非党派选举预测机构“萨巴托水晶球”在竞选最后一周将十多个众议院选区的评级向民主党倾斜，这是共和党政治环境持续恶化的又一迹象。
Nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball is shifting more than a dozen House races toward Democrats in the final week of the campaign, another sign of a worsening political environment for Republicans.
“水晶球”是弗吉尼亚大学政治中心的一个部门，近几周已将数十个选区的评级向民主党倾斜，仅10月一个月就调整了近50个选区。
Crystal Ball, a division of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has moved dozens of races toward Democrats in recent weeks, including nearly 50 races in the month of October alone.
这些调整包括将几个深红选区列入“胶着”行列。
The race changes include moving a few deep-red seats into the “toss up” column.
肯塔基州和蒙大拿州的无现任议员国会选区，以及密苏里州、弗吉尼亚州、科罗拉多州和宾夕法尼亚州共和党现任议员把持的选区，均进入五五开局面。
Open congressional districts in Kentucky and Montana, as well as seats with GOP incumbents in Missouri, Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania moved into coin flip territory.
水晶球评为胶着的许多选区，都是特朗普在2024年以两位数优势拿下的地方。
Many of the seats Crystal Ball rates as a toss-up were places Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
一个值得注意的调整是德克萨斯州第15国会选区，从“胶着”升为“倾向民主党”，现任共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹面临特哈诺音乐明星博比·普利多（民主党）的强劲挑战。
One notable race that moved from toss-up to “leans Democratic” is Texas’s 15th Congressional District, where Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R) is facing a tough challenge from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido (D).
与民主党试图守住重新划分后的红色选区的其他南德克萨斯选区不同，第15选区是共和党把持的选区，特朗普在2024年以近20个百分点的优势赢得该区。
Unlike the other South Texas districts where Democrats are trying to hold onto redrawn seats, the 15th is a Republican-held district that Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2024.
宾夕法尼亚州两个由共和党现任议员把持的众议院选区——第1和第8选区——连同另外两个竞争激烈的选区，评级均向民主党倾斜。
A couple of House seats in Pennsylvania with GOP incumbents — the 1st and the 8th — join two other competitive seats to move in Democrats’ direction.
水晶球显示，民主党单单在宾夕法尼亚州就可能赢得多达四个众议院席位——超过夺回众议院控制权所需的三个席位。
Crystal Ball shows that Democrats could pick up as many as four House seats in Pennsylvania alone — more than the three they need to flip control of the chamber.
该预测机构此前已判定民主党在足以控制众议院的席位上占据优势。
The forecaster already gave Democrats the edge in more than enough seats to take control of the House.
《国会山报》的合作伙伴“决策台总部”（DDHQ）给予民主党80%的几率赢得众议院多数派。
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of a House majority.
水晶球还将三个参议院选战和两场州长选战的评级向民主党倾斜。
Crystal Ball also moved three Senate races and two gubernatorial contests in Democrats’ direction.
佛罗里达州参议院选战从“稳操胜券（共和党）”降为“很可能（共和党）”，水晶球援引早期投票数字称对民主党有利。
The Florida Senate race moved from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican,” with Crystal Ball citing early voting numbers that look encouraging for Democrats.
参议员达琳·格雷厄姆争取在参议院赢得完整任期的竞选评级从“共和党很有优势”调整为“共和党有优势”，因为棕榈州的民调显示，她与民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯的竞争比预期更为激烈。
Sen. Darline Graham’s bid to win a full term in the Senate moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” as polling in the Palmetto State shows her in a closer-than-expected race against Democrat Annie Andrews.
而在北卡罗来纳州的参议院竞选中，Crystal Ball 将评级进一步向民主党倾斜，从“民主党有优势”调整为“民主党很有优势”。
And in the North Carolina Senate race, Crystal Ball moved its rating even further in Democrats’ direction from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
松柏州仍是民主党在参议院夺取席位的最佳机会，州长罗伊·库珀在竞逐该空缺席位的竞选中领先。
The Tar Heel State remains Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in the Senate, with Gov. Roy Cooper leading in the race for the open seat.
Crystal Ball 的凯尔·康迪克和迈尔斯·科尔曼在分析中写道，虽然民调显示参议院竞选胶着，但民主党处于领先地位。
Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and Miles Coleman wrote in their analysis that while polling shows a close race for the Senate, Democrats are ahead.
“截至目前，我们认为民主党掌握着赢得参议院多数席位的主动权，尽管优势微弱，仅为 51 或 52 个席位，”康迪克和科尔曼写道。
“As of this point, we are thinking the Democrats have the inside track to a Senate majority, albeit narrowly at 51 or 52 seats,” Kondik and Coleman wrote.
“但这些竞争都非常接近，我们希望在将剩余的‘难以预测’席位推向一方之前，先获取所有最终信息。”
“But these races are all close, and we want to take in all of the final information before pushing the remaining Toss-ups.”
Crystal Ball 是为数不多的在大选日前将所有“难以预测”席位都推向某一党派的主要预测机构之一。
Crystal Ball is one of the only major forecasters to push all of its toss-up races to lean toward one party before Election Day.
DDHQ 给民主党控制参议院的概率为 57%。
DDHQ gives Democrats a 57 percent chance to control the Senate.
向民主党倾斜的州长竞选分别在亚利桑那州和佛蒙特州：亚利桑那州民主党州长凯蒂·霍布斯的连任竞选评级从“民主党有优势”调整为“民主党很有优势”；佛蒙特州共和党州长菲尔·斯科特的竞选评级从“共和党很有优势”调整为“共和党有优势”。
The gubernatorial contests shifting toward Democrats are in Arizona, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs’s reelection bid shifted from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” and in Vermont, where Republican Gov. Phil Scott’s race shifted from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”
佛蒙特州通常是民主党的铁票仓，但作为温和派共和党人的斯科特过去轻松赢得连任。
Vermont is typically a solidly Democratic state, though Scott, a moderate Republican, has easily won reelection in the past.
最近的民调表明他可能面临激烈竞争，包括 State Navigate 周二发布的一项民调显示，斯科特在可能投票者中领先 3 个百分点。
Recent polls suggest he may be in a competitive race, including a State Navigate poll released Tuesday showing Scott up by 3 points among likely voters.