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长期低迷的民主党人欢庆中期选举大胜共和党Democrats, long in the dumps, revel in midterm rout over GOP

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周二晚间,众议院民主党人在华盛顿欢庆中期选举的大胜,沉浸在选民对执政共和党人的强力否决之中,并誓言最快于明年初掌权后便升级与特朗普总统的对抗。他们聚集在海军船坞区一家时尚的万豪旗下 AC 酒店,众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(民主党-纽约州)等民主党领袖将选举结果描绘为对特朗普动荡回归白宫的否定。

Jubilant House Democrats celebrated their midterm rout on Tuesday night in Washington, reveling in the voters' resounding rejection of the reigning Republicans and vowing to escalate their battles with President Trump just as soon as they take power in the earliest days of next year. Gathered at the AC Hotel, a trendy Marriott property in the trendy Navy Yard section of Washington, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and other Democratic leaders portrayed the outcome as a repudiation of Trump’s turbulent return to office.

他们以一种过去两年在少数党荒野中游荡、鲜有实权时所未见的狂喜迎接结果。“今天,伟大的美国复兴开始了,”杰弗里斯对欢呼的人群说道。“这是一场变革选举,我们作为众议院民主党人明白,我们必须兑现剧烈的变革。”

And they greeted the results with a level of exuberance that's been dormant over the past two years as they’ve roamed without much power in the minority wilderness. “Today begins the great American comeback,” Jeffries told the cheering crowd. "This is a change election, and we understand as House Democrats that we need to deliver dramatic change.”

民主党人的观选派对距离国会大厦仅几个街区,起初比以往几个周期的派对更为低调。全天候,民主党操盘手们在电话旁奋战,最后冲刺推动战场州选民走向投票站。直到晚上 8 点过后,几十名年轻助理才将注意力转向播放开票结果的新闻网络。酒吧虽已开放,却几乎无人饮酒。随着结果开始陆续传出,显示势头明显向民主党倾斜,气氛随之改变。

The Democrats’ watch party, just a few blocks from the U.S. Capitol, was more subdued than those of cycle’s past — at least initially. Throughout the day, Democratic operatives worked the phones in a final push to nudge battleground voters to the polls. Only after 8 p.m. did a few dozen young staffers turn their attention to the news networks broadcasting the returns. The bar was open, but almost no one was drinking. That changed as the results began to trickle in, showing the momentum clearly shifting in the Democrats’ favor.

现任议员在佛罗里达和俄亥俄守住了因重新划分选区而本应失守的席位;挑战者在肯塔基和北卡罗来纳翻转了特朗普曾以两位数优势拿下的共和党席位。在 AC 酒店内,民主党人焦灼的期盼在得知躁动不安的选民有望让他们在下届国会掌控两院后,变成了公开的狂欢。美酒开始畅饮。随后,CNN 于晚上 9 点 30 分左右从现场直播,全场彻底沸腾。

Incumbents clung to seats in Florida and Ohio that were redistricted to knock them off. Challengers flipped GOP seats in Kentucky and North Carolina that Trump had carried by double digits. And inside the AC Hotel, the Democrats’ anxious hopes shifted to open revelry on the news that restive voters were on track to put them in control of both chambers in the next Congress. The wine began to flow freely. Then, shortly after 9:30 p.m., CNN broadcast live from the event, and the room exploded.

紧随其后,晚上10点05分,CNN宣布民主党夺取了众议院控制权。口号立刻响起:“杰弗里斯!杰弗里斯!杰弗里斯!”民主党的胜利并不意外。在周二之前,民调、评论员和选举预测者都预测,民主党不仅会获胜,而且会大获全胜。杰弗里斯和其他党领袖也公开表示,众议院是他们可以轻松拿下的。不过,民调、评论员和选举预测者也曾出错,过去十年里,民主党也曾不止一次因低估特朗普支持者、高估自身而自食其果。

That was followed, at 10:05 p.m., by CNN’s announcement that Democrats had seized House control. The chants began immediately: “Jeffries! Jeffries! Jeffries!”The Democrats’ victory was not a surprise. Heading into Tuesday, polls, pundits and election handicappers predicted that Democrats would not only win, but win big. And Jeffries and other party leaders were publicly bullish that the House was theirs to lose. Still, polls, pundits and election handicappers have been wrong before, and Democrats have burned themselves more than once over the last decade by undercounting Trump’s supporters and overestimating their own.

