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北京的最新措施能否阻止中国股市下滑?Can Beijing's latest measures stop China's stock market slide?

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一名投资者走过杭州一块显示股票信息的电子屏幕。路透社/《中国日报》An investor walks past an electronic screen showing stock information in Hangzhou. REUTERS/China Daily

新加坡:为帮助稳定该国挣扎的股市,中国当局本周推出新措施,以增加流动性、降低股票回购贷款利率,并放宽杠杆交易限制。

SINGAPORE: In a bid to help stabilise the country’s struggling stock market, Chinese authorities rolled out fresh measures this week to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading.

此举是在基准沪深300指数10月暴跌8.5%之后采取的,这是该指数自2016年初以来表现最差的月度表现。

It comes after the benchmark CSI300 Index plunged 8.5 per cent in October, its worst monthly performance since early 2016.

科技股的大幅下跌也加剧了投资者对世界第二大经济体的担忧,该经济体一直面临消费疲软和房地产部门长期债务危机的困扰。北京现在正在使金融机构和公司购买股票变得更容易、更便宜,以遏制市场下滑,分析人士告诉CNA。

Sharp falls in tech stocks have also added to investor jitters over the world’s second-largest economy, which has been grappling with sluggish consumption and a prolonged property sector debt crisis Beijing is now making it easier and cheaper for financial institutions and companies to buy shares in an effort to stem the market's slide, analysts told CNA.

但他们表示,最新的干预似乎更多是旨在防止进一步亏损,而不是引发持续反弹,并指出持续复苏需要更强劲的经济增长、改善的企业盈利以及投资者信心的回升。

But the latest intervention appears aimed more at preventing further losses than sparking a sustained rally, they said - noting that a lasting recovery would require stronger economic growth, improved corporate earnings and a revival in investor confidence.

那么,是什么促使北京采取行动,新措施将如何运作——它们能阻止抛售潮吗?中国推出了哪些措施?

So what has prompted Beijing to step in, how will the new measures work - and can they stop the sell-off? WHAT MEASURES HAS CHINA INTRODUCED?

这些措施旨在为股票购买提供更多资金,并鼓励公司回购自身股票。

The measures aimed at making more money available for stock purchases and encouraging companies to buy back their own shares.

首先,中国人民银行(PBOC)正在使主要金融机构更容易筹集资金投资股票。

First, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is making it easier for major financial institutions to raise funds to invest in stocks.

根据一种称为互换便利的机制,证券公司、基金管理公司和保险公司可以将其持有的资产(如政府债券和公司债券)与中央银行的更具流动性的资产进行交换。

Under a mechanism known as a swap facility, securities firms, fund managers and insurance companies can exchange assets they already hold, such as government and corporate bonds, for more liquid assets from the central bank.

然后,这些资产可用于获得购买股票的资金,而无需机构出售其现有投资。

These can then be used to obtain funding to buy stocks, without the institutions having to sell their existing investments.

中国人民银行表示,它将于周二(11月3日)进行新一轮互换操作,可能将超过1000亿元人民币(150亿美元)注入股市。

The PBOC said it would conduct a fresh round of swap operations on Tuesday (Nov 3) - potentially channelling more than 100 billion yuan (US$15 billion) into the stock market.

中国人民银行表示,31家证券和基金公司已申请超过1000亿元人民币的互换业务。

Thirty-one securities and fund companies have applied for swaps worth more than 100 billion yuan, the central bank said.

投资银行纳西斯(Natixis)高级经济学家吴伟(Gary Ng)表示,该设施将使大型金融机构更容易获得资金,鼓励他们投资股票。

Gary Ng, senior economist at investment banking firm Natixis, said the facility would make it easier for large financial institutions to access funding, encouraging them to invest in shares.

国泰君安证券驻香港分析师郝洲(Hao Zhou)告诉路透社,此次最新举措也释放出北京稳定股市、提振投资者信心的强烈信号。

The latest move also sends a strong signal of Beijing's determination to stabilise its stock market and shore up investor confidence, Hao Zhou, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Guotai Haitong Securities, told Reuters.

