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华尔街日报

伊朗转向游击战术,力图重新掌控霍尔木兹海峡Iran Turns to Guerrilla Tactics in Bid to Reassert Grip on Strait of Hormuz

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船只停泊在阿曼海塞卜附近海域,靠近霍尔木兹海峡。Ships anchored off the coast of Khasab, Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz.

迪拜——伊朗正在动用其全部手段,试图阻止石油经霍尔木兹海峡流出,采用游击战术,以巩固该政权在冲突中迅速削弱的地位,并对在僵局谈判中的特朗普政府施压。

DUBAI—Iran is using everything in its arsenal to try to stop the flow of oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz, resorting to guerrilla tactics to shore up the regime’s fast-eroding position in the conflict and pile pressure on the Trump administration in deadlocked negotiations.

据地区官员、安全公司和分析人士称,过去几周,德黑兰已发射装载炸弹的水下无人机,发射火箭推进榴弹,并派出人员向船只贴放水雷,这是一场针对从波斯湾运出石油至等待油轮的船只的非对称行动的一部分。

Tehran has launched bomb-laden undersea drones, fired rocket-propelled grenades and deployed crews to attach limpet mines to ships over recent weeks, part of an asymmetric campaign targeting vessels that shuttle oil out of the Persian Gulf to waiting tankers, according to regional officials, security firms and analysts.

美军几乎每天都会开展行动,帮助船只和原油驶出海峡,同时维持对伊朗的封锁,这是一项昂贵的努力,但最近已使石油流量恢复到战前水平。

The U.S. military runs near-daily operations to help ships—and crude oil—get out of the strait while maintaining its blockade on Iran, an expensive effort that nevertheless recently returned flows to prewar levels.

伊朗阻断该逃生路线的战斗已成为更广泛的美伊冲突中的一场暗战,随着美军反击,这对全球能源价格产生直接影响。伊朗外交部发言人未回应置评请求。

The Islamic Republic’s battle to block that escape route has become a shadow war inside the wider U.S.-Iran conflict, with a direct impact on global energy prices as American forces have struck back. A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

《华尔街日报》报道,周一,美国作为一系列旨在阻止伊朗攻击美方资产和过往船只的未预先公布的小规模打击的一部分,攻击了伊朗的其什姆岛。

On Monday, the U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island as part of a series of unannounced small-scale strikes in the waterway aimed at halting Iranian attacks on American assets and passing ships, The Wall Street Journal reported.

周二,基准布伦特原油每桶交易价约为102美元,一加仑汽油平均价格约为4.15美元,当时美国选民正在参加中期选举投票。这高于战争前每桶略高于70美元的价格。

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday around $102 a barrel, with the average gallon of gasoline costing about $4.15 as American voters cast ballots in the midterm elections. That is up from just over $70 a barrel before the war.

欧亚集团高级伊朗和能源分析师格雷戈里·布鲁表示:“他们可以让局势保持暴力,可以让航运风险保持高位,可以让成本保持高位,可以让油价保持高位。”

“They can keep it violent, they can keep risks to shipping high, they can keep costs high, they can keep oil prices high,” said Gregory Brew, Eurasia Group’s senior Iran and energy analyst.

特朗普政府坚称其控制着海峡,该地区美军表示,该水道已清除伊朗水雷。

The Trump administration insists that it has control of the strait, and the U.S. military in the region says the waterway is cleared of Iranian mines.

“乔治·华盛顿”号航空母舰在阿拉伯海从另一艘船上接收补给。(埃德·欧/路透社)The USS George Washington receives supplies from another vessel in the Arabian Sea. (Ed Ou/Reuters)

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将上周飞越该海峡后表示,美国继续在这条狭窄水道进行巡逻,该水道在冲突爆发前是全球20%石油供应的通道。“我根本没看到伊斯兰革命卫队的身影,”库珀说,他使用的是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的缩写。

After flying over the strait last week, Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said the U.S. maintained its patrols through the narrow waterway, which before the conflict was the conduit for 20% of the world’s oil supplies. “I didn’t see the IRGC out there, at all,” Cooper said, using an acronym for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

10月是战争开始以来该海峡单月袭击次数最多的一个月,隶属于英国皇家海军的英国海事贸易行动中心记录了超过35起事件。该中心表示,11月迄今至少有五艘船只遭到袭击。

October marked the highest monthly number of attacks in the strait since the war began, with more than 35 incidents logged by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center, which is affiliated with the Royal Navy. At least five vessels have been struck so far in November, UKMTO said.

这些袭击旨在干扰该海峡的个别石油运输,并重新营造出冲突初期困扰船东的恐惧氛围,当时伊朗开始向该水道开火,并使该地区船舶贸易陷入瘫痪。伊朗与美国在6月达成一项协议,短暂重新开放了该海峡,但特朗普重新实施了美国对伊朗港口的封锁,两国互相指责对方违反协议。

The attacks are designed to disrupt individual oil shipments through the strait and to re-establish the climate of fear that gripped shippers at the start of the conflict when Iran began to fire into the waterway and paralyzed shipbound trade in the region. A deal reached between Iran and the U.S. in June reopened the strait briefly, though Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports as the two countries accused each other of violating the accord.

