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尽管国家干预力度加大,中国股市投资者仍持观望态度Chinese stock investors stay on the sidelines even as state intervention gathers pace

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中国投资者本周对股票持观望态度,尽管北京推出一系列措施以提振对全球第二大股市的信心,官方支持措施正在逐步落地。

Chinese investors refrained from bets on stocks this week, even as state support unfolded after Beijing unveiled a litany of measures to shore up confidence in the world’s second-largest equity market.

据官方数据,杠杆交易者本周将持仓降至一年低点,10月新开股票账户数量下降超过30%。散户热情的退潮,与政府加大力度支撑股市形成对比,包括通过两种货币工具注入流动性,以及据报道暂停新股发行以抑制供应。

Leveraged traders trimmed their holdings to a one-year low this week, while new stock-account openings dropped by more than 30 per cent in October, according to official data. The retreat in retail enthusiasm contrasted with the government ramping up efforts to prop up stocks, including liquidity injections through two monetary tools and reported suspensions of new share sales to keep a lid on supply.

这种分歧说明,投资者对最新一轮政府干预能否推动股市持续上涨感到不安。股市正面临国内需求疲软以及美国AI股票暴跌带来的冲击。美国银行和麦格理等投资银行表示,官方干预可能稳定情绪,但不足以激发新一轮上涨。

The divergence illustrates investors’ unease over whether the latest bout of government interventions will drive sustained gains in stocks, which are grappling with weak domestic demand and the fallout of a rout in AI stocks in the US. Investment banks including Bank of America and Macquarie said that state intervention might stabilise sentiment, but would fall short of fuelling a fresh rally.

“止血与让患者完全康复之间是有区别的,”SPI资产管理公司合伙人斯蒂芬·因内斯表示。“官方支持的买盘可以稳定市场。更便捷的回购融资可以改善流动性。但如果企业盈利不改善,市场最终会回到同一个问题:政府退出后,谁来买?”经纪公司表示,如果北京继续对经济采取零星刺激措施,企业盈利将在第四季度或明年初继续对股票构成风险。中国招商证券数据显示,受基数走高和国内需求疲软影响,中国上市公司第三季度利润同比下降13%。

“There is a difference between stopping the bleeding and restoring the patient to full health,” said Stephen Innes, a managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “State-backed buying can steady the tape. Easier buy-back financing can improve liquidity. But if corporate earnings do not improve, the market eventually comes back to the same question. Who is buying once the government steps away?”Corporate earnings would continue to pose a risk to equities in the fourth quarter or early next year if Beijing maintained its piecemeal stimulus for the economy, according to brokerages. Third-quarter profits for Chinese listed companies fell 13 per cent from a year ago because of a higher base and sluggish domestic demand, according to China Merchants Securities.

沪深300指数本周几乎未变,此前中国人民银行通过第三轮互换便利操作,向资产管理、保险和证券公司提供了1000亿元(约合150亿美元)的流动性支持。央行周三还表示,在将再贷款计划利率下调25个基点后,收到了超过2000亿元额度的回购股票申请。

The benchmark CSI 300 Index barely budged this week after the People’s Bank of China offered 100 billion yuan (US$15 billion) of liquidity support to asset-management, insurance and securities firms via a third round of a swap facility operation. The central bank also said on Wednesday that it received applications for more than 200 billion yuan in quotas for a relending programme to buy back stocks after cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points.

2026年9月28日,上海外滩,人们站在一块显示最新股市和经济数据的屏幕前。图片:EPAPeople stand in front of a screen displaying the latest stock exchange and economic data on the Bund in Shanghai, September 28, 2026. Photo: EPA

一些风向标公司也在考虑回购。长鑫存储科技(CXMT)表示,其董事长提议将回购计划增至最高50亿元,以展示对其业务前景的信心。这家存储芯片制造商曾一度是中国市值最高的上市公司。

Some bellwether companies are also looking at buy-backs. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the memory chipmaker that at one point was the most valuable listed company in China, said its chairman proposed doubling a buy-back plan to as much as 5 billion yuan, a move to showcase confidence in its business prospects.

CXMT的估值为2.7万亿元,是中国大陆上市公司中市值第三高的公司,仅次于中国建设银行和中国工商银行。

CXMT is valued at 2.7 trillion yuan, the third-most valuable mainland-listed company after China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

目前,风险偏好依然低迷。中国10年期基准国债收益率周三突破1.6%,凸显投资者正寻求避险资产庇护。

So far, the risk appetite remains muted. The yield on China’s 10-year benchmark government bond breached 1.6 per cent on Wednesday, underscoring that investors were seeking refuge in safe assets.

更激进的措施可能即将出台。据媒体报道,中国证券监督管理委员会通过非正式窗口指导,要求投行暂停首次公开募股和大规模二级市场股票出售。

More drastic measures could be on the way. China’s securities regulator told investment banks to withhold initial public offerings and big secondary stock sales through informal window guidance, according to a media report.

中国干预股市之际,本月将在深圳举行亚太经合组织峰会,这是一场由中国国家主席习近平和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普出席的旗舰活动。中国金融监管机构有在重要政治事件(如年度立法会议)前干预股市以营造有利氛围的惯例。

China’s intervention in its stock market comes ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen this month, a marquee event featuring President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump. Chinese financial regulators have a practice of meddling in the stock market before key political events, such as the annual legislative conference, to create a favourable mood.

对于花旗银行而言,当前宏观政策的转变可能是决定明年股市表现的关键,北京由于出口强劲,不愿改变当前做法。

For Citigroup, a shift in the current macro policy may hold the key to stock performances next year, with Beijing reluctant to alter its current approach due to strong exports.

“最新公告应能奠定流动性底部。疲弱的宏观基本面可能会限制上涨空间,”花旗集团分析师于湘荣表示。“中国资产要实现持久重估,经济政策转向必不可少。”

“The latest announcements should cement the liquidity bottom. Weak macro fundamentals are likely to cap the upside,” said Citigroup analyst Yu Xiangrong. “An economic policy pivot is indispensable for a durable re-rating of China assets.”

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