尽管台湾问题可能带来潜在波动，美国中期选举不太可能对中美关系造成“颠覆性”冲击，一位著名的中国美国问题专家表示。
The United States’ midterm elections are unlikely to deliver a “disruptive” shock to relations between Beijing and Washington despite potential volatility over the issue of Taiwan, according to a prominent Chinese expert in US studies.
上海国际问题研究院院长陈东晓表示，美国国会构成的任何变化，主要会使总统唐纳德·特朗普的国内议程复杂化。
Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said any shift in the make-up of the US Congress would mainly complicate President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda.
他在周三发表的一篇采访中指出，外交政策的影响将是“相对有限”，因为白宫领导人在该领域仍保留相当大的裁量权。
The impact on foreign policy would be “relatively limited” as the White House leader would retain considerable discretion in that area, he pointed out in an interview published on Wednesday.
“中期选举可能重塑国会的政治格局，但不一定会对中美关系造成巨大的、颠覆性的打击，”陈东晓告诉《澎湃新闻》，这是一家由国有的上海联合媒体集团拥有的数字新闻媒体。
“The midterms may reshape the political landscape in Congress, but they won’t necessarily deliver a massive, disruptive blow to China-US relations,” Chen told The Paper, a digital news outlet owned by the state-run Shanghai United Media Group.
许多民调和评级预测，民主党有望在11月3日的投票中夺取众议院控制权，使特朗普在其第二任期剩余时间里成为跛脚鸭，尽管参议院的控制权仍悬而未决。
Many polls and ratings have projected that the Democrats are on track to flip the House of Representatives in the November 3 vote, leaving Trump a lame duck for the rest of his second term, although control of the Senate remains up for grabs.
即使民主党夺取两院，其核心目标也可能是在未来两年内限制特朗普的行政权力，而非专注于推翻其对华政策，陈东晓表示。
Even if Democrats take both chambers, their core objective will probably be to curb Trump’s executive power over the next two years rather than to focus on overturning his China policy, according to Chen.
“两党在对华战略上有相当大的共识，缺乏对现有框架进行全面逆转的动力，”他被引述表示。
“The two parties share considerable common ground on China strategy, leaving little impetus for a wholesale reversal of the existing framework,” he was quoted as saying.
“值得注意的是，在对台军售等具体问题上，国会长期以来对特朗普此前的延迟感到不满，”他警告说。“选举后，两党议员可能会施加更大的实际压力，推动对台军售。”不过，陈东晓补充说，特朗普在处理政治对手时往往不会完全受到两党反对的左右，并可能根据自己的判断推进政策。
“It is worth noting that on specific issues such as arms sales to Taiwan, Congress has long been dissatisfied with Trump’s earlier delays,” he warned. “After the election, lawmakers from both parties may exert greater practical pressure to push forward arms sales to Taiwan.”Still, Trump tended not to be swayed entirely by bipartisan opposition when dealing with political rivals and could push ahead with policies based on his own judgment, Chen added.
“只要他的精力没有被国内政治调查完全耗尽，国会也没有将对华政策作为首要攻击目标，他仍能在维持对华关系稳定方面发挥积极作用。”陈呼吁北京保持“战略定力”，同时认为，对华实施“硬约束”的“客观现实”是，双方都无法赢得核战争，也承受不起完全经济脱钩的代价。
“As long as his energy is not fully consumed by domestic political investigations and Congress does not make China policy its primary target, he can still play a positive role in keeping relations with China stable.”Chen called on Beijing to maintain “strategic composure” while seeing that a “hard constraint” on Washington was the “objective reality” that neither side could win a nuclear war or bear the cost of a complete economic decoupling.
北京视台湾为中国的一部分，必要时将以武力实现统一。包括美国在内的大多数国家不承认台湾是一个独立国家，但华盛顿反对任何以武力夺取该自治岛屿的企图，并承诺向其提供武器。
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.