不过,他提醒称,全球市场波动和外部不确定性继续对投资者情绪造成沉重压力。北京还在降低上市公司回购自身股票的成本。

However, he cautioned that global market volatility and external uncertainties continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Beijing is also making it cheaper for listed companies to buy back their own shares.

中国人民银行已将股票回购增持专项再贷款的利率从1.25%下调至1%。该计划于2024年推出,也将成为永久性安排,而非临时措施。

The PBOC has cut the interest rate on a special lending facility for share buybacks and stake increases from 1.25 per cent to 1 per cent. The scheme, introduced in 2024, will also become a permanent arrangement rather than a temporary measure.

根据该计划,银行可以从中央银行获得更便宜的资金,并贷给上市公司用于回购其股票。

Under the programme, banks can obtain cheaper funding from the central bank and lend it to listed companies to repurchase their shares.

观察人士表示,此类回购可以通过减少市场上可供交易的股票数量来帮助支撑股价。

Such buybacks can help support share prices by reducing the number of shares available in the market, observers said.

但吴伟提醒称,回购并不能保证股价上涨。公司可能最终承担更多债务来为回购融资,即使其股价继续下跌。上海一条繁华的购物街。监管机构还在鼓励大型公司和投资基金购买更多股票。

But Ng cautioned that buybacks do not guarantee higher share prices. Companies could end up taking on more debt to finance the purchases, even as their stock prices continue to fall. A bustling shopping street in Shanghai. Regulators are also encouraging major companies and investment funds to buy more stocks.

路透社报道,中国证券监督管理委员会(CSRC)已敦促主要股票指数中的大型公司以及领先科技公司回购股份,以帮助稳定其市值。

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has urged major companies in key stock indices, as well as leading tech firms, to repurchase shares to help stabilise their market value, Reuters reported.

它还鼓励新设立的交易所交易基金(ETF)加快股票购买,同时敦促基金经理在市场下跌时进行投资。

It is also encouraging newly established exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to speed up stock purchases, while urging fund managers to invest during market downturns.

ETF是投资基金,通常跟踪一篮子股票,让投资者通过单一基金投资多家公司。

ETFs are investment funds that typically track a basket of stocks, allowing investors to invest in multiple companies through a single fund.

上海一条熙熙攘攘的购物街。(照片:路透社/中村豪)A bustling shopping street in Shanghai. (Photo: Reuters/Go Nakamura)

这些措施合在一起旨在增加股票需求,缓冲市场免受进一步大幅下跌的冲击。北京为何干预——措施会奏效吗?

Together, the measures are intended to increase demand for shares and cushion the market against further sharp declines. WHY IS BEIJING INTERVENING - AND WILL MEASURES WORK?

中国股票已承受数月压力,10月抛售加剧,科技及人工智能相关股票出现大幅下跌。但下跌并不仅限于科技股。

Chinese stocks have been under pressure for months, with the sell-off intensifying in October as tech and artificial intelligence-related shares suffered sharp declines. But the downturn goes beyond technology stocks.

Natixis的吴表示,更广泛的下跌反映了投资者情绪疲弱以及中国经济持续存在的问题。

Ng from Natixis said that the broader decline reflects weak investor sentiment and persistent problems in China’s economy.

国内消费疲软、房地产长期下行以及持续低通胀,严重拖累了企业盈利和投资者信心。

Sluggish domestic consumption, a prolonged property downturn and persistently low inflation have heavily weighed on corporate earnings and investor confidence.

吴表示,需求疲弱和低通胀将使企业更难提价和增加利润——尤其是在竞争激烈的情况下。

Weak demand and low inflation would make it harder for companies to raise prices and increase profits, Ng said - particularly when competition is intense.

分析人士警告投资风险,尤其是在科技和人工智能等波动较大的领域。

Analysts have warned about investing risks, particularly in volatile sectors such as tech and AI.

根据10月公布的官方数据,中国9月消费者通胀率仅为0.9%。

China's consumer inflation stood at just 0.9 per cent in September, according to official data released in October.

