美国再次响起核对抗的战鼓。周一，特朗普的忠实支持者、前福克斯新闻主持人塔克·卡尔森声称，美国正考虑对伊朗的“镐山”发动核打击，该地疑似是一个地下核设施。特朗普本人也未回避至少进行某种形式打击的可能性。如果特朗普执意这么做，后果可能远超伊朗，在特定天气条件下，放射性尘埃可能飘散至巴基斯坦，甚至印度西北部。
The drums of nuclear confrontation are beating once again in the US. On Monday, Donald Trump loyalist and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson claimed the US was considering a nuclear strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected underground nuclear site. Trump also did not shy away from the prospect of at least some form of strike. If Trump goes ahead, the consequences could extend far beyond Iran, with radioactive fallout potentially reaching Pakistan and even northwestern India under certain weather conditions.
但这存在一个巨大的“如果”。位于伊朗中部伊斯法罕省的镐山距离印度约2500公里。国防专家桑迪普·乌尼塔恩表示，尘埃的扩散范围将取决于多种因素，如核武器的当量、爆炸性质以及当前天气条件。即使条件具备，专家表示，经过这么远的距离，辐射暴露也会被稀释。马里奥·纳瓦尔分享的模型预测图显示：特朗普会对伊朗动用核武器吗？
But there is a big if. Located in Iran's central Isfahan province, Pickaxe Mountain is roughly 2,500 km from India. Defence expert Sandeep Unnithan said the extent of the fallout would depend on several factors, like the nuclear weapon's explosive yield, the nature of the detonation and prevailing weather conditions. Even if the conditions are met, experts said the exposure would be diluted over the distance. The model projection graphic shared by Mario NawfalWILL TRUMP NUKE IRAN?
在此之前，关键问题是特朗普是否会冒这个险。在过去几个月里，美国总统多次威胁，如果伊朗不达成结束战争的协议，就轰炸镐山。但到目前为止，他一直没有下令打击。此次，有相当多的议论称，美国中期选举结束后，美国和以色列可能会对伊朗发动更大规模的打击。关于对镐山发动打击的设想，是由特朗普本人提出的。
Before that, the key question is whether Trump will take the gamble. In recent months, the US President has repeatedly threatened to bomb Pickaxe Mountain if Iran failed to agree to a deal to end the war. However, he has held back on strikes so far. This time, there has been considerable buzz that the US and Israel might strike Iran with greater force after the midterm elections in America. The spectre of strikes on Pickaxe Mountain was floated by Trump himself.
周一，特朗普在接受记者采访时表示，美国已经摧毁了伊朗大部分核能力，但仍需瞄准剩余的一两个地点。“我们可能得去打击镐山。我们可以在一小时内完成，随时可以做，任何时候都可以，”特朗普对福克斯新闻说。同一天，前福克斯新闻主持人卡尔森暗示，特朗普可能距离下令发动核打击仅几天之遥。
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said the US had destroyed much of Iran's nuclear capabilities, but still needed to target one or two remaining sites." We might have to go after Pickaxe. We can do that in one hour, as soon as we want, at any time we want," Trump told Fox News.
卡尔森表示，核打击是唯一的军事选择，因为常规美国武器无法穿透该地点地下隧道上方“300英尺厚的坚固花岗岩”。“目标将是镐头山……以色列情报机构声称，伊朗政府已在那里重启其核浓缩计划，”这位保守派政治评论员说。然而，他没有提供任何证据。他耸人听闻的说法还涉及印度和巴基斯坦。卡尔森说，美国的打击可能会将放射性污染扩散到整个波斯湾。
The same day, Carlson, the former Fox News host, suggested that Trump may be days away from ordering a nuclear strike. Carlson said a nuclear strike was the only military option as conventional US weapons would not be able to penetrate the "300 feet of solid granite" protecting underground tunnels at the site." The target would be Pickaxe Mountain... where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program," the conservative political commentator said. However, he did not provide any evidence. His alarmist claims also involved India and Pakistan.
他强调，这有可能引发涉及俄罗斯、印度、巴基斯坦和朝鲜的核冲突，并可能导致第三次世界大战。他还声称，特朗普几乎每天都受到以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的“施压”，要求打击镐头山。“在内塔尼亚胡的施压下，特朗普政府可能在几天之内就对伊朗发动核打击，”卡尔森说。然而，这位特朗普忠实支持者的耸人听闻的说法在社交媒体上遭到广泛嘲笑。
Carlson said a US strike could spread radioactive contamination across the Persian Gulf. This, he underlined, risked triggering a nuclear conflict involving Russia, India, Pakistan and North Korea, and potentially lead to World War III. He also alleged that Trump was being "pressured" almost daily by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to strike Pickaxe. "Under pressure from Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran," Carlson said.
卡尔森没有提及任何美国官员来支持他的说法。他的警告在很大程度上依赖匿名消息来源。几周前，特朗普在接受新闻最大电视台采访时表达了不同的看法。“我不会使用核武器。我们不必这样做，”特朗普说。今年早些时候，在镐头山附近发现了重大活动（万托尔）什么是伊朗的镐头山？特朗普和卡尔森的连番言论，将伊朗的镐头山推入了聚光灯下。
However, the alarmist claims by the Trump loyalist have been widely derided on social media. Carlson has not named any US official to back his claims. His warnings rely largely on anonymous sources. A couple of weeks ago, Trump struck a different note in an interview with Newsmax. "I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to," Trump said.
