外交还是新一轮空袭？这是美国总统特朗普面临的问题，因为压力日益增大，要求华盛顿在11月3日中期选举后恢复对伊朗的军事行动。据报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡正推动对德黑兰发动新的打击，他的政治地位因联盟在以色列最近的选举中未能赢得议会多数席位而受到削弱。
Diplomacy or another round of airstrikes? That is the question facing US President Donald Trump as pressure mounts for Washington to resume military operations against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly pushing for fresh strikes against Tehran, with his own political position weakened after his coalition failed to secure a parliamentary majority in Israel's recent elections.
他的集团在120个席位的议会中赢得了53个席位，未能达到组建政府所需的61个席位。美国媒体的报道以及亲近特朗普政府的政治观察家的评论表明，内塔尼亚胡正在向美国总统施压，希望对伊朗发动毁灭性打击，期望新的军事行动能推动以色列对立政治派别走向联合安排，并帮助他继续执政。
His bloc won 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling short of the 61 needed to form a government. Reports in US media and commentary by political watchers close to the Trump administration suggest that Netanyahu is building pressure on the US President for a shattering strike on Iran in the hope that a renewed military campaign could push rival Israeli political factions towards a unity arrangement and help him stay in power.
两位领导人在10月31日星期六的电话通话中讨论了恢复军事行动的可能性。
The two leaders discussed the possibility of renewed military action during a phone conversation on Saturday, October 31.
与此同时，特朗普似乎倾向于给予谈判更多时间，但也重新威胁要发动“大打击”，这些言论被广泛解读为可能对伊朗“镐山”的核相关设施发动打击。
Meanwhile, Trump, while seemingly inclined to give negotiations more time, has also renewed threats of "the big one", comments that have widely been interpreted as a potential strike on a nuclear-linked facility at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain.
据信，镐山设有伊朗的核浓缩设施，位于一个高度防御的地下综合体中，军事观察家认为摧毁它可能需要核打击。打击即将来临？
Pickaxe Mountain is believed to host Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities in a heavily fortified underground complex that military watchers believe may require a nuclear strike to destroy. STRIKE LOADING?
据Axios报道，特朗普和内塔尼亚胡在周六的电话通话中讨论了恢复军事行动的可能性。
According to a report by Axios, Turmp and Netaynahu discussed the possibility of renewed military action during a phone conversation on Saturday.
以色列和美国消息人士向该媒体透露，内塔尼亚胡希望华盛顿在中期选举后立即对伊朗发动打击，而特朗普目前更倾向于给外交更多时间。以色列消息人士将这次谈话描述为“艰难”，而美国消息人士则称其为“直接”。据Axios报道，特朗普正在推行平行的外交和军事选项。在他政府试图与德黑兰重启谈判的同时，也在为选举后可能恢复重大战斗行动做准备。
Israeli and US sources told the publication that Netanyahu wants Washington to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections, while Trump currently prefers to give diplomacy more time. The Israeli source described the conversation as "tough", while the US source called it "direct." Trump is pursuing parallel diplomatic and military options, according to Axios. While his administration is attempting to restart negotiations with Tehran, preparations are also being made for a possible resumption of major combat operations after the elections.
总统还多次提到“镐头山”，这是一个位于伊朗纳坦兹核设施附近的高度防御的地下地点。镐头山位于德黑兰以南约220公里处。
The President has also repeatedly referred to Pickaxe mountain a heavily fortified underground site near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex. Pickaxe mountain is located around 220 km south of Tehran.
周六在对记者讲话时，特朗普说与伊朗的谈判“进行得不错”，他“并不十分着急”。不过，他补充说，华盛顿仍需“处理”伊朗的一两个核设施。
Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Trump said negotiations with Iran were "going fine" and that he was "not in much of a hurry". However, he added that Washington still needed to "take care" of one or two Iranian nuclear sites. "We can do that in 10 minutes.
“我们可以在10分钟内完成。我们已经制定了计划。你可以看看镐头山。我们需要处理它。我们可以非常快地完成，”特朗普说。
We have that planned. You can look at Pickaxe mountain. We need to take care of that.
