摩根大通周三在一份报告中表示，在中东冲突造成数月扰乱之后，随着该地区出口恢复以及全球需求走弱共同推动供应超过消费，全球石油市场正重新转为供应过剩。
The global oil market is moving back into surplus after months of disruption caused by conflict in the Middle East, as recovering exports from the region and weaker global demand combine to push supply ahead of consumption, JPMorgan said in a note on Wednesday.
摩根大通估计，全球石油市场在9月已恢复至每日110万桶的过剩，10月扩大至每日140万桶，几乎与去年每日130万桶的平均水平相当。该行表示，库存和贸易流动均表明过剩的原油正在重返市场，10月全球原油进口升至每日4490万桶，较上年同期增加130万桶。这一转变背后的一个关键因素是中东石油出口从3月每日980万桶的低点回升至约每日2070万桶，尽管出口量仍低于战前水平。
其他地区产量上升也助推了供应过剩，该行估计仅拉丁美洲的原油供应就比一年前多出约每日150万桶，其中以巴西、委内瑞拉、圭亚那和阿根廷为首。该行表示，自冲突爆发以来，全球需求估计已下降每日330万桶，原因是高企的燃料价格和供应中断抑制了消费。
JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year's average of 1.3 million bpd The bank said inventories and trade flows both indicate that excess barrels are returning to the market, with global crude imports rising to 44.9 million bpd in October, up 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier A key factor behind the shift has been the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports to around 20.7 million bpd from a low of 9.8 million bpd in March, although volumes remain below pre-war levels Rising output in other regions has also contributed to the surplus, with the bank estimating that Latin America alone is supplying about 1.5 million bpd more crude than a year ago, led by Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina The bank said global demand had fallen by an estimated 3.3 million bpd since the start of the conflict, as high fuel prices and supply disruptions curbed consumption