这些令人失望的表现一直萦绕在民主党心头,今年许多人在周二前都谨慎行事,小心不要许下过多承诺或视胜利为理所当然。在纽约投票后,参议院少数党领袖查尔斯·舒默(民主党-纽约州)概括了他党派的情绪:“我们乐观得令人作呕,”他说。周二晚间的狂喜气氛标志着该党的戏剧性转变,该党在特朗普第二任期的上半年几乎没有什么可庆祝的,当时占多数的共和党推动了众多立法优先事项——最引人注目的是去年的大规模减税、医疗补助削减和移民执法资金方案——而特朗普几乎不受由共和党主导的国会制约。

Those disappointing showings have been at the front of Democrats’ minds this year, and many of them have been treading cautiously into Tuesday, careful not to overpromise or take anything for granted. After voting in New York, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) summed up the sentiments of his party: “We are nauseously optimistic," he said. The exuberant mood late Tuesday marked a dramatic shift for a party that’s had little to celebrate through the first half of Trump’s second term, when the majority Republicans powered through a host of their legislative priorities — most notably, last year’s massive package of tax cuts, Medicaid cuts and immigration enforcement funding — and Trump has operated virtually unchecked by the GOP-led Congress.

然而,周二许多政策似乎对共和党适得其反。伊朗战争分裂了特朗普的MAGA联盟。他的驱逐潮抹去了他在2024年与西班牙裔选民取得的进展。他削减基于种族的投票保护的努力可能激发了关键选区黑人选民的热情。他的关税疏远了传统的自由市场保守派。他任期内消费者成本的上升,激怒了许多过去支持他的工人阶级民粹主义者,包括被特朗普的贸易战和柴油燃料成本飙升重创的农民。

Many of those policies, however, appeared to backfire on the GOP on Tuesday. The Iran War has splintered Trump’s MAGA coalition. His deportation surge has eliminated the gains he’d made with Hispanic voters in 2024. His efforts to scale back race-based voting protections might have animated Black voters in key districts. His tariffs have alienated traditional free-market conservatives. And the increase in consumer costs during his term has angered many working-class populists who supported him in the past, including farmers who’ve been clobbered by Trump’s trade wars and the spike in diesel fuel costs.

特朗普在白宫观看开票结果,他亲自挑选的一些共和党候选人落选,尤其是参议院候选人。白宫将责任归咎于这些候选人竞选活动平淡无奇。这场中期选举浪潮标志着杰弗里斯取得重大胜利,四年前他晋升为民主党最高领导层职位,但本轮选举周期中,他遭到自由派批评,认为他在反制特朗普方面做得太少。他还面临巨大压力,因为他的前任是众议员南希·佩洛西(民主党-加利福尼亚州),这位自由派偶像和美国历史上首位女性议长长期执掌众议院。

Trump, who was watching the returns from the White House, had hand-picked some of the GOP candidates who lost, particularly those in the Senate. The White House blamed the candidates for running lackluster campaigns. The midterm wave marked a major victory for Jeffries, who rose to the top Democratic leadership spot four years ago but has come under fire this cycle from liberals who think he’s done too little to push back against Trump. He’s also had big shoes to fill, following the long reign of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a liberal icon and the first female Speaker in U.S. history.

但杰弗里斯在整个周期中保持纪律,使其多元化的党团基本团结一致,反对特朗普的政策议程,同时努力确保竞选焦点始终集中在“负担得起”这一议题上——这是一个普遍关注的话题,似乎帮助了全选票层面的民主党候选人。民主党的胜利使他有望成为美国历史上首位黑人议长,相关投票将于1月3日举行。在这个角色上,杰弗里斯将面临管理意识形态多元党团的自身挑战。

But Jeffries was disciplined throughout the cycle, keeping his diverse caucus largely united in opposition to Trump’s policy agenda, while fighting to ensure the focus of the campaign remained centered around the issue of affordability — a topic of universal interest that seemed to help Democrats up and down the ballot. The Democrats’ victory puts him in line to become the first Black Speaker in U.S. history, a vote that will take place on Jan. 3. In that role, Jeffries will face his own challenges managing an ideologically diverse caucus.

然而,周二的选举结果将给他提供一个舒适的缓冲空间,削弱民主社会主义者和其他可能联合起来以要求其优先事项的小派系议员的筹码。

Tuesday’s results, however, will give him a comfortable cushion with which to operate, eroding the leverage of the democratic socialists and other small blocs of lawmakers who might band together with designs to demand their priorities.

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