过去两年，英国政府一直向英国公众表示，得益于人工智能，英国经济将获得4000亿英镑的提振。这一数字意在平息人们的担忧，即该技术将导致大规模失业，甚至引发经济崩溃。
For the last two years, the UK government has been telling the British public that the country could receive an economic boost of £400 billion, thanks to AI, a figure intended to calm fears that the technology would lead to sweeping job losses and even an economic crash.
但英国人工智能大臣上周承认，这一数字远高于政府的实际预测。此前有消息披露，该评估完全来自谷歌委托撰写的一份报告，而政府自身对人工智能经济收益的估计不到4000亿英镑这一数字的三分之一。人工智能大臣卡尼什卡·纳拉扬在回答议会就此问题的质询时表示，到2030年，人工智能的应用和数据投资可为英国经济增加550亿至1400亿英镑，中心估计为1200亿英镑。但他表示，即便是这一“较新的评估”，也是一个“高度不确定”的估计。
But the UK AI minister admitted last week that figure was significantly higher than the government’s actual projections after it was revealed that assessment came solely from a report commissioned by Google, and that its own estimation of AI’s economic benefit was less than a third of that £400 billion figure.n AI minister Kanishka Narayan, answering a parliamentary question on the issue, said that AI adoption and data investment could add £55 billion to £140 billion to the UK economy by 2030, bringing the central estimate to £120 billion. But even this “more recent assessment,” he said, was a “hugely uncertain” estimate.
纳拉扬表示，4000亿英镑这一数字“取自一份公开可得的2023年报告，该报告由谷歌委托、英国咨询公司Public First（现称PF Global）撰写”。
Narayan said the £400b figure “was drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First,” a British consultancy firm now referred to as PF Global.
在回应《连线》杂志关于这两个数字差异的提问时，PF Global经济主管乔纳森·杜邦表示，差异部分源于他们认为政府对人工智能的采用速度缓慢。“人工智能是一项发展非常迅速的技术，随着我们了解得更多，我们不可避免地要更新模型背后的假设。与我们较早的模型相比，政府使用的数字假设的采用速度远慢于我们2023年创建模型时看起来可能的速度。”
Responding to WIRED’s questions about the difference between the figures, PF Global’s head of economics, Jonathan Dupont, said the disparity was partially because of what they saw as the government’s slow adoption of AI. “AI is a very fast moving technology, and, as we learn more, we inevitably have to update the assumptions lying behind our models. Compared to our older model, the numbers the government uses assume a much slower rate of adoption than looked possible back in our model that was created in 2023.”
政府各部门和机构在两届政府任内使用谷歌的4000亿英镑数字已近两年。部长们至少自2025年11月起就已掌握较低的估计值，距本周的承认已近一年，然而负责学徒制的政府机构英格兰技能局四个月后仍在发布旧数字。
Government departments and agencies used Google’s £400 billion figure for almost two years, under two governments. Ministers have had the lower estimate since at least November 2025, almost a year before this week’s admission, yet Skills England, a government agency responsible for apprenticeships, was still publishing the old figure four months later.
纳亚兰的议会答复是《连线》所能找到的首份记录在案的证据，显示政府将这两个数字并列提出，或称该报告是由谷歌委托编写的。该答复并未撤回4000亿英镑这一数字，也未表示该数字有误。
Nayaran’s parliamentary answer is the first recorded evidence WIRED could find of the government setting the two numbers side by side, or saying that the report was commissioned by Google. The answer did not withdraw the £400 billion figure or say it had been wrong.
英国下议院科学、创新与技术委员会主席、工党议员奇·翁武拉女爵对《连线》表示：“政府推动人工智能等技术改善公共服务的潜力是正确的。然而，这些报告凸显了我的委员会所发现的、实现公共服务数字化转型的核心障碍之一：炒作。”
Dame Chi Onwurah, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, told WIRED: “The government is right to promote the potential for technology like AI to improve public services. However, these reports highlight one of the central barriers to delivering the digital transformation of public services my committee has identified: hype.