在企业盈利承压的情况下,投资者可能不太倾向于购买中国股票,尤其是在他们看到其他地方有更好回报机会时。北京最新的干预也反映出对金融稳定日益增长的担忧。

With corporate earnings under pressure, investors may be less inclined to buy Chinese shares, particularly when they see opportunities for better returns elsewhere. Beijing's latest intervention also reflects growing concerns about financial stability.

分析人士已就投资风险发出警告,尤其是科技和人工智能等波动较大的行业。(照片:CNA/蓝宇)Analysts have warned about investing risks, particularly in volatile sectors such as tech and AI. (Photo: CNA/Lan Yu)

吴指出,国有支持的基金已在10月举行的一次重要共产党会议期间介入支撑市场。

Ng noted that state-backed funds had already stepped in to support the market around a major Communist Party meeting held in October.

据彭博社10月16日报道,监管机构敦促国有支持的投资基金加快股票购买,而彭博智库估计,此类投资者在10月9日至10月20日期间通过交易所交易基金购买了约150亿美元的股票。

According to a Bloomberg report on Oct 16, regulators urged state-backed investment funds to accelerate stock purchases, while Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that such investors bought about US$15 billion worth of shares through exchange-traded funds between Oct 9 and Oct 20.

“一切都是为了稳定,”吴表示,并补充说,当局似乎担心,持续的市场下跌可能对金融体系构成更广泛的风险。

“It's all about stability,” said Ng, adding that authorities appeared concerned that a prolonged market slide could pose wider risks to the financial system.

最新措施可能有助于给股价筑底,但一些分析人士谨慎表示,这些措施可能不足以推动持久的复苏。

The latest measures could help put a floor under share prices, but some analysts cautioned that they may not be enough to drive a lasting recovery.

CNA记者探讨中国推动科技驱动的市场繁荣的大举行动,梳理自2024年初以来的关键进展,并审视为何这一次,这场反弹可能与众不同。

CNA Correspondent explores China’s big push for a tech-fuelled market boom, tracing key developments since early 2024 and examining why this time, the rally might be different.

金融服务公司优胜证券私人财富管理主管Kenneth Goh表示,北京的当务之急是防止市场进一步下跌,而非引发一场大幅反弹。

Kenneth Goh, director of private wealth management at financial services firm UOB Kay Hian, said Beijing’s immediate priority was to stop the market from falling further, rather than spark a major rally.

他说,这些措施旨在“更多地是稳定市场情绪”——通过让金融机构和公司更容易获得资金购买股票。

The measures are designed “more to steady market sentiment”, he said - by making it easier for financial institutions and companies to obtain funding to buy shares.

来自Natixis的吴补充说,将股票回购贷款设施设为永久性,也有助于让投资者更加放心。

Ng from Natixis added that making the share buyback lending facility permanent could also help reassure investors.

与可能到期的临时方案不同,永久性安排能让银行和公司更有把握地认为资金将持续可用,从而可能鼓励他们在更长的时间内规划股票购买。但资金更便宜、更容易获得,并不能保证投资者会购买更多股票。

Unlike a temporary scheme that may expire, a permanent arrangement gives banks and companies greater certainty that funding will remain available, potentially encouraging them to plan share purchases over a longer period. But cheaper and more readily available funding does not guarantee that investors will buy more stocks.

吴谨慎表示,金融机构和公司仍需权衡投资风险,尤其是在科技和人工智能等波动较大的领域。

Ng cautioned that financial institutions and companies would still need to weigh the risks of investing, particularly in volatile sectors such as technology and AI.

最终,虽然北京的措施可能有助于缓解进一步的损失,并在短期内恢复一些信心,但持久的复苏将取决于更强劲的经济增长和企业盈利的改善。足以阻止下跌吗?

Ultimately, while Beijing's measures may help cushion further losses and restore some confidence in the short term, a sustained recovery would depend on stronger economic growth and an improvement in corporate earnings. IS IT ENOUGH TO STOP THE SLIDE?

分析人士预计,这些措施将在短期内提供一些缓解,但也谨慎表示,除非中国更广泛的经济前景改善,否则反弹可能只是短暂的。

Analysts expect the measures to provide some relief in the short term - but cautioned that the rebound could be short-lived unless China’s broader economic outlook improves.