美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥一直坚称，特朗普尚未就进一步的军事行动做出决定，并更倾向于外交解决方案，福克斯新闻报道。什么是镐头山，这个与伊朗核计划有关的地点？
We can do that very quickly," Trump said. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has maintained that Trump has not made a decision on further military action and prefers a diplomatic solution, Fox News reported. WHAT IS PICKAXE MOUNTAIN, THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR-LINKED SITE?
镐头山，也称为库赫-科兰格兹拉，位于德黑兰以南约220公里处，靠近纳坦兹核设施。
Pickaxe mountain, also known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is located around 220 km south of Tehran and close to the Natanz nuclear complex.
该地点被认为包含一个山体内部深埋的隧道网络，并与伊朗的核计划有关联。
The site is believed to contain a network of deeply buried tunnels inside a mountain and has been linked to Iran's nuclear programme.
据科学与国际安全研究所（ISIS）称，该设施的建设始于2020年。
According to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), construction of the facility began in 2020.
主隧道群估计位于山体下方至少100米处。它有四个入口，部分区域使用混凝土和土层加固。该地点周围还设有大型安全警戒区，包括围栏、围墙和巡逻路线。该设施的确切运行状态以及内部设备的性质仍不确定。
The main tunnel complex is estimated to be at least 100 metres beneath the mountain. It has four entrances, with some sections reinforced using layers of concrete and earth. The site is also surrounded by a large security perimeter, including fencing, walls and patrol routes. The facility's exact operational status and the nature of the equipment inside remain uncertain.
ISIS在10月16日发表的一份评估报告中称，10月7日的卫星图像显示，东部隧道入口仍被土方堵塞，西部入口附近仍设有路障。
In an assessment published on October 16, ISIS said satellite images from October 7 showed that the eastern tunnel entrances remained blocked by earth, while roadblocks were still in place near the western entrances.
该组织表示，受限的进入表明该设施尚未投入运营，且在观察期间并未继续进行重大建设。
The organisation said the restricted access indicated that the facility was not operational, and that major construction had not continued during the period observed.
不过，它也指出，有价值的设备或材料，包括离心机和部件，可能在早前的袭击后被转移到了隧道内。
However, it noted that valuable equipment or materials, including centrifuges and components, may have been moved into the tunnels after earlier attacks.
特朗普此前曾威胁要袭击“镐头山”特朗普多次警告称，美国可能会打击这个地下设施。
TRUMP HAS THREATENED TO STRIKE PICKAXE MOUNTAIN BEFORE Trump has repeatedly warned that the United States could target the underground facility.
7月13日，在接受保守派电台主持人休·休伊特采访时，他说华盛顿正在监控该地点，并暗示该地点可能会被打击。
On July 13, during an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, he said Washington was monitoring the site and suggested it could be hit.
“我们对它有监视，镐头山可能是朝正门来一记漂亮的大胖子的一枚可能目标，”特朗普说。
"We have eyes on it and Pickaxe mountain is a possible target for a nice big fat shot right in the front door," Trump said.
他后来发出了更直接的警告，称：“我们将摧毁镐头山。告诉伊朗人做好准备。”镐头山一直是特朗普关注的地方。
He later issued a more direct warning, saying: "We're going to take out Pickaxe mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready." Pickaxe mountain has always been a place of interest for Donal Trump.
7月21日，特朗普再次威胁要打击该地区，称美国将“很快且猛烈地”打击该地。他还暗示伊朗可能已将核离心机转移到该地点，但表示华盛顿主要追踪核材料。这些威胁引起了人们对打击深埋在山体内部设施的难度的关注。
On July 21, Trump again threatened to strike the area, saying the US would hit it "pretty soon and very heavily". He also suggested that Iran might have moved nuclear centrifuges to the site but said Washington was primarily tracking nuclear material. The threats have drawn attention to the difficulty of targeting a facility buried deep inside a mountain.
重达14吨的GBU-57大型穿甲炸弹是美国军备中最大的非核地堡穿透炸弹，旨在穿透加固的地下结构。然而，镐头山的深度和建设可能使直接攻击变得具有挑战性。美国对伊朗“镐山”发动攻击会是什么样子？
The 14-tonne GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the largest non-nuclear bunker-busting bomb in the US arsenal, is designed to penetrate fortified underground structures. However, the depth and construction of Pickaxe mountain could make a direct attack challenging. WHAT COULD A US ATTACK ON IRAN'S PICKAXE MOUNTAIN LOOK LIKE?