情报机构认为，伊朗已将部分用于制造核武器的浓缩铀储备储存在该加固设施中。然而，其中大部分是道听途说。该设施埋藏在一座大山下方328英尺处，笼罩在神秘和猜测之中。事实上，它比伊朗另外两个关键核浓缩设施福尔多和纳坦兹更深，这两个设施去年遭到了轰炸。在轰炸中，美国使用了地穴炸弹或GBU-57。
Significant activity was seen near Pickaxe Mountain earlier this year (Vantor)WHAT IS IRAN'S PICKAXE MOUNTAIN? The back-to-back remarks by Trump and Carlson have brought Iran's Pickaxe Mountain into focus. Intel agencies believe Iran has stored part of its enriched uranium stockpile, used to make nuclear weapons, at the fortified facility. However, much of it is hearsay. The facility, buried 328 feet under a large mountain, is shrouded in mystery and speculation.
然而，它们只能穿透60英尺。这就是为什么核打击可能是摧毁镐山的唯一选择。一名妇女在德黑兰走过一块广告牌，广告牌上描绘了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普身处监狱牢房的情景。核打击的放射性尘埃能否到达印度？然而，地缘政治专家马里奥·纳夫勒表示，其放射性尘埃可能扩散到海湾、阿富汗和巴基斯坦，较低浓度可能到达印度部分地区。
It is, in fact, deeper than Iran's two other key nuclear enrichment complexes at Fordo and Natanz, which were bombed last year. For the bombing, the US used its bunker-buster bombs or GBU-57s. However, they can penetrate only 60 feet. This is why a nuclear strike might be the only option to destroy Pickaxe Mountain.A woman walks past a billboard depicting US President Donald Trump inside a prison cell, in TehranCAN FALLOUT OF NUCLEAR STRIKE REACH INDIA? Its radioactive fallout, however, could spread across the Gulf, Afghanistan and Pakistan, with lower concentrations potentially reaching parts of India, geopolitical expert Mario Nawfal said.
纳夫勒分享了一种基于模型的投射，模拟美国对镐山发动假设性核打击的情形。根据该投射，印度西北部的部分地区，包括旁遮普邦、拉贾斯坦邦、查谟-克什米尔和古吉拉特邦，可能会接收到较低浓度的放射性尘埃。然而，这将取决于多种因素，包括有多少周围材料（如岩石、土壤和碎片）被吸入爆炸，以及风向模式。
Nawfal shared a model-based projection of a hypothetical US nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain. As per the projection, parts of northwest India, including Punjab, Rajasthan, J&K and Gujarat, could receive lower concentrations of radioactive fallout. However, this would depend on several factors, including how much surrounding material, such as rock, soil, and debris, is drawn into the explosion, as well as wind patterns.
放射性颗粒可以传播数百英里，尽管其浓度和辐射强度会随扩散而下降。根据国际原子能机构（IAEA）的说法，虽然较大的放射性颗粒倾向于沉降在爆炸地点附近，但较小的颗粒可以在空气中悬浮更长时间并传播更远的距离。现在，如果美国确实对镐山发动核打击，且风将放射性云团向东吹送，国防专家桑迪普·乌尼塔告诉IndiaToday.in，阿富汗和巴基斯坦可能受影响最大。
Radioactive particles can travel hundreds of miles, although their concentration and radiation intensity decline as they spread. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), while larger radioactive particles tend to settle closer to the explosion site, smaller particles can remain suspended in the air for much longer and travel greater distances. Now, if the US does nuke Pickaxe Mountain and winds carry the radioactive cloud eastwards, Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to be most affected, defence expert Sandeep Unnithan told IndiaToday.in.
事实上，该模型预测巴基斯坦北部和西部地区风险更高。根据风向和风速，放射性颗粒可能进一步传播到印度西北部。“如果核武器在伊朗上空引爆，大部分放射性物质将局限于爆炸现场附近，”乌尼塔说。“部分放射性物质会因风向向东传播，进入巴基斯坦和印度西北部。”
In fact, the model predicts higher risk in Pakistan's northern and western areas. Depending on the direction and speed of winds, radioactive particles could potentially travel further towards northwestern India." If a nuclear weapon is detonated over Iran, a majority of the radioactivity would be confined to the immediate vicinity of the blast," Unnithan said." Some of the radioactivity would travel eastwards - because of the winds - into Pakistan and northwestern India.
但这些物质的数量会被稀释——达到所谓的“痕量级”——即微量的量，”他进一步表示。另一个关键因素是降雨，它会影响放射性颗粒的沉降位置。降雨量大的地区可能会出现局部污染程度较高的区域。SB Asthana少将（退役）表示，任何核选项对伊朗来说将是“灾难性”的，随后对美国也是如此。“将会有多重影响。放射性波浪将传播到其盟友，如巴基斯坦、科威特、约旦等国。这也将为俄罗斯用核武器打击基辅、结束战争打开选项，”Asthana在推特上写道。
But the quantities of these would be diluted - to what are called 'trace levels' - the minutest quantities," he further said. Another key factor is rain, which can influence where radioactive particles are deposited. Regions receiving heavy rain may see localised areas of higher contamination. Major General SB Asthana (retd) said any nuclear option would be "catastrophic" for Iran immediately and also for the US thereafter." There will be several implications.
因此，在特朗普决定按下核按钮打击伊朗之前，他必须牢记，这不会仅仅是一场局部灾难。放射性和地缘政治的双重后果，可能会在伊朗边界之外产生更广泛的影响。- 结束
The radioactive waves will travel to its allies like Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan etc. It will also open the option for Russia to strike Kyiv with nuke and finish the war," Asthana tweeted. Thus, before Trump decides to press the nuke button to strike Iran, he will have to keep in mind that it would not remain a localised disaster. The fallout, both radioactive and geopolitical, could have wider consequences beyond Iran's borders.- Ends