“经济项目不可避免地依赖假设，但夸大技术的好处可能会削弱变革的论据。政府需要对技术如AI能交付什么保持现实态度，并与公众坦诚沟通潜在节省的费用。”
“Economic projects inevitably rely on assumptions, but overstating the benefits of technology risks undermining the case for change. The government needs to be realistic about what technology like AI can deliver and be transparent with the public about potential savings.”
PF Global将AI自上而下的采用以及融入公务员工作流程的例子，作为采用率可能提高的实例加以强调。“虽然我们没有改变对技术整体潜力的看法，但鉴于我们在实践中看到的采用率较慢，我们对2030年可能实现的潜在金额的中位估计更接近政府的数字——在那之后增长会逐步加速。”
PF Global highlighted more top-down adoption of AI and integration into civil service workflows as examples of how take-up could improve. “While we haven’t changed our view on the overall potential of technology, given the slower rate of adoption we’ve seen in practice, our central estimate for the amount of potential likely to be achieved by 2030 is much closer to the Government’s number—with growth ramping up in the next few years after that.”
来自保守党贵族、于2025年1月就4000亿英镑说法的来源向部长们提问但未收到回复的休·霍姆斯勋爵告诉《WIRE》杂志：“政府反复使用的数字，随后也被其他多个组织所使用，如今已被大幅且正确地调整了。政府早点更直接地澄清这一点会更好。”
Lord Holmes of Richmond, the Conservative peer who asked ministers in January 2025 about the origins of the £400 billion claim but did not receive a response, told WIRED: “It is unfortunate that the figure used repeatedly by the government, and then, unsurprisingly, by multiple other organizations has now been significantly and rightly adjusted. It would have been better for the government to clarify this much sooner and more directly.”
他补充说：“可靠的数据至关重要，因为数十亿英镑的资金以及政府如何部署这些资金都取决于它。”围绕这两个数字——1200亿英镑和4000亿英镑——的争论，是关于政府支持与过度宣传之间界限的更广泛辩论的一部分。前技术部长彼得·凯利也使用了4000亿英镑来宣传AI的好处，而许多不在政府中的议员对技术的潜在问题提出了质疑。
He added: “Robust data is critical, not least as billions of pounds of our money and how the government chooses to deploy it depend on it.”The spat over these two numbers—£120 billion and £400 billion—is part of a wider debate over the line between government support and boosterism. Former technology minister Peter Kyle also used the £400 billion while promoting the benefits of AI, while many parliamentarians outside of government raised questions about potential issues around the technology.
阿达·洛夫莱斯研究所的苏梅达·德什穆克对《连线》杂志表示：“政府修订了关于AI能为经济带来多少增量的估算，这值得欢迎——但令人担忧的是，此前近两年里，部长们一直引用的是一个由谷歌资助的研究得出的数字。这反映了一种更普遍的现象。那些看似精确的AI相关数字，往往内嵌着假设和利益动机，而相关研究常常由行业资助或塑造。
“The government’s revised estimates for how much AI could add to the economy are welcome—but it’s concerning that they come after almost two years of ministers citing a figure from research that was paid for by Google,” Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute told WIRED. “This reflects a wider pattern. Figures about AI that look precise often have assumptions and incentives built into them, and industry often funds or shapes the research behind them.
“政府应当先检验拿到的数字，再据此制定政策，资助独立研究，并衡量所承诺的收益是否兑现。在使用任何关于AI带来的经济或生产率增长的数字之前，政府都应始终先问几个简单的问题——这个数字从哪来，它假设了什么，以及谁真正从这个数字中受益？”内阁办公室——负责政府AI事务的部门——和谷歌均被请求置评。
“The government should test the numbers it is given before it builds policy on them, fund independent research, and measure whether promised gains are delivered. It should always start by asking simple questions before it uses any number around economic or productivity gains from AI—where did it come from, what does it assume, and who actually benefits from a given figure?”The Cabinet Office, the department responsible for AI in government and Google, were approached for comment.
PF Global表示，他们为谷歌所做的工作仍在继续，但所有研究都是独立的，所有判断和假设均出自他们自己。
PF Global said their work for Google continued but all research was independent and all judgments and assumptions were their own.