
唐纳德·特朗普将在明年1月面对一个由民主党稳固控制的国会,这可能导致长达两年的政策僵局,其间充斥着激烈的调查和弹劾。
Donald Trump will face a Congress solidly under Democratic control in January and that could lead to two years of grinding policy gridlock peppered with acrimonious investigations and impeachment.
但这也可能促成双方达成对经济产生广泛影响的协议。特朗普的一些立场与民主党的优先事项一致,而避免债务违约或政府停摆等危机的最后期限也可能推动妥协。
But it could also lead to deals between the two sides that have wide-ranging impacts on the economy. Some Trump positions align with Democratic priorities, and deadlines to avert crises such as a debt default or government shutdown also can drive compromise.
选举 随着中期选举的压倒性结果,在共和党领导的跛脚鸭国会于年底解散之前试图处理重大立法的努力极不可能成功。这意味着议员们可能会通过临时拨款来应对政府停摆的最后期限,将摊牌推迟到春季,而债务上限则留待明年解决。
ELEC With the resounding midterm result, attempts to tackle major legislation before the lame duck GOP-led Congress disbands at the end of the year are highly unlikely to succeed. That means lawmakers probably will address a government shutdown deadline with interim funding, delaying delaying a showdown until spring and the debt ceiling left for next year.
选举惨败使得目前美国众议院微弱且分裂的多数党中士气低落的议员们更不可能团结起来支持一项党派性的预算法案。民主党人可能希望等到明年拥有更多筹码时再行动。
The election walloping makes it even less likely the dispirited members of the slender and fractious current US House majority will unify behind a partisan budget bill. Democrats will likely want to wait until they have more leverage next year.
参议院共和党人将忙于在失去多数党地位之前尽可能确认更多的司法和行政提名。华盛顿对最高法院大法官可能退休高度警惕。
The Senate GOP will be occupied by an attempt to confirm as many judicial and administration nominations as possible before they lose the majority. Washington is on high alert for a Supreme Court retirement.
明年国会中适合妥协的领域包括:废除债务上限、增加国防和国内机构支出、续签奥巴马医改补贴、限制药品价格,以及通过一系列新的贸易协议降低推高通胀的关税。
Among the areas ripe for compromise in next year’s Congress are abolishing the debt ceiling, raising defense and domestic agency spending, renewing Obamacare subsides, capping drug prices and lowering inflation-spiking tariffs through a series of new trade deals.
华盛顿经验丰富的民主党人和共和党人在采访中指出,在特朗普第一任期内,预算和债务上限的最后期限迫使财政政策达成妥协,而民主党控制的众议院在2019年通过了美墨加自由贸易协定。
Experienced Democrats and Republicans in Washington noted in interviews that during the first Trump administration, budget and debt ceiling deadlines forced compromises on fiscal policy while a Democratic House passed the US-Mexico-Canada free trade deal in 2019.
NBC新闻预测,民主党最终可能在众议院获得258个席位,共和党获得177个席位,民主党将拥有81席的多数优势,远高于其目前在众议院的214个席位。在参议院,民主党及与其结盟的独立人士现在将至少占据54个席位,仅阿拉斯加州和密西西比州的席位归属仍未确定。目前,民主党拥有47个参议院席位。
NBC News projected Democrats could wind up with 258 House seats to Republicans 177, an 81-seat majority, and well above the 214 seats they hold in the current House. In the Senate, Democrats and independents aligned with them will now hold at least 54 seats, with just Alaska and Mississippi still unresolved. Currently, they have 47 Senate seats.

在民主党大胜态势明朗后,特朗普在接受福克斯新闻的午夜采访时表示,他可以与民主党控制的国会达成妥协。
Trump told Fox News in a midnight interview after the Democratic surge was clear that he could forge compromises with a Democratic Congress.
“我是一个喜欢把事情做成的人,”特朗普说。“我可以在很多问题上与他们合作。”民主党在众议院即将形成的巨大多数优势,很可能使达成协议更加容易。
“I’m a person that likes getting things done,” Trump said. “I can work with them on a lot of things.”The large incoming Democratic majority in the House likely makes deals easier.
即将上任的议长哈基姆·杰弗里斯不会完全受制于少数最左翼的民主党人,对这些人来说,与特朗普达成任何协议都是不可接受的。即使没有他们的选票,他也有回旋余地通过妥协性立法,同时推进他们所强烈要求的调查。
Incoming Speaker Hakeem Jeffries won’t be completely beholden to a small handful of the most left-wing Democrats, for whom any deals with Trump is anathema. He has breathing room to pass compromise legislation even without their votes, while pursuing the investigations they are clamoring for.
