
选民周二在投票中可能已拒绝共和党议程,让民主党掌控了众议院和参议院,但共和党高层领导人尚未准备好放弃他们的立法野心。
Voters may have rejected the Republican agenda at the polls on Tuesday, handing Democrats control of the House and Senate, but top GOP leaders are not ready to give up on their legislative ambitions just yet.
在民主党正式掌控国会之前还剩两个月,关键的共和党议员正盯着在“跛脚鸭”会期推出的一揽子立法方案,该方案可能让他们在不征求民主党意见的情况下,尽可能多地实施其剩余议程。
With two months left before Democrats formally take control of Congress, key Republican lawmakers are eying a catch-all legislative package in the lame-duck session that could allow them to enact as much of their remaining agenda as possible without input from Democrats.
数十亿美元的伊朗战争资金、债务上限提高、投票限制、加密货币措施和大麻政策,均在共和党议员为最后一刻的党派调和法案提出的措施之列。尽管民主党可能希望给该方案制造障碍,但阻碍其通过的唯一障碍将是共和党人。
Billions in funding for the Iran war, a debt limit increase, voting restrictions, crypto measures and hemp policy are among the measures floated by GOP lawmakers for a last-minute partisan reconciliation bill. As much as Democrats may be hoping to throw a wrench into the package, the only thing standing in the way of its passage will be Republicans.

共和党人还面临一系列需要民主党合作的年底截止日期。政府资金将于12月11日耗尽,国会仍需通过年度国防政策法案。
Republicans also face a series of year-end deadlines on which they will need Democratic cooperation. Government funding runs out on Dec. 11, and Congress still has to pass its annual Pentagon policy bill.
但这些谈判可能比以往任何时候都更加困难。首先,议员们面临重大的后勤障碍。时间紧迫——从现在到年底,议员们只安排开会几周——而且可能出现出勤问题,因为明年不再连任的议员有时很难留在华盛顿。
But those negotiations may be more difficult than ever. For starters, lawmakers face significant logistical hurdles. There is a time crunch — lawmakers are only scheduled to be in session for a few weeks between now and the end of the year — and there could be attendance issues, as lawmakers who are not returning next year can sometimes be difficult to keep in Washington.
与此同时,民主党可能会看到利用这些必须通过的法案作为筹码的机会,特别是如果共和党人同时试图在失去对华盛顿的统一控制之前,强行通过另一项调和法案。
Democrats, meanwhile, may see an opportunity to use those must-pass measures as leverage, particularly if Republicans are simultaneously trying to ram through another reconciliation bill before losing unified control of Washington.
民主党可能会坚持更多结束伊朗战争的投票,众议院还将不得不在第119届国会最后几天处理一项弹劾国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的投票。
Democrats are likely to insist on more votes to end the Iran war, and the House will have to deal with a vote to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the final days of the 119th Congress.
当然,这一切都没有阻止共和党人考虑进行一次雄心勃勃的最后冲刺。
Of course, none of that is deterring Republicans from entertaining an ambitious final push.
“如果我们失去对国会的控制,那将是‘最后的晚餐’,”俄亥俄州共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺去年10月对记者说。“所以,你知道,将是一项巨大的预算调节法案,我们将把能完成的所有共和党优先事项都放进去。”
“If we lose control of Congress, it’ll be the Last Supper,” Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, told reporters in October. “So it’ll be, you know, a giant reconciliation bill where we take all the Republican priorities that we can get done.”
莫雷诺表示,如果共和党失去众议院和参议院——而这在周二已经发生——“我们应该从11月9日一直待到12月31日,中间毫无休息。”威斯康星州共和党参议员罗恩·约翰逊于7月成为参议院预算委员会主席,他在夏天推动了一项共和党预算调节法案,该法案原本将提供高达1500亿美元的支出。该大纲主要聚焦于军事、边境和移民支出,但立法者离开华盛顿去竞选之前,它从未形成完整的法案。但约翰逊并未放弃。
Moreno said that if Republicans lost the House and Senate — which happened Tuesday — “we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all.”Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who became chair of the Senate Budget Committee in July, pushed for a GOP reconciliation bill over the summer that would have provided up to $150 billion in spending. The outline — largely focused on military, border and immigration spending — never materialized into a full bill before lawmakers left for the campaign trail. But Johnson has not given up.