据伊朗国家媒体报道,数周来,伊斯兰革命卫队声称其在该海峡布设的水雷已损坏多艘商船。然而,海湾官员表示,这些说法旨在船东中制造恐慌,并对美国人的排雷行动产生怀疑,其最终目的是干扰石油流动。

For weeks, the IRGC has claimed that mines laid by its forces in the strait have damaged commercial ships, according to Iranian state media. However, Gulf officials say those assertions are designed to sow panic among shippers and doubts about the Americans’ demining effort, with the ultimate aim of disrupting the flow of oil.

这些官员表示,自8月下旬以来,伊朗一直使用水下炸弹携带海上无人机攻击多艘商船。德黑兰当局尚未承认这些袭击的具体性质,这很可能是为了暗示该海峡仍布满水雷。

Since late August, Iran has used underwater, bomb-carrying sea drones to attack several commercial vessels, the officials said. Authorities in Tehran haven’t acknowledged the specific nature of those attacks, likely as part of the effort to suggest mines still litter the strait.

海事专家表示,伊朗也已恢复使用水雷艇使船只瘫痪,这是该国在2019年部署的一种武器。周五,在阿曼以北的海峡水域,一艘小船靠近一艘油轮的左舷,在船体水线以上安装了两枚炸药。随后的爆炸在机舱引发火灾,并暂时使该船只瘫痪,英国海事贸易行动组织(UKMTO)表示。

Iran has also resumed the use of limpet mines to disable vessels, a weapon it deployed in 2019, maritime experts say. On Friday, in the waters of the strait just north of Oman, a small boat approached the port side of a tanker, attaching two explosives to the side of the hull above the waterline. The subsequent blasts caused a fire in the engine room and disabled the ship temporarily, UKMTO said.

霍尔木兹海峡中的格什姆岛。(尼古拉斯·伊科诺穆/路透社)Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz. (nicolas economou/Reuters)

美国海军表示,2019年,随着特朗普总统退出与德黑兰的核协议,紧张局势升级,伊朗在阿拉伯联合酋长国附近海域对船只使用了水雷艇。

The U.S. Navy said Iran used limpet mines against ships off the United Arab Emirates in 2019, as tensions rose over President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Tehran.

随着更多石油开始从海峡运出,伊朗袭击的范围和地点已扩大,袭击目标已超越油轮,打击集装箱船、散货船和液化气运输船,包括那些停泊在波斯湾其他海域海峡外的船只。

The scope and location of Iran’s attacks has expanded as more oil has started leaving the strait, going beyond tankers to strike containerships, bulk carriers and gas carriers including those anchored outside the strait elsewhere in the Persian Gulf.

分析师布鲁表示,伊朗不再依赖易受攻击的沿海雷达——这些雷达已多次遭到美国空袭——现在更倾向于使用人工观察员。

And, instead of relying on vulnerable coastal radars, which have been repeatedly targeted by U.S. airstrikes, Iran now favors human spotters, said Brew, the analyst.

在霍尔木兹海峡拥挤的渔船中秘密行动的小船船员,可以观察过往船只,并将目标信息传递给导弹和无人机操作员,这种监视方式对美军来说难以发现和破坏。

Crew on small boats operating clandestinely among the fishing craft that crowd Hormuz can observe passing vessels and relay targeting information to missile and drone operators, a type of surveillance that is difficult for U.S. forces to detect and disrupt.

一位熟悉伊朗袭击的阿拉伯官员表示,此类船只经常在商船遭袭海域附近徘徊。伊朗在战争中大部分海军被美军击沉,这可能使得使用民用船只变得更加必要。

An Arab official familiar with Iranian attacks said such vessels often loitered around areas where attacks on commercial vessels occurred. Iran has seen much of its navy sunk by the Americans during the war, likely making the use of civilian vessels more necessary.

伦敦国王学院海军作战专家阿莱西奥·帕塔诺表示:“伊朗可以以低成本造成重大破坏,而从众多沿海地点发动袭击的能力,使美军发现和防范这些袭击变得更加困难且耗时更长。”

“Iran can inflict significant damage at little cost, while the ability to launch attacks from numerous coastal locations makes it harder and more time consuming for U.S. forces to detect and prevent them,” said Alessio Patalano, a maritime warfare expert at King’s College London.

袭击激增与霍尔木兹海峡航运近期回暖出现放缓迹象相吻合,尽管最新的石油流量数据为初步数据,可能会上调。

The surge in attacks has coincided with signs that the recent recovery in shipping through Hormuz is faltering, although the latest oil-flow figures are preliminary and subject to upward revision.

根据船舶追踪机构Kpler的数据,包括相关船对船转运在内的海峡石油流量,在截至11月1日的一周内平均每天约780万桶,约为战前水平的45%。原油流量此前在10月初曾接近战前水平。

According to ship tracker Kpler, oil flows through the strait, including associated ship-to-ship transfers, averaged around 7.8 million barrels a day in the week through Nov. 1, around 45% of prewar levels. Crude flows had reached close to prewar levels earlier in October.

这项贸易变得异常昂贵:据总部位于巴黎的政府间能源监管机构国际能源署称,10月中旬,从波斯湾向亚洲运输原油的成本接近每桶37美元,超过战前水平的五倍。

The trade has become extraordinarily expensive: Shipping crude from the Gulf to Asia cost nearly $37 a barrel in mid-October, more than five times prewar levels, according to the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based intergovernmental energy watchdog.

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