
根据CNN选民调查的初步全国结果,选民对国家现状、经济状况以及唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现普遍感到不满。
Voters are broadly unhappy with the state of the nation, the condition of the economy and President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to the preliminary national results of CNN’s Voter Poll.
全国约四分之三的选民表示,对国家目前的发展方向感到不满或更糟,其中约有40%的人形容自己感到愤怒。
Roughly three-quarters of voters nationally say they feel dissatisfied or worse with the way things are going in the country, with around 4 in 10 describing themselves as angry.
早期结果显示,这种不满主要由两个因素驱动:对特朗普的负面看法以及对当前经济状况的不满。这些动态究竟如何演变仍有待观察——尤其是在一些深红州,这些州已成为参议院竞选意外胶着的战场。
There are two factors driving that unhappiness, the early results suggest: negative views of Trump and dissatisfaction with current economic conditions. How precisely those dynamics play out remains to be seen — particularly in some of the deeply Republican states that have become home to unexpectedly competitive Senate races.
全国约六成选民不认可特朗普的工作表现,其中约半数表示强烈不认可。约五分之一在2024年支持特朗普的选民如今不认可他的表现。
Roughly 6 in 10 voters nationally disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with about half saying they disapprove strongly. About one-fifth of voters who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance.
表示通胀给他们带来困难的选民比例与2024年持平。但这一次,许多选民将责任直接归咎于特朗普。约三分之二的人认为他恶化了国家经济状况,大多数人将成本上升直接归因于他的政策,而非其控制范围外的因素。
The share of voters who say inflation has caused them hardship is similar to where it stood in 2024. But this time, many voters lay the blame directly on Trump. Around two-thirds say they feel he has worsened economic conditions in the country, with most attributing higher costs directly to his policies, rather than factors outside of his control.
大多数选民怀疑特朗普是否拥有正确的优先事项,并认为他将个人利益置于国家利益之上。尽管总统敦促其基本盘像他本人在选票上一样去投票,但不足五分之一的选民表示他们的众议院投票是为了支持特朗普,其余选民表示要么是为了反对特朗普投票,要么特朗普不是他们决定的因素。
Most voters doubt that Trump has the right priorities and say he puts his own interests above those of the country. And despite the president’s exhortations to his base to vote as though he were on the ballot, less than a fifth of voters say their House vote was cast in support of Trump, with the rest saying either that they were voting in opposition to Trump or that he was not a factor in their decision.
约四分之三的选民认为经济状况糟糕,约十分之九的选民表示生活成本是其投票选择的“关键”或主要因素。
Around three-quarters of voters call economic conditions bad, and roughly 9 in 10 say the cost of living was “crucial” or a major factor in their vote choice.
当被要求选择国家面临的最重要问题时,选民最可能说是经济,其次是民主状况——这是一个广泛的议题,通常包括民主党对特朗普的反对。相对较少的人将移民、医疗保健、外交政策或犯罪列为首要关切。
Asked to choose the most important issue facing the country, voters are most likely to say it’s the economy, followed by the state of democracy — a broad issue that often encompasses Democratic opposition to Trump. Relatively few call immigration, healthcare, foreign policy or crime their top concern.
CNN选民民调是前几年选民出口民调的继任者,它将选举日在投票站进行的传统面对面访谈与选举前几周在全国范围内进行的数万次访谈相结合。这种规模使民调成为了解今年选举中选民人口特征和政治观点的有力工具。而其调查结果最终将以最终基准——选举本身的结果——进行加权。
The CNN Voter Poll, a successor to previous years’ exit polls, combines traditional in-person interviews at polling places on Election Day with tens of thousands of interviews conducted nationwide in the weeks before the election. That scope makes the polls a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.
即便如此,选民出口民调仍然是民调,存在误差范围——这意味着它们最好被视为估算,而非精确测量。这一点对于最早的数字尤其如此,这些数字尚未根据最终选举结果进行调整。
Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results.
许多早期选民民调的调查结果与中期选举竞选期间观察到的政治动态相一致。选民对特朗普白宫头两年的不满超出了经济不满,大多数人认为其政府在移民执法方面走得太远,并且认为美国对伊朗采取军事行动的决定是错误的。
Many of the early Voter Poll findings align with political dynamics seen through the midterm campaign. Voters’ unhappiness with the first two years of this Trump White House go beyond economic discontent, with most saying his administration has gone too far on immigration enforcement and that the US made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran.
选民对华盛顿的不满并不仅限于行政部门。对国会和最高法院的看法也是负面的,两大政党的支持率均为负,共和党比民主党更深。在初步结果中,民主党在处理经济问题的信任度上略微领先于共和党——这是一个引人注目的数字,考虑到他们在过去选举周期中在这一问题上的劣势——大约五分之一的人表示不信任任何一个政党。
Voters’ unhappy views of Washington don’t stop with the executive branch. Views of Congress and the Supreme Court are also negative, and opinions of both political parties are underwater, the GOP more deeply so than the Democrats. In the initial results, Democrats hold a slight edge over the Republicans on trust to handle the economy — a striking number, given their disadvantage on this issue in past cycles — with roughly one-fifth saying they don’t trust either party.
选民们也对美国整体持悲观态度,大多数人预计下一代的生活将不如今天,只有大约三分之一的人表示经济体系对大多数美国人是公平的。
And voters also express pessimism about the US more broadly, with most expecting life for the next generation to be worse than life today, and only about one-third saying the economic system is fair to most Americans.