今年11月，在摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州，共和党现任议员们在强劲的政治逆风中挣扎，被迫做出抉择——是紧紧追随总统唐纳德·特朗普，还是走自己的路。
As Republican incumbents in purple Pennsylvania battled strong political headwinds this November, they were forced to choose a tack –– hew closely to President Donald Trump or go their own way.
随着总统在该州的支持率持续下滑，这个问题显得尤为突出——10月底的一项民调显示，70%的宾夕法尼亚州选民不认可特朗普的执政表现。
The question loomed large as the president’s approval rating continued to sink in the state –– one late-October poll showed 70% of Pennsylvania voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance.
这个战场州两位任职时间最长的共和党现任议员——众议员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克和斯科特·佩里——在今秋的竞选活动中选择了截然相反的路线。但这并没有带来任何差别，民主党人在全国各地的深红选区大获全胜，包括特朗普在2024年以两位数优势获胜的地区。
Two of the battleground state’s longest-serving Republican incumbents –– Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Scott Perry –– chose opposite courses on the campaign trail this fall. It didn’t make a difference as Democrats swept in deep red districts across the country, including in areas that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
菲茨帕特里克与日益不受欢迎的总统及其对伊朗的战争保持距离，预计将在第一国会选区输给巴克斯县专员鲍勃·哈维，失去席位。
Fitzpatrick, who distanced himself from the increasingly unpopular president and his war in Iran, was projected to lose his seat in the 1st Congressional District to Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie.
佩里则坚定支持特朗普，并在国会第七个任期内为政府一些最具争议的举措辩护，但预计也将在其哈里斯堡地区选区输给民主党候选人、前地方新闻主播贾内尔·斯特尔森。
Perry, who stuck by Trump and defended some of the administration’s most controversial moves while serving his seventh term in Congress, was also projected to lose to the Democratic nominee, former local news anchor Janelle Stelson, in his Harrisburg-area district.
在宾夕法尼亚州，共和党人输掉了全部四个竞争最激烈的选区——在宾夕法尼亚州第八选区，众议员罗布·布雷斯纳汉因在选民对腐败问题愤怒的一年里进行股票交易而受到批评，预计将输给斯克兰顿市长佩奇·科涅蒂，失去席位。在利哈伊谷的第七国会选区，众议员瑞安·麦肯齐预计也将输给民主党候选人、消防员鲍勃·布鲁克斯。
In Pennsylvania, Republicans lost all four of their most contested districts — in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, Rep. Rob Bresnahan was projected to lose his seat to Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti after drawing criticism for his stock trading in a year when voters were angry about corruption. Over in the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, Rep. Ryan Mackenzie was also projected to lose against the Democrat nominee, firefighter Bob Brooks.
宾夕法尼亚州四个竞争性选区的失守，加上民主党州长乔什·夏皮罗以超过20个百分点的优势获胜，可能为该州确立新的方向——这些选区历来在两大政党之间来回摇摆。
The loss of Pennsylvania’s four competitive districts alongside an over 20-point win for Democratic Gov.Josh Shapiro could cement a new direction for the state, where those districts have historically swung back and forth between the two political parties.
温和派人士菲茨帕特里克曾代表共和党在这个对民主党而言的选举浪潮之年为该州带来的最大希望。他接替已故兄长迈克·菲茨帕特里克赢得席位后，代表其郊区社区长达10年，并批评总统的关税政策、总统关于俄罗斯在乌克兰战争的言论，以及政府拟设立的“反武器化”基金。在选举日前的多次投票中，他都投票支持结束在伊朗的敌对行动。“我对特朗普不满意，”菲茨帕特里克10月对CNBC表示。
The moderate Fitzpatrick had represented Republicans’ best hope in the state in a wave election year for Democrats. He represented his suburban community for 10 years, after winning the seat of his late brother, Mike Fitzpatrick, and criticized the president’s tariff policies, his comments on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the administration’s proposed “anti-weaponization” fund. He voted to end hostilities in Iran repeatedly in the lead-up to Election Day.
“我把他排除在考虑之外，”他对《华盛顿太阳报》的保罗·凯恩说。
“I’m not happy with Trump,” Fitzpatrick told CNBC in October.
菲茨帕特里克在2025年对共和党大规模减税法案的最终版本投了反对票，并在整个竞选期间告诉记者，如果不是宾夕法尼亚州的封闭式党派投票制度，他会重新登记为独立人士。
“I take him out of the equation,” he told The Washington Sun’s Paul Kane.
宾夕法尼亚州共和党政治顾问克里斯托弗·尼古拉斯对《太阳报》表示，菲茨帕特里克一向打破传统党派惯例，而正是这种惯例在历史上曾推动菲茨帕特里克在雄鹿县获胜。
Fitzpatrick voted against the final version of the Republican’s sweeping tax-cut bill in 2025 and told reporters throughout the campaign that if not for Pennsylvania’s closed-party voting system, he would have re-registered as an independent.
“他是一个有着特殊背景、做着特殊事情的特别人物，”尼古拉斯说。“我认为他的温和立场并非临阵倒戈。这是他多年来一贯的事实。在以往的选举周期中，他都曾在初选中被更保守的共和党人挑战。”但尼古拉斯指出，该地区比该州其他摇摆选区更偏蓝，并在2024年大选中以微弱优势倒向卡玛拉·哈里斯。
Christopher Nicholas, a Republican political consultant in Pennsylvania, told The Sun that Fitzpatrick has always bucked traditional party conventions, which had historically propelled Fitzpatrick to victory in Bucks County.
