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民主党有望取得比预期更大的众议院多数优势Democrats poised to claim a House majority bigger than they’d hoped

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乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

众议院民主党领袖正准备欢迎来自全国各地的温和派成员,并拥有足以轻松掌控、并能约束躁动不安的进步派翼的多数席位。

House Democratic leaders are preparing to welcome moderate members from across the country and a majority big enough to manage comfortably and contain a restive progressive wing.

多年来,强硬派共和党人利用微弱的众议院多数优势最大化杠杆作用,折磨议长凯文·麦卡锡和迈克·约翰逊。如今,民主党有望获得足够大的席位增幅,使自身免受党团内部难以驾驭的派系——尤其是左翼派系——的冲击。

After years of seeing hardline Republicans torment Speakers Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson by maximizing their leverage in a slim House majority, Democrats are poised to make large enough gains to insulate themselves against unruly blocs in their caucus — particularly on the left.

可能还要过几天才能知晓多数席位的完整规模。但民主党正向更红的领地推进;在一个令共和党震惊的事态发展中,截至周二深夜,共和党众议院竞选委员会主席、众议员理查德·哈德森在其深红的北卡罗来纳州选区落后,有败选之虞。

It might still be days until the full size of the majority is known. But Democrats are pushing into redder territory; in a shocking development for the GOP, its House campaigns chief, Rep. Richard Hudson, was on track to lose his deep-red North Carolina seat as of late Tuesday night.

在得克萨斯州,应唐纳德·特朗普总统要求由共和党重新划分选区以使其更有利于本党的几个众议院席位中,民主党截至周二深夜均处于领先。在佛罗里达州共和党重划的所有四个席位中,民主党也均领先。

Democrats were leading late Tuesday in several of the Texas seats that House Republicans redrew at President Donald Trump’s behest to be more favorable to their party. They were ahead, too, in all four of the Florida seats that Republicans redrew.

在俄亥俄州,共和党试图通过重划选区挤走民主党籍资深议员马西·卡普图,但这位老将在其选区中领先;其他共和党议员,如俄亥俄州众议员马克斯·米勒,在早期计票中落后。

And in Ohio, where Republicans attempted to draw out Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the veteran lawmaker was leading her race; other Republicans, like Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, were trailing in early returns.

数月来,民主党一直担心即将到来的进步派左翼可能在党团内部选举和全院议长投票中反对少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯的议长竞选,但更大的众议院多数优势提供的缓冲几乎可以使左翼的叛乱在两种投票中均失去意义。

Democrats have dealt with jitters for months now that an incoming progressive left could vote against Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ speakership bid, but the cushion provided by a larger House majority could all but moot a rebellion from the left both in an internal caucus election and the full speaker vote.

周二晚,在华盛顿特区杰弗里斯的观选派对上气氛欢腾,每当电视网宣布民主党翻红一个选区,现场便爆发欢呼,众议院控制权出人意料地早早被宣布归属民主党。杰弗里斯和民主党领袖亲自关注捍卫重划后的选区,并在更红的选区招募候选人参选。

The mood was jubilant at Jeffries’ watch party in Washington, DC, on Tuesday night, with cheers for every flipped race as TV networks called the House for Democrats surprisingly early in the night. Jeffries and Democratic leaders had taken a personal interest in defending redistricted territory and in recruiting candidates to run in redder seats.

“今天是美国伟大复兴的开始。无论在北方、南方、东方、西方,还是中西部,从海岸到海岸,人民已经发声,明确表示他们受够了极端主义,受够了腐败,”杰弗里斯在周二晚间说。

“Today begins the great American Comeback. In the North, in the South, in the East, in the West, in the Midwest, from sea to shining sea, people have spoken and made clear they’ve had enough of the extremism, enough of the corruption,” Jeffries said Tuesday night.

“他们想要一个能够为美国人民带来成果的国会,而这正是众议院民主党人在一月上任后将要做到的。” 中间派民主党人已经在大肆宣扬他们在重新夺回众议院多数席位中的作用。

“They want a Congress that’s going to deliver for the American people, and that is exactly what House Democrats will do as soon as we get into office in January.”Centrist Democrats are already trumpeting their role in recapturing the House majority.

