大多数选举预测机构对今年美国众议院435个席位选举的大体走向看法一致。但《时代周刊》对10家权威预测机构的竞选评级进行分析后发现，在12场竞选中，部分机构看好民主党候选人，而另一些机构则看好共和党候选人。
Most election forecasters broadly agree on the direction of this year’s 435 U.S. House elections. But a TIME analysis of race ratings from 10 reputable forecasters found 12 contests where some favor the Democratic candidate while others favor the Republican.
这12场存在分歧预测的竞选分别位于：阿拉巴马州第2国会选区、科罗拉多州第5选区、肯塔基州第6选区、密歇根州第10选区、纽约州第17选区、俄亥俄州第7选区、宾夕法尼亚州第1选区、得克萨斯州第15和第35选区、弗吉尼亚州第1和第5选区，以及威斯康星州第1选区。
Those 12 conflicting forecasts are in the races for Alabama’s 2nd congressional district, Colorado’s 5th, Kentucky’s 6th, Michigan’s 10th, New York’s 17th, Ohio’s 7th, Pennsylvania’s 1st, Texas’ 15th and 35th, Virginia’s 1st and 5th, and Wisconsin’s 1st.
此次分析考察了以下机构的评级：库克政治报告、Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)、FiftyPlusOne (FPO)、福克斯新闻权力排名、Inside Elections (IE)、Race to the WH (RWH)、萨巴托水晶球、Silver Bulletin的FLIPR豪华模型 (SB)、Split Ticket (ST) 以及 (TE)。
The analysis examined ratings from Cook Political Report (CPR), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), FiftyPlusOne (FPO), Fox News Power Rankings (FNPR), Inside Elections (IE), Race to the WH (RWH), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB), Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model (SB), Split Ticket (ST), and (TE).
在阿拉巴马州第2国会选区，萨巴托水晶球认为该竞选倾向于民主党籍现任众议员肖马里·菲格斯，Split Ticket 将其评为“势均力敌”，而其他八家预测机构均看好共和党人雷特·马奎斯。
In Alabama’s 2nd congressional district, SCB says the race leans toward Democratic incumbent Rep. Shomari Figures, ST calls it a toss-up, and all eight other forecasters favor Republican Rhett Marques.
在科罗拉多州第5选区，萨巴托水晶球同样认为竞选倾向于民主党候选人杰西卡·基林，而福克斯新闻权力排名和 Split Ticket 认为倾向于共和党籍现任众议员杰夫·克兰克，DDHQ 和 TE 将该竞选评为“倾向共和党”。其余五家预测机构则称该竞选为“势均力敌”。
In Colorado’s 5th district, SCB also says the race leans toward the Democratic candidate, Jessica Killin, while FNPR and ST say it leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Crank, and DDHQ and TE rate the race as Likely Republican. The remaining five forecasters call the race a toss-up.
在肯塔基州第6选区，FPO 和萨巴托水晶球认为竞选倾向于共和党人拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多，而 Split Ticket 认为倾向于民主党人扎克·登博。其他七家预测机构将其评为“势均力敌”。（TE 使用“难以预料”这一术语，本分析将其视为等同于“势均力敌”评级。）在密歇根州第10选区，Inside Elections 认为竞选倾向共和党人迈克尔·布沙尔，而 DDHQ、FPO、萨巴托水晶球、SB 和 Split Ticket 均认为倾向民主党人克里斯蒂娜·海因斯。其余四家预测机构将其评为“势均力敌”。
In Kentucky’s 6th district, FPO and SCB say the race leans toward Republican Ralph Alvarado, while ST says it leans toward Democrat Zach Dembo. The other seven forecasters call it a toss-up. (TE uses the term “uncertain,” which this analysis treats as the equivalent of a toss-up rating.) In Michigan’s 10th district, IE says the race tilts toward Republican Michael Bouchard, whereas DDHQ, FPO, SCB, SB, and ST all say it leans toward Democrat Christina Hines. The remaining four forecasters call it a toss-up.
在纽约州第17选区，CPR和IE将共和党现任众议员迈克·劳勒与民主党人凯特·康利之间的竞争评为势均力敌。SCB认为该竞争倾向劳勒，而其他七家预测机构均看好康利。
In New York’s 17th district, CPR and IE rate the race between Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley as a toss-up. SCB says the race leans toward Lawler, while the other seven forecasters all favor Conley.
在俄亥俄州第7选区，RWH将共和党现任众议员马克斯·米勒与民主党人布莱恩·波因德克斯特之间的竞争评为倾向共和党。IE将其评为倾向民主党，SCB和ST评为倾向民主党，SB评为很可能民主党。其他五家预测机构称其为势均力敌。
In Ohio’s 7th district, RWH rates the contest between Republican incumbent Rep. Max Miller and Democrat Brian Poindexter as Tilt Republican. IE rates it as Tilt Democratic, SCB and ST as Lean Democratic, and SB as Likely Democratic. The other five forecasters call it a toss-up.
