以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在大选中获胜，加上下周美国中期选举的结果，可能促使唐纳德·特朗普总统恢复此前暂停的对伊朗打击，分析人士表示。
Benjamin Netanyahu’s win in Israel’s election and next week’s US midterm results could prompt President Donald Trump to resume previously paused strikes against Iran, according to analysts.
以色列总理领导的阵营在120个席位的议会（克内塞特）中获得53席，其对手加迪·艾森科特领导的联盟获得48席，剩余19席由阿拉伯政党获得。
The Israeli prime minister’s bloc secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while his rival Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance took 48 and the remaining 19 went to the Arab parties.
周二投票后出现悬浮议会，导致组建下届联合政府的谈判错综复杂，使特朗普重启针对德黑兰的军事行动变得更加棘手。
The hung legislature after Tuesday’s polls led to complex negotiations to form the country’s next coalition government, complicating Trump’s renewed military campaign against Tehran.
这场持续九个月的战争及其引发的高油价，预计也将影响11月3日的选举，该选举将决定特朗普的共和党是保持还是失去对国会的控制权。
The nine-month war and the high fuel prices sparked by it are also expected to influence the November 3 election, which will decide whether Trump’s Republican Party retains or loses control of Congress.
纽约智库苏凡中心高级中东研究员肯尼斯·卡茨曼表示，如果共和党像内塔尼亚胡一样在下周表现更好，特朗普“会将其视为一种信号”，即两国公众都认为“他们现有的领导人在伊朗问题上走在正确的道路上，需要展示力量”。
If, like Netanyahu, the Republicans performed better next week, Trump “is going to take that as a signal” that the public in both countries believed that “their existing leaders are on the right track with Iran and need to show strength”, said Kenneth Katzman, a senior Middle East fellow at The Soufan Centre think tank in New York.
他说：“这将强化他的本能，即再次发动袭击，以迫使伊朗立场更加灵活。”
“It would reinforce his instinct, which is to attack again to induce more flexibility in the Iranian position,” he said.
莱斯大学贝克公共政策研究所中东研究员克里斯蒂安·科茨·乌尔里希森表示，即使共和党表现不佳，特朗普仍会命令美军猛击伊朗。
Even if the Republicans fared badly, Trump would still order the US military to pound Iran, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said.
他补充说，在由民主党控制的新国会于1月3日就职前，总统“还有两个月时间可以在没有重大政治制约的情况下行动”。
He added that the president has “two months left to act without significant political constraint” before a new Democrat-controlled Congress takes office on January 3.
然而，以色列裔美国地缘政治分析家沙伊尔·本-埃夫拉伊姆表示，这种情况也无法阻止特朗普，因为存在“太多亲战的民主党人”。
However, such a scenario would not stop Trump as there were “too many pro-war Democrats”, according to Israeli-American geopolitical analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim.
本-埃夫拉伊姆说，伊朗战争“是他脖子上的沉重包袱，更不用说对他的历史遗产了”，特朗普希望在推举他心仪的共和党继任者参加2028年总统大选之前，“摆脱”这场冲突。
Ben-Ephraim said the Iran war was “an albatross around his neck, not to mention for his legacy” and Trump wanted to “get rid” of the conflict before promoting his choice of Republican successor in the 2028 presidential race.
“归根结底，他需要通过某种体面的交易脱身，且该交易看起来对他有利，但他尚未达到这一步，”他说。但他表示，伊朗仍不愿同意特朗普能够“接受”的条件。
“Ultimately, he needs to get out of it with some kind of face-saving deal that looks favourable and he’s not there yet,” he said. But Iran was still unwilling to agree to conditions that Trump could “live with”, he said.
“特朗普觉得他现在唯一能做的就是很快升级事态。”乌尔里希森表示，特朗普曾支持内塔尼亚胡的竞选并为选举结果揽功，显然会希望以色列加入新一轮行动。
“Trump feels that the only thing he can do is escalate soon now.”Ulrichsen said Trump, who backed Netanyahu’s candidacy and took credit for the election outcome, would obviously want Israel to join the renewed campaign.
他说，该国也可能面临一段长期的政治僵局，这是白宫希望避免的局面。
The country is also likely to witness a period of protracted political stalemate, a situation the White House wanted to avoid, he said.
内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直试图将阿拉伯政党边缘化，而艾森科特及其反对派阵营中除一人外的所有合作伙伴都誓言组建一个纯粹的犹太复国主义政府——这种安排将同时排除阿拉伯政党和极端正统派犹太政党。
Netanyahu has long sought to marginalise the Arab parties, while Eisenkot and all but one of his opposition bloc partners have vowed to form an exclusively Zionist government – an arrangement that would exclude both Arab and ultraorthodox Jewish parties.
乌尔里希森表示，内塔尼亚胡阵营的表现可能会强化特朗普的“信念，即他（内塔尼亚胡）应继续担任以色列总理”。
The performance of Netanyahu’s bloc would probably reinforce Trump’s “conviction that he should remain in power” as Israeli prime minister, Ulrichsen said.
卡茨曼表示，特朗普对内塔尼亚胡的背书表明，美国“觉得在伊朗战争仍在进行之际，最好不要在以色列换马”。
Katzman said Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu suggested that the United States “feels it is better not to switch horses now in Israel” with the Iran war still going on.
他补充说，特朗普政府了解内塔尼亚胡的红线和目标，而如果是艾森科特等人，他们将不得不“重新发明轮子”。
He added that the Trump administration understood Netanyahu’s red lines and goals, whereas with Eisenkot and others, they would have to “reinvent the wheel”.
“他们只是对内塔尼亚胡留任感到更放心。”随着以色列权力分享谈判开始，分析人士称特朗普可能不会直接干预这一进程。
“They’re just more comfortable with Netanyahu being there.”As the power-sharing talks begin in Israel, analysts say Trump may not intervene directly in the process.
卡茨曼表示，特朗普不会“派任何人去以色列”与各政党开始谈判。相反，他将通过公开声明和社交媒体帖子来处理。
Katzman said Trump would not “send anybody to Israel” to start negotiating with the various political parties. Instead, he would handle it through public statements and social media posts.
本-埃夫拉伊姆表示，特朗普不太可能花费政治资本支持内塔尼亚胡，后者在未来几个月只能作为看守领导人，而该国将尝试组建新政府或举行另一次选举。
Ben-Ephraim said Trump was unlikely to spend political effort supporting Netanyahu, who will only serve as caretaker leader for the next few months while the country tries to form a new government or hold another election.
“如果他想以一种有意义的方式利用他对内塔尼亚胡的影响力，他将把它留着，用来试图控制伊朗境内的战争局势，”他说。
“If he wants to use his leverage over Netanyahu in a meaningful way, he’s going to save it for trying to keep the war in Iran under control,” he said.
他说，内塔尼亚胡推动在伊朗实现政权更迭，可能会在军事上升级，超出华盛顿希望的程度，而这位总理“将需要有人来管一管”。
He said Netanyahu, pushing for regime change in Iran, may escalate militarily beyond what Washington wants, and that the prime minister “is going to need some managing”.
他补充说：“这对特朗普来说，将比在以色列进行联盟建设重要得多。”
“That’s going to be a lot more important to Trump” than coalition-building in Israel, he added.