“我感觉非常好。新民主党人正在展示如何领导,”新民主党联盟主席、伊利诺伊州民主党众议员布拉德·施奈德说。本轮选举中,民主党全国委员会(DCCC)的“红转蓝”候选人大多数得到中间派阵营的支持,该阵营也为其候选人投入了大量资源。

“I am feeling really good. New Dems are showing how to lead,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Ill., who chairs the New Democrat Coalition. The majority of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” candidates this cycle were backed by the centrist bloc, which put substantial resources behind its candidates, too.

民主党领袖仍面临如何管理众议院议事日程以及如何对抗特朗普的巨大疑问。他们已经提出以逆转对医疗补助的削减和恢复失效的医疗税收抵免为核心的早期议程,但可能会受到进步左翼的压力,要求提出更具雄心的计划。

Democratic leaders still face huge questions about how they’ll run the House floor and counter Trump. They’ve talked up an early agenda centered around reversing cuts to Medicaid and restoring lapsed healthcare tax credits, but could face pressure from the progressive left to put up a more ambitious plan.

争夺影响力的竞争已经开始。就在周二晚上之前,来自不同意识形态的民主党人就已经抢先声明自己在帮助翻转众议院以及对民主党多数可能实现的愿景中的角色。

The jockeying for influence is already beginning. Leading up to Tuesday evening, Democrats from across the ideological spectrum were preemptively laying claim to their roles in helping flip the House and their visions for what a Democratic majority might be capable of doing.

进步派如德克萨斯州民主党众议员格雷格·卡萨尔表示,他们希望对立法进行投票,让参议院敢于使用阻挠议事或让特朗普敢于否决。“这是一个实现重大变革的授权。不能自满,”他在声明中说。

Progressives like Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, said they wanted to vote on legislation that they would dare the Senate to filibuster or Trump to veto. “This is a mandate to deliver big change. No complacency,” he said in a statement.

但由于本轮选举中红色地区的增多,众议院多数席位可能被更红的地区所填补,民主党将面临对进步政策如全民医保的激烈内部阻力。除了一些得到进步党团支持的候选人外,大多数来自紫色选区的候选人都回避了此类雄心勃勃的提案。

But with the House majority likely padded by redder territory this cycle, Democrats will face fierce internal resistance to progressive policy ideas like Medicare for All. Most candidates from purple districts, with the exception of some backed by the Progressive Caucus, have shied away from such ambitious proposals.

弗雷德·韦尔曼是那些在密苏里州红色选区意外获胜的候选人之一,他在接受《Semafor》采访时表示,“我想推动全民医保体系,但眼下我们必须止血。”他打趣道:“很多人曾怀疑我们,我现在只能说‘我早就说过,你们该听我的’。”

Fred Wellman, one of those candidates who took operatives off-guard by triumphing in a red district in Missouri, told Semafor he wanted “to work towards a Medicare for All system, but right now we need to stop the bleeding.”“A lot of people were doubting us, and all I have to say at this point is ‘I told you so, you should’ve listened,’” he quipped.

尽管本轮选举中各个单独竞选充满戏剧性,但全国范围内的共和党人仍无法摆脱整体环境的影响。随着柴油和汽油价格在选举日仍在飙升,特朗普的支持率下滑,选民已准备好惩罚共和党。

For all of the drama over individual races this cycle, Republicans across the country couldn’t outrun the overall environment. With diesel and gas prices still spiking through Election Day, and Trump’s approval rating sagging, voters were ready to punish Republicans.

民主党有望赢得远超他们在周二之前公开预测的10席优势的多数席位。

Democrats are on track for a majority far bigger than the 10-seat margin they’d publicly predicted heading into Tuesday.

接下来就是艰难的阶段。过去几年里,党内大多数人为了重新夺回众议院而搁置了意识形态分歧,但民主党领袖将在2028年总统大选的背景下,面临关于立法议程的艰难抉择。

Now comes the hard part. Most in the party put aside their ideological differences over the last few years in pursuit of recapturing the House, but Democratic leaders are going to face tough decisions about their legislative agenda, all set against the backdrop of the 2028 presidential election.

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