“这一直是菲茨帕特里克家族过去惯用的手法之一。他们能够吸引雄鹿县下层的蓝领民众，因为他们来自那里，同时还能让该县的共和党人一起支持他们，”尼古拉斯说，并补充说如今的政治气候使同时吸引双方变得更加困难。
“He is a special guy with a special background doing a special thing,” Nicholas said. “I think him being a moderate is not a foxhole conversion. It’s something that has been true for years. In previous cycles, he’s been primaried by more conservative Republicans.”But Nicholas noted that the area is bluer than other battleground districts around the state and swung narrowly for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
不过，考虑到其选区的特点，弗吉尼亚大学政治中心编辑J·迈尔斯·科尔曼表示，反对特朗普是菲茨帕特里克获胜的唯一现实途径。
“That was always one of the things that the Fitzpatricks used to do. They could appeal to the lower Bucks blue-collar folks because they were from there, while still getting the Republicans in the county to come along with them as well,” Nicholas said, adding that today’s political climate makes attracting both sides more difficult.
“仁慈地说，特朗普的全国支持率是40%，”科尔曼说。“这是全国仅有的三个国会选区之一，该选区在2024年投票支持卡玛拉·哈里斯，却选出了一名共和党国会议员。”
Still, bucking Trump would have been Fitzpatrick’s only realistic path to victory, given the profile of his district, said J. Miles Coleman, an editor at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
向西开车约一小时，第10选区从哈里斯堡向外延伸，斯科特·佩里拥抱了他的政党，并在选举周期的最后几天与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊一起竞选，后者是总统的坚定盟友。
“Charitably, Trump’s approval rating is 40% nationwide,” Coleman said. “That’s one of only three congressional districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 but sent a Republican in Congress.”A bit more than an hour’s drive to the west, where the 10th District sprawls out from Harrisburg, Scott Perry embraced his party and campaigned alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson, a staunch ally of the president’s, in the closing days of the election cycle.
这位连任13年的现任议员与总统关系密切，将特朗普的低民调支持率归咎于媒体报道，并为政府在伊朗的战争辩护。
The 13-year incumbent closely aligned himself with the president, blaming media coverage for Trump’s low poll numbers and defending the administration’s war in Iran.
“他们听到的全是坏消息，来自那些拥有最大喇叭的人，他们每天24小时、一年365天都在尖叫说他们讨厌唐纳德·特朗普，”佩里去年10月对新闻最大电视台说。“世界上有很多好事正在发生。”佩里与总统的结盟并非其长期政治形象的背离。作为保守派自由党团的前任主席，佩里长期以来一直主张降税和反对联邦越权。
“All they get is bad news from the people that have the biggest megaphone that are screaming that they hate Donald Trump 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,” Perry told Newsmax in October. “A lot of great things are happening in the world.”Perry’s alignment with the president was not a departure from his longtime political persona. A former chair of the conservative Freedom Caucus, Perry had long campaigned on lower taxes and opposition to federal overreach.
但自2018年宾夕法尼亚州重新划定国会选区地图以来，佩里不得不在一个竞争更激烈的选区参选。这使得这位现任议员的选举成功更加困难，他在2024年以仅1个百分点的优势击败了珍妮尔·斯蒂尔森。
But Perry has had to run in a more competitive district since Pennsylvania redrew its congressional maps in 2018. That’s made electoral success harder for the incumbent, who beat Janelle Stelson by just 1 point in 2024.
“尽管特朗普在该选区以4或5个百分点的优势获胜，但该选区每个选举周期都在向民主党转变，”科尔曼说。
“Even though Trump carried the district by 4 or 5 points, that district has been moving Democratic every cycle,” Coleman said.
尼古拉斯表示，考虑到这些情况，佩里遇到困难并不奇怪。他在摇摆选区与特朗普的密切关联并没有帮助。
Nicholas said it wasn’t surprising to see Perry struggle, given the circumstances. His close association with Trump didn’t help in a battleground district.
“斯科特·佩里的选区变了，”尼古拉斯在选举日前表示。“他的选区共和党色彩减弱了。所以把这个和这是中期选举结合起来，投票率矩阵就不同了，现在不受欢迎的总统是共和党人，而不是两年前的民主党人。”不过，科尔曼补充说，佩里可能计算过，拥抱特朗普对于激发共和党基本盘的投票率很重要。
“Scott [Perry]’s district changed,” Nicholas said ahead of Election Day. “His district got less Republican. So you combine that with this being the midterm election, the turnout matrix is different, the unpopular president now is a Republican, not a Democrat, like it was two years ago.”Still, Coleman added, Perry may have calculated that hugging Trump was important to juice up turnout among the Republican base.
尼古拉斯说，与不受欢迎的特朗普保持一致，意味着佩里最可能的获胜之路是攻击斯蒂尔森的“失误和过失”。“他们都在2024年赢得了胜利，那时不受欢迎的总统是民主党人乔·拜登。现在不受欢迎的现任总统是共和党人。所以这改变了你所处的政治文化和环境的很多方面，”尼古拉斯说。
Staying in lockstep with an unpopular Trump, Nicholas said, meant that Perry’s most likely path to victory was attacking Stelson for “her foibles and missteps.”“They both won victories in 2024, back when the unpopular president was the Democrat Joe Biden. Now the unpopular incumbent president is a Republican. So that changes a lot of the kind of political culture and environment that you’re in,” Nicholas said.