“我们正在谈论做一个更大、更好的方案,”约翰逊去年9月对MS NOW表示。
“We’re talking about doing a bigger and better one” after the election, Johnson told MS NOW in September.
约翰逊说,军事和移民支出应作为该方案的一部分,并伴随债务上限提高、未具体说明的减少欺诈措施以及“选举公正性”措施。
The military and immigration spending should be part of the package, accompanied by a debt limit increase, unspecified fraud-reduction measures and “election integrity” measures, Johnson said.
根据两党政策中心的说法,在党派性预算调节法案中加入债务上限提高,将使共和党能够避免在政府达到债务上限时与民主党进行艰苦的谈判,这可能发生在明年晚冬到仲夏之间的某个时间。
Including a debt ceiling hike in a partisan reconciliation bill would allow Republicans to avert painstaking negotiations with Democrats when the government reaches the debt limit, which could happen sometime between late winter and mid-summer next year, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
约翰逊告诉MS NOW,他在9月下旬从参议院多数党领袖、南达科他州共和党人约翰·桑恩那里获得承诺,共和党将寻求在鸭子会期通过一项预算调节法案,并且许可改革等更日常的问题不会主导议程。
Johnson told MS NOW he secured a commitment from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., in late September that Republicans would seek to pass a reconciliation bill in the lame-duck session, and that more workaday issues like permitting reform would not dominate the schedule.
当时,桑恩告诉记者,他已就此问题与约翰逊进行过讨论,债务上限措施是将被纳入的“潜在选项”之一。
At the time, Thune told reporters he had discussed the issue with Johnson and that a debt limit measure is one of the “potential options” to be included.

北达科他州共和党参议员凯文·克雷默表示,共和党需要为通过预算调和程序推进国防开支党派性方案做好准备,理由是政府拨款法案的两党谈判可能陷入僵局,并导致长期继续决议。
Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said Republicans need to prepare for a partisan package of defense spending through reconciliation, arguing that bipartisan negotiations on government funding bills would likely stall and lead to a long-term continuing resolution.
“在这种情况下,我们必须大幅增加国防开支,而预算调和可能是唯一的办法,”克雷默上周对记者说。
“In that scenario, we have got to plus-up our national defense in a big way, and reconciliation may be the only way to do it,” Cramer told reporters last week.
民主党有几个筹码来重塑共和党议程的最后残余部分。通过预算调和法案将允许两轮几乎不受限制的修正案投票,至少能让民主党拖长进程。
Democrats have a few points of leverage to reshape the last dregs of the GOP agenda. Passing a reconciliation bill would allow two rounds of virtually unlimited amendment votes, at least allowing Democrats to drag the process out.
如果共和党最终需要民主党票数来提高债务上限,民主党可能会要求做出让步。虽然党领袖尚未提出具体要求,参议院预算委员会首席民主党议员、俄勒冈州民主党参议员杰夫·默克利告诉MS NOW,他希望他们从修复社会保障偿付能力悬崖开始,削减“医疗领域和国防领域的浪费”,并“撤销一些对最富有美国人的让步”。共和党还需要民主党支持12月的那些法案,以避免政府停摆并延续国防政策。
If Republicans ultimately need Democratic votes to increase the debt limit, Democrats would likely extract concessions. While party leaders have not outlined specific demands, Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., the top Democrat on the Budget Committee, told MS NOW he would like them to start by fixing the Social Security solvency cliff, cutting “waste in the medical world and in the defense world” and “reversing some of the giveaways to the richest Americans.”Republicans will also need Democratic support for those bills in December to avert a shutdown and extend defense policies.
关于支出水平的谈判在夏季陷入僵局,因为民主党反对总统唐纳德·特朗普与伊朗的对抗,而谈判代表未能就最高国防开支水平达成一致。
Negotiations over spending levels stalled over the summer as Democrats pushed back against President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and negotiators were unable to agree to top-line defense spending levels.
