非党派选举预测机构“萨巴托水晶球”在距离中期选举仅剩两周之际，将28个众议院选区的评级向民主党倾斜。若将“水晶球”判定为安全、倾向或偏向某一党派的席位相加，新预测显示民主党将超过组建众议院多数党所需的218席。换言之，即便民主党输掉所有被评为“胶着”的选区，只要“水晶球”的评级准确，仍可赢得多数。
Nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving 28 House races in Democrats’ direction with just two weeks until the midterms. When adding up the seats Crystal Ball says are either safe, likely or leaning toward one party, the new projections put Democrats above the 218 needed for a House majority. In other words, Democrats could lose every race rated as “toss-up” and still win if Crystal Ball’s ratings prove accurate.
“水晶球”主编凯尔·康迪克在其分析中写道，如果民主党未能赢得规模可观的众议院多数，那将是一个“震惊”。“此时不仅共和党守住众议院会令人震惊，民主党若未能至少超过去三届国会那种微弱多数的规模，也会令人惊讶，”康迪克写道。
Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote in his analysis that it would be a “shock” if Democrats did not win a decently sized House majority. “At this point not only would it be a shock if Republicans held the House, but it would also be a surprise if Democrats did not at least exceed the tiny-sized majorities of the last three Congresses,” Kondik wrote.
该预测机构隶属于弗吉尼亚大学政治中心，将六个选区从“共和党安全”下调至“共和党倾向”，六个从“共和党倾向”下调至“共和党偏向”，一个从“共和党偏向”下调至“胶着”。另有九个选区从“胶着”上调至“民主党偏向”，六个从“民主党偏向”上调至“民主党倾向”。
The forecaster, a division of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, moved six races from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican,” six from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” and one race from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”It moved nine more races from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” and six from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
爱荷华州的变化最为引人注目，“水晶球”现将该州四个众议院席位中的三个评为“民主党偏向”。共和党目前占据“山楂州”所有四个众议院席位。
Among the most notable shifts are in Iowa, where Crystal Ball now rates three out of the state’s four House seats “leans Democratic.”Republicans currently hold all four of the Hawkeye State’s seats in the lower chamber.
“水晶球”还将亚利桑那州两个共和党把持的席位——第1和第6国会选区——上调至“民主党偏向”。该预测机构还将一些原本由民主党持有、但因共和党在十年中途重划选区而更易被翻转的席位，进一步推向民主党阵营。其中包括德克萨斯州第35国会选区（无现任议员竞选），评级从“共和党倾向”调整为“胶着”，以及众议员……唐·戴维斯（民主党）在北卡罗来纳州第1国会选区争取连任，该选区的评级已从“悬而未决”调整为“倾向民主党”。
Crystal Ball also moved two GOP-held seats in Arizona, the 1st and 6th congressional districts, to “leans Democratic." The forecaster also pushed some seats further into the Democrats’ column that their party already holds but are easier to flip following Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts. That includes the open Texas 35th Congressional District, which Crystal Ball moved from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” and Rep. Don Davis’s (D) bid to hold on in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, which went from a “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
在共和党人最近重新划定的15个选区中，仅有三个被评为“稳固共和党”。康迪克还指出，在一些预计不会竞争激烈的选区中，民主党有可能击败共和党现任议员。潜在的冷门胜选包括印第安纳州第5国会选区的维多利亚·斯巴茨众议员、内布拉斯加州第1国会选区的迈克·弗拉德众议员以及新泽西州第2国会选区的杰夫·范德鲁——一名前民主党人，于2020年转投共和党——的连任竞选。
Of the 15 seats Republicans recently redrew with more GOP-friendly lines, just three are rated “safe Republican.”Kondik also identified a handful of races where Democrats could upset Republican incumbents in districts not expected to be competitive. Potential upsets include includes the reelection bids Reps. Victoria Spartz in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Mike Flood in Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District and Jeff Van Drew — a former Democrat who switched parties in 2020 — in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District.
上述三场竞选均属于从“稳固共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”的六场竞选。“[民主党]候选人在上周末晚些时候公布的第三季度筹款报告中，在筹款上远远超过了共和党，削弱了共和党在外部支出方面的优势，”康迪克写道。“几乎每天都会有新的报告指出，共和党在本轮选举周期早期并未引起关注的某场竞选中出现新的担忧。”
All three of those are among the six races shifting from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”“[Democratic] candidates just swamped Republicans in third quarter fundraising reports released late last week, blunting a GOP outside spending edge,” Kondik wrote. “Seemingly each day brings a new report of some new concern for Republicans in a race that wasn’t on the radar earlier in the cycle.”