科学与国际安全研究所7月14日的一份评估概述了该设施可能存在的脆弱性，并讨论了攻击可能如何实施。该报告审查了空袭和潜在地面行动两种方案。
A July 14 assessment by the Institute for Science and International Security outlined possible vulnerabilities at the facility and discussed how an attack could be carried out The report examined both aerial strikes and a potential ground operation.
- 空袭空中突袭是该评估中讨论的选项之一。攻击不必仅仅依赖对山体本身的直接打击，还可以针对与地下综合体相连的基础设施。
- Air attack An aerial assault is one of the options discussed in the assessment. Rather than relying solely on a direct strike against the mountain, an attack could target infrastructure connected to the underground complex.
这些脆弱性包括供电线路、通风系统和隧道入口。报告指出，两个西侧隧道入口在2026年7月9日的卫星图像中仍然开放，因此可能成为潜在目标。
These vulnerabilities include power supply lines, ventilation systems and tunnel entrances. The report noted that two western tunnel entrances remained open in satellite imagery from July 9, 2026, making them potential targets.
该评估还将此与此前美国对伊朗福尔多和沙希德·博鲁杰尔地下设施的攻击进行了比较。在这些行动中，通风井是美国打击瞄准的脆弱点之一。然而，仅摧毁隧道入口可能无法完全使该设施瘫痪。
The assessment also drew comparisons with earlier attacks on Iran's Fordow and Shahid Boroujerdi underground facilities. In those operations, ventilation shafts were among the vulnerabilities targeted by US strikes. However, destroying tunnel entrances alone may not completely disable the facility.
根据报告，如果打击在隧道内部产生的冲击不足，可能会暂时限制进入，但不会永久摧毁地下综合体。
According to the report, strikes that do not generate sufficient impact inside the tunnels could temporarily restrict access without permanently destroying the underground complex.
科学与国际安全研究所最近的一份评估于10月16日发布，讨论了将地堡穿透武器与对隧道入口和外部基础设施的攻击相结合的可能性。
A more recent ISIS assessment, published on October 16, discussed the possibility of combining bunker-busting weapons with attacks on tunnel entrances and external infrastructure.
该评估还提到了可能使用“所有炸弹之母”（MOAB），这是一种能产生强大冲击波的常规武器，以损坏地下场地。
It also referred to the potential use of the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB), a conventional weapon that produces a powerful shockwave, to damage the underground site.
该组织表示，此类攻击可能迫使该设施进入受监控的关闭状态，尽管山体内部损坏的程度可能仍不明确。
The organisation said such an attack could force the facility into a monitored closure, although the extent of the damage inside the mountain might remain unclear.
- 地面行动地面行动将给美军带来不同的挑战。7月份的评估指出，该设施现有的布局和安保安排可能使其成为地面部队试图使地下综合体瘫痪或破坏的潜在目标。
- Ground operation A ground operation would present a different set of challenges for US forces. The July assessment noted that the facility's existing layout and security arrangements could make it a potential target for ground forces seeking to disable or sabotage the underground complex.
然而，此类行动将使美方人员面临重大风险。伊朗军队可能会对入侵做出反应，而缺乏公开可用的内部隧道示意图将使任何试图在设施内导航的尝试变得复杂。该报告还强调了隧道入口周围可能存在防御措施的可能性。
However, such an operation would expose American personnel to significant risks. Iranian military forces could respond to an incursion, while the absence of publicly available internal tunnel schematics would complicate any attempt to navigate the facility. The report also highlighted the possibility of defensive measures around the tunnel entrances.
因此，地面行动将涉及相当大的不确定性，尤其是仅凭卫星图像难以评估地下结构。
A ground operation would therefore involve considerable uncertainty, particularly given the difficulty of assessing the underground structure from satellite imagery alone.
