Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) will oust moderate GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) in a major pickup for Democrats, Decision Desk HQ projects.

Fitzpatrick has defied political gravity time and time again since he was first elected a decade ago, routinely outperforming the top of his party's ticket and managing to win reelection even as the district votes for Democrats in other races. He's done that in part through his reputation for bipartisanship, often being rated as one of Congress's most bipartisan members. During this session of Congress, Fitzpatrick voted against the final version of President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, citing concerns with cuts to Medicaid, and backed multiple war powers votes to restrict the president's authority in the Iran war.

But Democrats were hopeful that this year could be different given the favorable national environment, President Trump's deep unpopularity and an expected sweeping reelection victory by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). Democrats spent millions seeking to unseat Fitzpatrick. Harvie presented Fitzpatrick's greatest challenge yet, tying him to the unpopular president. Harvie noted on the campaign trail that Fitzpatrick voted for the original version of Trump's tax cut and spending legislation, allowing it to advance to the Senate.

And while the congressman voted to overturn the president's wide-ranging tariffs on Canada, Harvie has slammed him for prior votes to prevent votes on reining in Trump's tariff authority. Still, Fitzpatrick was favored to hang on. The election forecaster Cook Political Report rated the race as "lean Republican." Fitzpatrick's loss is a major sign of a very good night for Democrats nationally.