中国人民银行（PBOC）在人民币持续升值背景下提高外汇存款准备金率的干预，为中国更广泛的出口行业带来了喘息之机，分析人士表示，该举措预计将部分缓解由中国巨额贸易顺差推动的升值势头。
The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) intervention to raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio amid the yuan’s sustained rally has delivered a reprieve for China’s broader export sector, as the measure is expected to partly ease appreciation momentum driven by the country’s enormous trade surplus, analysts say.
中国货物贸易顺差在1月至9月期间攀升至创纪录的9381亿美元，较去年同期的7262亿美元有所上升。全年贸易顺差普遍预计将高于去年1.2万亿美元的创纪录水平，更大的顺差意味着更高的外汇结算量。
China’s goods trade surplus mounted to a record US$938.1 billion in the January-September period, rising from US$726.2 billion in the same period a year prior. With the full year trade surplus widely expected to be higher than last year’s US$1.2 trillion record, a larger surplus brings higher foreign exchange settlement volumes.
根据北京中信证券周二发布的一份研究报告，在新的PBOC政策出台之前，一种反馈循环——升值预期增强、出口商集中结汇、人民币升值加速——正在形成。
A feedback loop – strengthening appreciation expectations, concentrated foreign exchange settlement by exporters and accelerated renminbi gains – was taking hold prior to the new PBOC policy, according to a Tuesday research note by Citic Securities in Beijing.
这种动态在出口商将美元收入兑换成人民币时损害了他们的利益。上海纺织品出口商凯文·李（Kevin Li）表示，这对每个出口商来说都构成了一种“囚徒困境”，他的客户群主要位于美国。
This dynamic has hurt China’s exporters when they convert their dollar proceeds into yuan. It amounted to a “prisoner’s dilemma” for every exporter, said Kevin Li, a Shanghai textile product exporter with a predominantly US client base.
李将PBOC的措施描述为他业务的“喘息机会”。他目前已暂停外汇结算，并持观望态度，他表示。
Li described the PBOC’s measure as a “breather” for his business. He has paused foreign exchange settlement for now and was taking a wait-and-see stance, he said.
“该政策将于11月15日生效。它至少暂时阻止了人民币的急剧升值。”PBOC周二表示，将把外汇存款准备金率提高2个百分点至6%。中信证券预计，该调整将使240亿美元的美元流动性被冻结。
“The policy kicks in on November 15. It has at least put a stop to the yuan’s sharp appreciation for the moment.”The PBOC said Tuesday it would lift the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits by 2 percentage points to 6 per cent. Citic Securities expected the adjustment would immobilise US$24 billion of dollar liquidity.
PBOC锁定一部分美元流动性的举措应能部分抑制从众行为，并有助于缓解出口商面临的压力——东方期货徐莹（Xu Ying）。作为回应，在岸人民币昨日贬值超过300个基点，并在周三中午时段依然偏弱，人民币兑美元汇率交投于每美元6.68元以上。
The PBOC’s move to lock up a portion of US dollar liquidity should partially curb herding behaviour and help ease pressure on exportersXu Ying, Orient Futures In response, the onshore yuan weakened more than 300 basis points yesterday and remained subdued at midday on Wednesday, with the yuan trading above 6.68 yuan per US dollar.
李的大部分合同去年签订，当时在岸人民币兑美元汇率超过7元。今年以来，该货币已升值约4.3%。相比之下，他公司2025年的净利润率约为7%。
A majority of Li’s contracts were signed last year, when the onshore yuan was trading at more than 7 yuan per US dollar. The currency has gained about 4.3 per cent year-to-date. By way of comparison, his firm’s net profit margin stood at around 7 per cent in 2025.
“现在每一笔美元外汇结算对我来说都意味着亏损。我希望人民币今年12月只出现温和升值，”李补充说。
“Every US dollar FX [foreign exchange] settlement means a loss for me now. I’m hoping the yuan posts only moderate appreciation this December,” Li added.
对于中国出口商来说，12月是最沉重的月份：他们通常要结清所有未付的供应商款项，以及工资和税款。
For China’s exporters, December is the most burdensome month: it is when they routinely settle all outstanding supplier payables, plus wage and tax payments.
中信建投证券的一份报告指出，像李这样的出口商所面临的困境构成了央行的“底层逻辑”。
The predicament confronting exporters like Li formed the central bank’s “underlying calculus”, according to the Citic Securities note.
报告称：“在美元走强和美联储继续收紧货币政策的背景下，当前的升值几乎完全由在岸外汇结算推动。直接侵蚀企业利润率的过快升值步伐，很可能就是央行底层逻辑所在。”
“Against a backdrop of dollar strength and continued Federal Reserve tightening, the current appreciation is driven nearly entirely by onshore FX settlement. An overly sharp pace of gains that directly eats into corporate margins is likely what sits behind the central bank’s underlying calculus,” the note stated.
官方数据显示，国内银行1月至9月累计外汇结算达2.38万亿美元，同比增长28.3%。同期外汇售出为1.98万亿美元，同比增长10.8%。
Official figures show domestic banks recorded US$2.38 trillion in cumulative foreign exchange settlement from January through September, surging 28.3 per cent year on year. Foreign exchange sales for the same period came in at US$1.98 trillion, a 10.8 per cent year-on-year increase.
中信建投证券的报告认为，央行的干预——在升值预期变成“自我强化”之前采取——部分旨在“保障”经济的韧性。总部位于上海的东方期货首席分析师许颖也持这一观点。
The Citic Securities report argued the PBOC’s intervention – deployed before appreciation expectations could become “self-reinforcing” – partly seeks to “safeguard” the economy’s resilience. Xu Ying, chief analyst at Shanghai-based Orient Futures, shared the view.
“随着2026年出口增长和贸易顺差大幅增加，外汇结算预计将在年底前保持高位，并进一步支撑人民币升值。央行锁定一部分美元流动性的举措，应能部分抑制从众行为，并帮助缓解出口商的压力，”许颖说。
“With export growth and the trade surplus posting substantial gains in 2026, FX settlement is set to remain elevated into year-end and lend further support to yuan appreciation. The PBOC’s move to lock up a portion of US dollar liquidity should partially curb herding behaviour and help ease pressure on exporters,” Xu said.
即便如此，这对中国出口商来说可能只是喘息之机——人民币升值的趋势无法逆转。
Even so, it may prove to be just a breather for Chinese exporters – the yuan’s appreciation trend cannot be reversed.
穆迪评级信贷策略与指导集团副总裁李丽莲周三在一份报告中表示，中国人民银行的这一举措表明，决策者对人民币升值速度感到不安。
In a Wednesday note, Lillian Li, vice-president of the credit strategy and guidance group at Moody’s Ratings, said the PBOC’s step showed policymakers were uneasy with the speed of renminbi appreciation.
李丽莲在报告中指出：“鉴于出口需求强劲，通过收紧境内美元流动性，该措施应当是抑制而非逆转升值。”
“By tightening onshore US dollar liquidity, the measure should moderate rather than reverse the appreciation, given strong export demand,” Li noted.
这是今年中国人民银行第二次采取措施来抑制人民币升值。中国人民银行2月底宣布，将取消远期外汇合约的风险准备金要求，以鼓励购买美元。
It marks the second time this year the PBOC has taken steps to temper the yuan’s rally. The PBOC announced at the end of February that it would scrap risk reserve requirements for foreign exchange forward contracts in a move to encourage dollar buying.