该评估并未确定华盛顿已批准地面突袭。它也没有暗示攻击该设施需要使用核武器。对伊朗发动核打击？
The assessment did not establish that Washington had approved a ground assault. Nor did it suggest that a nuclear weapon would be necessary to attack the facility. NUCLEAR STRIKE ON IRAN?
军事行动重启的可能性也引来了保守派评论员塔克·卡尔森的批评，他警告说，内塔尼亚胡可能正在推动特朗普政府对“镐山”发动核打击。尽管卡尔森反对美国当前的对伊朗政策，但他被认为与特朗普政府关系密切。
The possibility of renewed military action has also drawn criticism from conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who warned that Netanyahu could be pushing the Trump administration towards a nuclear strike on Pickaxe mountain. Carlson, despite his opposition to the US's current policy on Iran, is believed to be close to the Trump administration.
在X平台的一篇帖子中，卡尔森声称常规武器可能不足以摧毁地下设施，并暗示可以考虑使用核武器。
In a post on X, Carlson claimed that conventional weapons might not be sufficient to destroy the underground facility and suggested that a nuclear weapon could be considered.
然而，他并未提供可独立核实的证据，证明美国政府正在筹划此类攻击。
However, he did not provide independently verifiable evidence that the US administration was preparing such an attack.
在以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的施压下，特朗普政府可能在几天之内就对伊朗发动核打击。目标是伊朗中部的皮克萨克斯山，以色列情报机构声称，伊朗政府已在那里重启核浓缩计划。美国军械库中没有任何常规武器能够穿透300英尺厚的花岗岩，摧毁据称正在进行浓缩的隧道。唯一的军事选择是核打击。内塔尼亚胡一直在大力推动此事。
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one.
“比比每天都就此事给特朗普打电话，”一位知情人士说。内塔尼亚胡已陷入绝境，万分绝望。在上周的选举结果出来后，除非特朗普直接干预以色列政治，并与其他政党达成协议，让内塔尼亚胡在议会获得61个席位，否则他无法组建政府。否则，他将失去总理职位，走向耻辱、调查，甚至可能入狱。内塔尼亚胡必须与特朗普保持密切关系。
“Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump.
他需要这场战争。为此，他对其在政府中的最亲密盟友施加了最大压力，包括国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯和美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀。两人都反对就他们严重管理失当的战争达成和解协议；两人都在推动重启重大战斗行动。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫也在追随内塔尼亚胡的领导，民主党领导人也是如此。
He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party.
在最近一次关于此事的会议上，前总统贝拉克·奥巴马表示，他反对目前在多哈起草的伊朗和平协议。美国在中东的其他长期盟友对更多战争的前景感到恐惧。9月27日，内塔尼亚胡秘密飞往阿布扎比，试图争取阿联酋支持他对伊朗发动最终攻击的游说努力。阿联酋拒绝了。经过八个月的冲突，海湾经济正在摇摇欲坠。全球能源和肥料市场也是如此。它们不会很快恢复。
In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon.
全球共有约850艘超级油轮用于将石油从生产国运往世界各地。仅在10月，其中11艘在霍尔木兹海峡遭到严重损坏。按此速度，全球经济萧条即将来临。核打击将极大加速这种毁灭。皮克斯山地面爆炸产生的核辐射将污染波斯湾，毒害1亿人的供水。而这只是该地区面临的部分直接后果。世界其他地区同样面临风险。除美国外，没有任何国家在战争中使用过核武器。
Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war.
有些国家想要这么做。美国对伊朗发动核攻击将树立新的先例。俄罗斯已经向至少两个其他政府表示，美国对伊朗发动核打击将使他们有理由对乌克兰使用核武器。巴基斯坦和印度可能会诱使彼此对方使用核武器，朝鲜也可能对首尔这样做。第一次核打击之后，第三次世界大战不可避免。那场战争将短暂而最终。我们已经在这个问题上睡梦中行走数月。
Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months.