有望成为众议院预算委员会主席的民主党众议员布伦丹·博伊尔表示,他的政党将推动扭转医疗补助计划的削减,并恢复已到期的奥巴马医改保费补贴,作为明年春季政府拨款协议的一部分。共和党人通过的医疗补助削减将在中期选举后开始生效,这将使该党把注意力集中在医疗保健上。
Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle, in line to become the House Budget Committee Chair, said his party will push to reverse Medicaid cuts and restore expired Obamacare premium subsidies as part of a government funding deal next spring. Medicaid cuts Republicans passed start to take effect after the midterms and will focus the party on healthcare.
“时间安排迫使我们必须解决这个问题,”他在选前接受彭博社采访时说。“我们必须通过预算,这给了民主党杠杆。”议员和分析人士在周二投票前接受的采访中表示,国家面临的一些最大问题在未来两年内可能不会取得实质性进展。不要指望美国赤字大规模削减、社会保障信托基金即将出现的缺口得到解决,也不要指望一项解决安全、失业和数据中心能源使用问题的全面人工智能法案。这些挑战很可能要等到2028年总统大选之后才能处理。以下是2027年和2028年最有可能打破僵局的领域。
“The timing forces the issue,” he said in a pre-election interview with Bloomberg. “We have to pass a budget and that gives Democrats leverage.”Some of the biggest issues confronting the nation likely will not see substantial progress for the next two years, lawmakers and analysts said in interviews conducted before Tuesday’s vote. Don’t expect large-scale US deficit reduction, a solution to the impending shortfall in the Social Security trust fund or a comprehensive artificial intelligence bill that tackles security, job losses and data center energy usage. Those challenges will likely have wait until after the 2028 presidential election. Here are the areas most ripe to break the gridlock in 2027 and 2028.
除非国会就联邦政府的法定借款上限采取行动,否则美国将在2027年底前债务违约。
The US is on course to default on its debt by late 2027 unless Congress acts on the federal government’s legal borrowing limit.
沃尔夫研究公司分析师托宾·马库斯表示,民主党几乎肯定会要求增加支出作为回报。马库斯曾担任时任副总统乔·拜登的高级政策顾问。
Democrats will almost certainly demand spending increases in return, said Tobin Marcus, a Wolfe Research analyst who once served as a top policy adviser to then-Vice President Joe Biden.
即将出任众议院预算委员会主席的博伊尔表示,他也希望利用这一时机废除法定债务上限,特朗普此前曾支持这一举措。
Boyle, incoming the House Budget Committee Chair, said he also hopes to use the moment to get rid of the legal debt ceiling, a step Trump has previously supported.
博伊尔说:“我绝不可能投票支持把问题往后拖,让这件事在2029年成为对付民主党总统的武器。”
“There is no world in which I vote to kick the can down the road so that this is weaponized against a Democratic president in 2029,” Boyle said.
一些共和党人预测,特朗普会欣然同意,即使这会让未来的共和党国会失去谈判筹码。
Some Republicans predicted Trump would readily agree even it costs a future Republican Congress negotiating clout.

反税活动人士格罗弗·诺奎斯特说:“特朗普肯定会签的。他只考虑未来两年。”围绕借款上限的对决不太可能对美国债务本身产生影响。国会中的民主党人无意进一步削减社会安全网,而特朗普也没有计划撤销他的减税政策——这是他的一项标志性成就。
“Trump would sign that for sure,” anti-tax activist Grover Norquist said. “He only thinks of the next two years.”A showdown over the borrowing limit isn’t likely to make a dent in the US debt itself. Democrats in Congress are in no mood to further cut into the social safety net, and Trump has no plans to roll back his tax cuts, a signature achievement.
灯塔政策顾问公司的斯蒂芬·迈罗表示,协议的“轮廓”已经清晰:用提高债务上限换取非国防支出的增加。
The “contours” of a deal are already clear: trading a debt ceiling hike for an increase in non-defense spending, Stephen Myrow at Beacon Policy Advisors said.
前参议院共和党预算工作人员、现供职于两党政策中心的比尔·霍格兰表示,虽然目前由共和党控制的国会可以在明年1月前通过提高债务上限或废除债务上限来剥夺民主党的筹码,但由于党内分歧,他们可能不会这么做。
While the current Republican-controlled Congress could take the leverage away from Democrats by raising the debt limit or abolishing it before January, they probably won’t because of internal party divisions, said former Senate Republican budget staffer Bill Hoagland, now with the Bipartisan Policy Center.
民主党人计划推动国会就撤销特朗普关税进行投票,他们指责这些关税加剧了通货膨胀,以此向总统施压,迫使其达成降低进口税的贸易协议。
Democrats plan to force congressional votes on rolling back Trump tariffs they blame for stoking inflation, raising pressure on the president to strike trade deals lowering import taxes.