宣布支持措施后,中国股市周一反弹,显示北京的干预有助于稳定投资者情绪,这是早期迹象。

Chinese stocks rallied on Monday following the announcement of the support measures, offering an early sign that Beijing's intervention had helped steady investor sentiment.

据路透社报道,上证综合指数上涨1.1%,为自8月27日以来最大单日涨幅。深证成指上涨1.6%,香港基准恒生指数上涨0.4%。

The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.1 per cent, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Aug 27, according to Reuters. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.6 per cent, while Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 0.4 per cent.

南洋理工大学(NTU)经济学院副教授屈枫表示,这些措施“应该有助于稳定市场情绪,向市场传递政策制定者准备干预以防止股市进一步下跌的信号”。

Associate Professor Qu Feng from Nanyang Technological University's (NTU) economics division said that the measures “should help stabilise market sentiment by signalling that policymakers are prepared to intervene to prevent a further stock market decline”.

然而,他警告称,如果没有更强劲的经济增长、股市新增投资以及对潜在人工智能泡沫的担忧缓解,初期涨幅不太可能持续。

However, he warned that the initial gains were unlikely to last without stronger economic growth, fresh investment into the stock market and an easing of concerns over a potential AI bubble.

屈枫还指出,人工智能相关股票的高估值,不能仅仅通过向市场注入更多资金来解决。

Feng also pointed to the high valuations of AI-related stocks which cannot be addressed simply by pumping more money into the market.

他说,持续复苏“需要更强劲的企业盈利,以及对人工智能投资未来盈利能力有更清晰的认识”。

A sustained recovery “would require stronger corporate earnings and greater clarity about the future profitability of AI investments”, he said.

纳西斯银行的吴同样指出,中国持续低迷的通胀和疲软的企业利润增长是持续反弹的主要障碍。

Ng from Natixis similarly pointed to China's persistently low inflation and sluggish corporate profit growth as major obstacles to a lasting rebound.

大华银行凯希安的吴表示,持续复苏将取决于更强劲的国内需求和改善的企业盈利能力。

Goh at UOB Kay Hian said that a sustained recovery would depend on stronger domestic demand and improved corporate profitability.

吴表示,如果市场状况不改善,北京可能在今年年底前推出进一步支持措施。

If market conditions fail to improve, Beijing could introduce further support measures before the end of the year, Goh said.

这些措施可能包括进一步降低借贷成本、扩大流动性设施,或为机构投资者购买股票提供更多激励。

These could include additional cuts to borrowing costs, expanded liquidity facilities or more incentives for institutional investors to buy shares.

吴还提到,如果抛售持续,国家支持的基金可能通过交易所交易基金(ETF)进一步购买股票。评论:中国能靠内生增长吗?但中国过去试图支撑股市的尝试提供了一个警示故事。

Ng also raised the possibility of further stock purchases by state-backed funds through ETFs if the sell-off continues. Commentary: Can China grow from within? But China's previous attempts to shore up its stock market offer a cautionary tale.

路透社援引相关数据报道,北京在2024年10月和2025年1月推出了类似的流动性支持措施,央行通过此前的互换操作合计提供了1050亿元人民币。

Beijing introduced similar liquidity support measures in October 2024 and January 2025, with the central bank providing a combined 105 billion yuan through earlier swap operations, according to Reuters.

吴表示,此类干预过去曾帮助股价暂时稳定,但当基本经济状况未能改善时,其效果往往会消退。屈表示,最新措施更多是提供即时缓解,而非持久增长的基础。

Ng said such interventions had helped stabilise share prices temporarily in the past, but their effects often faded when underlying economic conditions failed to improve. Ultimately, the latest measures offer more immediate relief than a foundation for lasting growth, Qu said.

“它们支持更长期市场复苏的有效性,最终将取决于是否伴随经济基本面和投资者信心的改善,”他补充道。

“Their effectiveness in supporting a longer-term market recovery will ultimately depend on whether they are accompanied by improvements in economic fundamentals and investor confidence,” he added.

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