尽管在人工智能领域投入了数十亿资金，但据英格兰银行称，该技术几乎未为英国企业带来生产率提升。
Despite the billions being thrown at artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered little in the way of productivity gains for UK businesses, according to the Bank of England.
在其最新的《货币政策报告》中，这家央行发现，过去三年人工智能使英国生产率提高了约 0.5%。这相当于自 2024 年初以来，每年仅增加 0.1 到 0.2 个百分点的生产率增长，远非硅谷所承诺的经济革命。报告称：“人工智能投资似乎在一定程度上支撑了当前的需求强劲，但迄今为止，只有证据表明人工智能推动英国生产率增长适度上升。”
In its latest Monetary Policy Report, the central bank found that AI has increased UK productivity by an estimated 0.5 percent over the past three years. That works out to just 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points of additional annual productivity growth since early 2024, hardly the economic revolution Silicon Valley has been promising. "AI investment appears to be contributing somewhat to current demand strength, but so far there is only evidence of a modest AI-driven rise in UK productivity growth," the Bank said.
即使是据称最有望从该技术受益的行业，也鲜有建树。信息和通信等人工智能密集型行业的生产率增长有所改善，但尚未超过疫情前的平均水平。这并非意味着人工智能对英国经济毫无作为。央行估计，自 2026 年初以来，人工智能相关活动占英国 GDP 增长的略低于五分之一，尽管其中很大部分似乎来自开发和部署该技术的公司，而非企业通过使用它而变得更有生产力。
Even industries supposedly best placed to benefit from the technology have little to boast about. Productivity growth has improved in AI-heavy sectors such as information and communications, but has yet to exceed pre-pandemic averages. That's not to say AI isn't doing anything for the British economy. The bank estimates that AI-related activity has accounted for just under a fifth of UK GDP growth since the beginning of 2026, though much of that appears to come from companies developing and deploying the technology rather than businesses becoming more productive by using it.
报告称：“迄今为止，人工智能对增长的贡献似乎反映了人工智能技术上游开发和实施的活动，而非经济其他领域采用这些技术带来的更广泛收益。”
"The contribution to growth from AI to date appears to reflect activity in the upstream development and implementation of AI technologies rather than broader gains from their adoption elsewhere in the economy," the report said.
换句话说，销售人工智能证明比实际使用它更有利可图。央行还警告，不要过分归功于人工智能推动了英国近期的生产率改善。生产率的大幅提升似乎反映了企业在产出持续增长的同时减少招聘，部分原因是公司正在调整疫情后的人员配置决策，并应对更高的就业成本。
In other words, selling AI is proving rather more lucrative than actually using it, The bank also cautioned against giving AI too much credit for Britain's recent productivity improvements. Much of the increase appears to reflect businesses hiring fewer workers while output continues to grow, partly as companies unwind post-pandemic staffing decisions and respond to higher employment costs.
尽管有预测称人工智能将使大量劳动力变得多余，但回应英格兰银行“决策者小组”调查的企业表示，迄今为止对就业几乎没有整体影响。不过，这项技术正让一些雇主不太倾向于雇佣新员工或替换离职员工。其他研究表明，企业仍在等待回报。市场研究公司Gartner上月发布的一项调查发现，虽然四分之三的公司董事会成员预期人工智能将提高生产率并降低成本，但只有3%的组织真正实现了目标。
And despite predictions that AI will make vast swathes of the workforce redundant, firms responding to the Bank's Decision Maker Panel survey reported virtually no overall impact on employment so far. The technology is, however, making some employers less inclined to hire new staff or replace those who leave. Other studies suggest businesses are still waiting for the payoff. A Gartner survey published last month found that while three-quarters of corporate board members expected AI to improve productivity and cut costs, just 3 percent of organizations had actually achieved their targets.
与此同时，38%的组织在人工智能支出上已超预算，但85%计划明年投入更多资金。另一项涉及近6000名高管的研究于2月发布，发现超过80%的企业未见人工智能对就业或生产率产生可辨别的影响。显然，对令人失望的回报的回答是继续开支票。人工智能支出与实际回报之间日益扩大的脱节也引起了金融监管机构的关注。
Meanwhile, 38 percent were already over budget on AI spending, yet 85 percent planned to spend even more next year. Another study involving nearly 6,000 executives, published in February, found that more than 80 percent of firms had seen no discernible impact from AI on either employment or productivity. Apparently, the answer to disappointing returns is to keep writing checks. That growing disconnect between AI spending and actual returns has also caught the attention of financial watchdogs.
国际货币基金组织上月警告称，如果承诺的利润未能出现，人工智能支出热潮可能会反噬投资者，并可能拖累更广泛的经济。国际清算银行在6月发出了类似警报，将当前的支出热潮比作1990年代的互联网泡沫。其担忧在于，科技巨头基于人工智能最终将带来同样巨额回报的假设，投入巨资建设基础设施，如果现实不配合，它们将面临风险。
The International Monetary Fund warned last month that the AI spending spree could come back to bite investors if the promised profits don't show up, potentially dragging the wider economy down with it. The Bank for International Settlements sounded a similar alarm in June, comparing the current spending spree to the dotcom boom of the 1990s. Its concern is that tech giants are committing enormous sums to infrastructure on the assumption that AI will eventually deliver equally enormous returns, leaving them exposed if reality fails to cooperate.
然而，人工智能已在一个领域显现影响：价格。英格兰银行指出，对人工智能相关产品（包括存储芯片）的需求激增，推高了中国和其他亚洲经济体的出口价格，增加了英国的进口成本。
However, AI is already making its presence felt in one area: prices. The Bank of England noted that surging demand for AI-related products, including memory chips, has pushed up export prices in China and other Asian economies, raising import costs for Britain.
因此，尽管企业仍在等待由 AI 带来的生产力红利，但这波热潮的成本已开始在经济中传导。该行尚未对这项技术彻底失望。受访企业预计，未来三年 AI 将为年均生产力增长贡献约 0.9 个百分点，增益大致均分于产出增长加快与就业增长放缓两方面。看来 AI 行业最令人印象深刻的生产力成就，是说服企业持续掏腰包。®
So while businesses are still waiting for their AI-powered productivity windfall, the costs of the boom are already making their way through the economy. The bank isn't writing off the technology just yet. Businesses surveyed expect AI to add around 0.9 percentage points to annual productivity growth over the next three years, with the gains split roughly equally between faster output growth and slower employment growth. It seems the AI industry's most impressive productivity achievement is convincing businesses to keep opening their wallets. ®