自2月以来，政府悄悄重写了美国的核学说，使使用所谓的“战术核武器”更容易，因此也更可能。华盛顿两党似乎都对此毫不在意。现在我们正处于边缘。密切观察者表示，特朗普可能会在下周末之前决定是否使用核武器。那就是11月7日，距今还有六天。值得称赞的是，他正在犹豫。目前，特朗普正在听取副总统JD·万斯以及他的特使兼朋友史蒂夫·维特科夫的意见，两人都主张可以与伊朗达成协议。
Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
他们说得对，尽管不会简单。伊朗人在任何情况下都以难以谈判著称，自2月阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其家人被杀以来，该国政府的一些派别变得更加激进。
They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February.
数十年的孤立之后，即使是相对温和的伊朗领导人似乎也对西方的决策方式感到困惑。例如，德黑兰普遍存在一种看法，即美国政府控制着以色列。但总体而言，与伊朗决策者交谈过的人表示，那里存在共识，认为更多战争对每个人都不利，达成协议是值得的。迄今为止，尚未被咨询的一个群体是全球人口——如果特朗普被内塔尼亚胡推动在下周发动核打击，数亿人将与他们的孩子一起丧生。
After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week.
现在正是他们发声的时候。——塔克·卡尔森（@TuckerCarlson）2026年11月2日 卡尔森此前是特朗普的知名支持者，也是MAGA运动中有影响力的声音。
Now would be the time for them to speak up.— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) November 2, 2026 Carlson was previously a prominent supporter of Trump and an influential voice within the MAGA movement.
他支持特朗普2024年的总统竞选，在共和党全国代表大会上称他为“了不起的人”，并与他一同竞选。此后，由于特朗普决定对伊朗采取军事行动，两人的关系恶化。
He backed Trump's presidential campaign in 2024, described him as a "wonderful person" at the Republican National Convention and campaigned alongside him. Their relationship has since deteriorated over Trump's decision to pursue military action against Iran.
卡尔森批评了总统的做法，指责他放弃了“美国优先”的立场，并反对美国进一步卷入这场冲突。
Carlson has criticised the President's approach, accusing him of abandoning his "America First" position and opposing further US involvement in the conflict.
2026年4月，卡尔森还向观众道歉，承认自己曾误导他们关于特朗普的情况，他说：“我想说，我为误导人们感到抱歉。这不是故意的。”
In April 2026, Carlson also apologised to his audience for having misled them about Trump, saying: "I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people. It was not intentional."
卡塔尔斡旋的谈判继续，伊朗考虑美国的接触 尽管新的打击可能性仍在讨论中，结束冲突的外交努力仍在继续。
QATAR-MEDIATED TALKS CONTINUE AS IRAN CONSIDERS US OUTREACH While the possibility of fresh strikes remains under discussion, diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are continuing.
美国副总统JD·万斯最近向伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫森·雷扎伊发了一封信，内容涉及重启谈判的可能性。雷扎伊确认已收到并阅读了信件，但尚未回复。
US Vice President JD Vance recently sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, regarding the possibility of restarting negotiations. Rezaei confirmed that he had received and read the letter but had not yet responded.
卡塔尔调解人周日（11月1日）连续第三天与伊朗官员会面，旨在促成华盛顿与德黑兰之间直接对话的恢复。
Qatari mediators also met Iranian officials for a third consecutive day on Sunday, November 1, in an effort to facilitate the resumption of direct talks between Washington and Tehran.
伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐表示，讨论仍在继续，但尚未达成最终协议。伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安一直与卡塔尔盟友保持密切联系。
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said discussions were continuing but had not produced a final agreement. Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian has been in constant touch with his Qatari allies.
他表示，正在考虑的一项提案可能允许霍尔木兹海峡在两天内重新开放，前提是华盛顿满足德黑兰的条件。
He indicated that a proposal under consideration could allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within two days if Washington met Tehran's conditions.
“我们在这方面正在不懈努力，并希望对方能展现出足够的理性，选择外交而非其他途径，”阿拉格齐说。
"We are making every effort in this regard and hope that the other side will demonstrate enough rationality to choose diplomacy over other paths," Araghchi said.
随着内塔尼亚胡推动采取新的军事行动，特朗普保持外交和军事两种选择，11月3日美国中期选举后的日子可能对冲突的未来至关重要。
With Netanyahu pushing for fresh military action and Trump keeping both diplomatic and military options open, the days following the November 3 US midterm elections could prove significant for the future of the conflict.