年度国防授权法案将于12月31日到期,同样因围绕伊朗战争的争论而陷入停滞。7月,民主党人阻止了一项在参议院开始审议该法案的动议,参议院少数党领袖、纽约州民主党人查克·舒默表示,民主党不会让该法案“成为伊朗所见的那种鲁莽行为的许可证”。数十年来,立法者们一直在12月31日的截止日期前完成国防授权法案的制定。但怀俄明州共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯上周对记者表示,立法者们已做好准备,可能会一直拼到最后一刻。
The annual defense authorization measure, which expires Dec. 31, similarly stalled amid fights over the Iran war. In July, Democrats blocked a motion to start work on the Senate floor on the bill, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Democrats would not let the measure “become a permission slip for that recklessness that we see occurring in Iran.”Lawmakers have consistently enacted a defense authorization measure by the Dec. 31 deadline for decades. But this time, lawmakers are prepared for work to go down to the wire, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., told reporters last week.
“当我还在美国众议院时,我在12月31日午夜时分还在开会,”卢米斯说。“我以前做过,我猜今年也有可能再次发生。”但民主党人并非共和党计划的唯一潜在障碍。共和党人内部对于调节法案中应包含的内容存在分歧——以及其部分更具雄心的条款是否值得推进。与其专注于几项首要任务,共和党的调节法案似乎正在扩大范围。
“When I was in the U.S. House, I was here in session on Dec. 31 at midnight,” Lummis said. “I’ve done it before, and I’m guessing that’s a possibility again this year.”But Democrats are not the only potential obstacle to the GOP’s plans. Republicans themselves are divided over what should go into a reconciliation bill — and whether some of its more ambitious provisions are worth pursuing. Rather than focusing on a few top priorities, a GOP reconciliation bill appears to be expanding.
卢米斯表示,她希望将一项关于加密货币政策的措施纳入其中,尽管她承认“修改税法具有挑战性”。弗吉尼亚州共和党众议员摩根·格里菲斯表示,他希望该法案包含他关于监管致命大麻产品的提案——这重新引发了一场曾使上一份临时政府拨款法案谈判复杂化的辩论。
Lummis said she would want a measure included on cryptocurrency policy, though she acknowledged “opening the tax code is challenging.”Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Va., said he would want the package to include his measure to regulate intoxicating hemp products — reopening a debate that complicated talks on the last temporary government funding bill.
其他共和党人不愿投票提高债务上限,称这必须与财政保守的节省成本措施相配套。
Other Republicans are hesitant to vote to increase the debt limit, saying it would have to be paired with fiscally conservative cost-saving measures.
“我去年投了反对票,因为该法案增加了5万亿美元,”肯塔基州共和党参议员兰德·保罗去年9月对MS NOW表示。“去年增加5万亿美元,现在又要求更多,这对美国公众来说应该是令人震惊的。”佛罗里达州共和党参议员里克·斯科特表示,他宁愿平衡联邦预算,也不愿提高债务上限。北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯表示,他可能不会支持一项债务上限法案。
“I voted against the bill last year because it raised $5 trillion,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., told MS NOW in September. “It should be astounding to the American public to raise it $5 trillion last year and be asking for more.”Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said he would rather balance the federal budget than raise the debt limit. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he likely would not support a debt limit measure.
蒂利斯在九月对MS NOW表示:“债务上限是明年的事。”“我不会在没有任何保证他们会财政负责任的情况下离开这里,提高债务。”其他人只是怀疑共和党领导人是否会兑现承诺,议员们是否会共同努力争取支持一项预算调和法案——尤其是在八月早先一次尝试失败之后。
“Debt limit’s a next year thing,” Tillis told MS NOW in September. “I’m not going to leave here raising the debt without any assurance that they’re going to be fiscally responsible.”Others are just skeptical that GOP leaders will follow through and members will work together to rally support for a reconciliation bill — especially after an earlier attempt in August fizzled.
“自从上帝还是婴儿的时候起,我就一直在听说我们正在制定一项预算调和法案的计划,”路易斯安那州共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪在九月对MS NOW表示。“你见过吗?我没见过。”
“I’ve been hearing since God was a baby that we’re working on a plan for a reconciliation bill,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., told MS NOW in September. “Have you seen one? I haven’t seen one.”