一个潜在的早期候选方案是修订版《美墨加协定》(USMCA),该协定管辖与墨西哥和加拿大的贸易。特朗普政府已经在与加拿大进行新一轮谈判,这项努力可能会达成一项降低对加拿大进口商品惩罚性关税的协议。
One potential early candidate is a revised USMCA, which governs trade with Mexico and Canada. The Trump administration is already engaged in renewed negotiations with Canada, an effort that could yield a deal that lowers the punitive tariffs on Canadian imports.
民主党人表示,他们愿意接受能够降低关税的国际贸易协定,这些关税推高了食品价格,并引发了贸易报复,打击了美国农产品出口。
Democrats said they would be open to international trade deals that bring down tariffs which have raised food prices and provoked trade retaliation against US farm exports.

“从贸易协定的角度来看,我希望政府能重新考虑其关税策略,鉴于这对全美农民和家庭造成了什么影响,”温和派众议院民主党人、新泽西州的乔什·戈特海默(Josh Gottheimer)说。
“I am hopeful from a trade deal perspective that the administration will rethink its tariff strategy given what it is doing to farmers and families across the board,” said moderate House Democrat Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey.
诺奎斯特表示,在中期选举失利之后,特朗普面临更多共和党议员反对其关税政策的风险,并可能面临由三分之二多数支持的、足以推翻总统否决的民主党立法以终止关税。降低关税的贸易协定为他提供了一条出路,特别是如果他能指出外国政府做出了让步。
In the aftermath of midterm election losses, Trump risks more Republican lawmakers turning against his tariffs and could confront a veto-proof two-thirds majorities backing Democratic legislation to end the duties, Norquist said. Trade deals lowering tariffs offer him a way out, especially if he can point to concessions from foreign governments.
“总统可以说‘任务完成’,”诺奎斯特说。“他可以宣布问题已得到改善。”特朗普经常主张降低美国人购买处方药的价格,并在担任总统期间与制药公司达成了自愿降价协议。
“The president could say mission accomplished,” said Norquist. “He could announce the problem is improved.”Trump has often advocated bringing down the prices Americans pay for prescription drugs and as president struck voluntary drug price agreements with pharmaceutical companies.
国会可以采取更有力的行动,例如对制药商实施价格管制,或扩大医疗保险(Medicare)可就其进行谈判以获取更低价格的药品清单。
Congress can take more forceful action, such as imposing price controls on drug makers or expanding the list of drugs that Medicare can negotiate on for lower prices.
参议院已有两党立法,由民粹派共和党人、密苏里州的乔什·霍利(Josh Hawley)和民主党人、佛蒙特州的彼得·韦尔奇(Peter Welch)牵头,旨在落实特朗普的一项心头好政策:通过法律强制要求制药公司向美国人提供“最惠国”药价,价格不得高于这些公司在国外收取的最低价格。
There is already bipartisan legislation, led in the Senate by populist Republican Josh Hawley of Missouri and Democrat Peter Welch of Vermont, to act on a favorite Trump demand: legally requiring pharmaceutical companies to offer Americans “Most Favored Nation” drug prices no higher than the lowest prices the companies charge abroad.
降低药价的立法,特别是如果被视为能为政府医疗项目节省开支,可能会被纳入更广泛的预算协议中。
Legislation to lower drug prices, especially if they are seen as generating savings for government health programs, could be included in a wider budget deal.

民主党人将要求特朗普撤销其标志性税法中实施的医疗补助和食品券削减。这些削减是国会共和党人寻求的,特朗普从未公开推动过。因此,在为避免2027年政府停摆或解决债务上限问题而进行的谈判中,这些削减可能会被摆上桌面。
Democrats will be demanding that Trump reverse cuts to Medicaid and food stamps enacted as part of Trump’s signature tax law. Those cuts were sought by congressional Republicans and Trump never publicly promoted them. So they could be on the table in negotiations to avoid a 2027 government shutdown or address the debt ceiling.
特朗普正敦促国会将国防开支增加50%,这对从洛克希德·马丁到波音、再到通用动力和雷神等武器制造商来说是一笔5000亿美元的利好。
Trump is pushing Congress for a 50% increase in defense spending, a $500 billion boon to weapons-makers from Lockheed Martin to Boeing to General Dynamics and Raytheon.
与此同时,民主党人急于撤销埃隆·马斯克的政府效率部对国内机构所做的削减,尤其是卫生和教育领域。
Democrats, meanwhile, are eager to reverse cuts Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency made to domestic agencies, particularly health and education.