在宾夕法尼亚州第1选区，TE将共和党现任众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克与民主党人鲍勃·哈维之间的竞争评为很可能共和党，而SCB和SB称其倾向民主党，FPO将其评为很可能民主党。其他六家预测机构称该竞争为势均力敌。
In Pennsylvania’s 1st district, TE rates the race between Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Bob Harvie as Likely Republican, while SCB and SB say it leans Democratic, and FPO rates it Likely Democratic. The other six forecasters call the race a toss-up.
在得克萨斯州第15选区，FPO表示该竞争倾向共和党现任众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹。IE表示该竞争倾向民主党人博比·普利多，而SCB、SB和ST称其倾向民主党。其余五家预测机构称其为势均力敌。
In Texas’ 15th district, FPO says the race leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz. IE says the race tilts toward Democrat Bobby Pulido, while SCB, SB, and ST say it leans Democratic. The remaining five forecasters call it a toss-up.
在得克萨斯州第35选区，SCB和ST表示该竞争倾向民主党人约翰尼·加西亚，对阵共和党人卡洛斯·德拉克鲁兹。TE将该竞争评为很可能共和党。其他所有七家预测机构均称其为势均力敌。
In Texas’ 35th district, SCB and ST say the race leans toward Democrat Johnny Garcia over Republican Carlos De La Cruz. TE rates the race as Likely Republican. All seven other forecasters call it a toss-up.
在弗吉尼亚州第1选区，三家预测机构——FPO、SCB和SB——表示该竞争倾向民主党人香农·泰勒，对阵共和党现任众议员罗布·维特曼。IE、DDHQ和TE分别将该竞争评为倾向、倾向和很可能共和党。另外四家预测机构称其为势均力敌。
In Virginia’s 1st district, three forecasters—FPO, SCB, and SB—say the race leans toward Democrat Shannon Taylor over Republican incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman. IE, DDHQ, and TE rate the race as Tilt, Lean, and Likely Republican, respectively. And the other four forecasters call it a toss-up.
在弗吉尼亚州第5选区，SCB表示该竞争倾向民主党人汤姆·佩里耶洛。其他所有九家预测机构均看好共和党现任众议员约翰·麦奎尔三世——其中SB和TE分别将该竞争评为很可能和极可能共和党，而其他机构称其倾向共和党。
In Virginia’s 5th district, SCB says the race leans toward Democrat Tom Perriello. All nine other forecasters favor Republican incumbent Rep. John McGuire III—including SB and TE, which rate the race as Likely and Very Likely Republican, respectively, while the others say it leans Republican.
在威斯康星州第1选区，FPO认为该选区倾向民主党人米切尔·伯曼，而CPR、DDHQ、IE、RWH和SCB认为该选区倾向共和党现任众议员布赖恩·斯泰尔，TE将其评为“倾向共和党”。其余三家预测机构将其称为势均力敌。
In Wisconsin’s 1st district, FPO says the race leans toward Democrat Mitchell Berman, while CPR, DDHQ, IE, RWH, and SCB say it leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil, and TE rates it Likely Republican. The remaining three forecasters call it a toss-up.
在其余423个众议院选区中，182个被一致评为“安全民主党”或“稳固民主党”，另有31个被一致评为倾向民主党，尽管并非全部评为“安全”或“稳固”。在共和党方面，108个被一致评为“安全共和党”或“稳固共和党”，另有72个被一致评为倾向共和党，尽管并非全部评为“安全”或“稳固”。30个选区至少有一家预测机构将其评为势均力敌，但在倾向某一党派的预测机构中没有分歧：其中17个倾向民主党，13个倾向共和党。
Of the remaining 423 House races, 182 are unanimously rated Safe or Solid Democratic, and another 31 are unanimously rated in favor of Democrats, though not all as Safe or Solid. On the Republican side, 108 are unanimously rated Safe or Solid Republican, and another 72 are unanimously rated in favor of Republicans, though not all as Safe or Solid. Thirty races have at least one toss-up rating but no disagreement among forecasters who favor a party: 17 for Democrats and 13 for Republicans.
《时代》的分析反映了截至美国东部时间11月3日上午7点预测机构的评级。评级描述了预测机构基于民调和基本面假设对每个选区的评估，但并不代表必然结果。
TIME’s analysis reflects the forecasters’ ratings as of 7 a.m. ET, Nov. 3. Ratings describe the forecasters’ assessments of each race based on polling and fundamental assumptions, but they are not guaranteed outcomes.