls alone to carry them across the finish line.
密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德周日晚在接受MS NOW独家采访时说：“我是在按落后10个百分点的状态来竞选。”他说，在民调预测他将以压倒性优势战胜初选挑战者海莉·史蒂文斯后，他并不“非常认真”地看待民调。在密歇根州初选中，埃尔-赛义德以不到1个百分点的优势险胜。“各方面都有表明民主党人热情和活力的积极迹象，但在唐纳德·特朗普以两位数优势赢下的州竞争，意味着选情会一直胶着到最后，”与参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默结盟的参议院多数党政治行动委员会通讯主任劳伦·弗伦奇说。
“I’m running like I’m 10 points down,” said Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday night in an exclusive interview with MS NOW He said he does not take polls “very seriously” after they projected a commanding win over his primary challenger, Haley Stevens. In the Michigan primary, El-Sayed squeaked through to victory by less than 1 percentage point“There are positive signs for Democratic enthusiasm and energy across the board, but competing in states that Donald Trump won by double digits means tight races until the very end,” said Lauren French, communications director for the Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
对于寻求在参议院战场州动员选民的民主党人来说，提前投票 turnout 数据看起来不错。根据民主党数据公司TargetSmart收集的数据，在得克萨斯州，投票率比2022年同期上升了35%以上，而拉美裔选民投票率与当年相比激增了81%。
Early vote turnout data looks good for Democrats seeking to mobilize voters in the Senate’s battleground states. In Texas, turnout is up more than 35% compared with the same point in 2022, while Hispanic voter turnout has surged 81% compared with that year, according to data collected by TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm.
在俄亥俄州，与2022年同期相比，投票人数增加了28%。在阿拉斯加州，投票率上升了30%。在艾奥瓦州，上升了29%。
In Ohio, 28% more people have cast ballots compared with this point in 2022. In Alaska, turnout is up 30%. In Iowa, it is up 29%.
根据TargetSmart的数据，在全国范围内，与2022年此时相比，已有超过850万选民投了票，增加了20%。民主党参议院竞选委员会发言人汤米·加西亚说，这是因为选民“被点燃了”前往投票站并拒绝共和党。
Nationally, more than 8.5 million voters, or 20% more, have cast their ballots compared to this time in 2022, per TargetSmart. That is because voters are “fired up” to get to the polls and reject the Republican party, said Tommy Garcia, spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
但共和党并未因落后的民调平均值而气馁。“一切取决于投票率，”共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯周一上午在ABC新闻节目中表示，并补充说，共和党在基层的热情高涨，他相信该党将在周二晚间创造历史。毕竟，“唯一重要的民调是选举日，”他说。
But Republicans are not turned off by their trailing polling averages. “Everything comes down to turnout,” said Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters on ABC News Monday morning, adding that enthusiasm on the ground for the GOP is high and he believes the party will make history come Tuesday night. After all, “the only poll that matters is Election Day,” he said.
文章《大选前夕，参议院战场州民调告诉我们什么》 MS NOW
The post On the eve of the election, this is what the Senate battleground polling tells us MS NOW