尽管目前由共和党控制的国会理论上可以在新的民主党国会就职前通过一项全年拨款协议,但参议院的民主党人不太可能同意,除非民主党的优先事项被纳入其中。
Though the current Republican-controlled Congress could theoretically pass a full-year funding deal before the new Democratic Congress takes office, Democrats in the Senate aren’t likely to go along with that unless Democrats’ priorities are included.
两党都认识到,五角大楼将需要紧急注入资金,以补充伊朗战争期间消耗的导弹库存。一个规模更接近1000亿美元的定向方案,再加上对国内机构的增拨,可能成为最终预算协议的基础。
There is a bipartisan recognition that the Pentagon will need an emergency infusion of money to replenish missile stocks spent during the Iran War. A targeted package closer to $100 billion, paired with increases for domestic agencies ,could be the foundation of an eventual budget deal.
负责任联邦预算委员会的马克·戈德温表示,“两党共同的不负责任”是分裂政府最可能的结果,即双方都增加各自优先事项的支出。
Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said that “bipartisan irresponsibility” is the most likely outcome of divided government where both sides increase spending on their priorities.
即便如此,他表示,美国国债市场可能是一个限制因素。美国债务工具的收益率一直接近二十年来的高点,10年期收益率自9月以来一直在5%左右徘徊。参议院本月准备审议一些参议院民主党人与白宫之间的一项初步协议,以加快能源项目的审批,但该法案的前景不明朗,一些众议院民主党人敦促同僚等到本党拥有更多筹码时再行动。
Even so, the US treasuries market could be a limiting factor, he said. Yields on US debt instruments have been near their two-decade highs, with the 10-year hovering around 5% since September The Senate is poised this month to consider a tentative deal between some Senate Democrats and the White House to speed up approval of energy projects, but the outlook for the bill is murky with some House Democrats urging colleagues to wait until their party has more leverage.
许可制度的变更将加快管道、输电线路及其他大型基础设施项目的开发,同时要求采取保护措施,防止因耗电量巨大的人工智能数据中心导致电价上涨。
The permitting changes would speed up development of pipelines, power lines and other major infrastructure projects, while requiring protections against electricity price hikes driven by power-hungry AI data centers.
这将是石油公司和可再生能源开发商的重要胜利。能源行业长期以来一直寻求加快联邦许可审批,并缩减可能导致数年延误和数亿美元额外成本的环境审查。这也是白宫的主要优先事项之一,作为回报,白宫承诺允许一些自特朗普上任以来被联邦机构搁置的风电项目推进。
It would be an important victory for oil companies and renewable energy developers. The energy industry has long sought to accelerate federal permitting and scale back environmental reviews that can lead to years of delay and hundreds of millions of dollars in extra costs. It is also a major priority for the White House, which in return has promised to allow some of the wind projects that have been held up by federal agencies since Trump took office.

加利福尼亚州民主党籍众议员贾里德·哈夫曼有望领导众议院自然资源委员会,他表示民主党人应坚持争取更好的协议。哈夫曼担心的条款包括削弱《濒危物种法案》——这部被许多环保主义者视为神圣不可侵犯的基石环保法律。他还表示,参议院法案在确保风能、太阳能及其他清洁能源项目得到公平对待方面做得不够。
Representative Jared Huffman, a California Democrat who is poised to lead the House’s natural resources committee said Democrats should hold out for a better deal. Among Huffman’s concerns are provisions weakening the Endangered Species Act, a bedrock environmental law considered sacrosanct by many environmentalists. He also said the Senate bill doesn’t do enough to ensure fair treatment for wind, solar and other clean energy projects.
“了解共和党人士的作风,在跛脚鸭会期,这项协议只会变得更糟,而不会变好,”哈夫曼在大选前表示。“大多数民主党人将想看看11月3日的情况如何,然后再做现实核算。”前特朗普政府国内政策高级官员约瑟夫·格罗根表示,在许多问题上,如果民主党人准备好达成交易,他们可能会在谈判桌对面找到一位愿意合作的伙伴。
“Knowing the GOP players, this deal will only get worse, not better, during the lame duck,” Huffman said ahead of the election. “Most Democrats will want to see how things go on November 3rd and then do a reality check.”On many matters, Democrats could find a willing negotiating partner across the table if they come ready to make a bargain, Joseph Grogan, a former top Trump administration domestic policy official, said.
“我认为特朗普会与民主党人达成协议,”现任华盛顿科文顿伯灵律师事务所公共政策团队联合主席的格罗根补充道。“他一出生就是为了做交易的。”
“I think Trump would do a deal with Democrats,” added Grogan, now co-chair of the Washington-based law firm Covington and Burling’s public policy team. “He came out of the womb looking to make deals.”