在特朗普第二个任期的头两年里，唐纳德·特朗普总统受益于共和党在国会两院均占多数。共和党控制白宫和国会，使该党在2025年通过了一项大规模减税法案。由于党内忠实人士掌管国会委员会，特朗普及其政府在很大程度上免受此类机构的严格审查。
In the first two years of his second term, President Donald Trump has benefited from his Republican Party holding majorities in both chambers of Congress. Republican control of the White House and Congress allowed the party to pass a sweeping tax-cut measure in 2025. With party faithful running congressional committees, Trump and his administration have largely been insulated from tough scrutiny from such bodies.
如今，这种统一的共和党控制局面正在戛然而止：民主党在11月3日的国会选举中赢得了众议院和参议院的多数席位。民主党将控制明年1月初召开的新一届国会，这将使特朗普政府面临更大的监督，并迫使其在希望推动立法时接受妥协。
Now that period of unified Republican control is coming to an abrupt end: Democrats have secured majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the Nov. 3 congressional elections. The Democratic Party’s control of the new Congress that will convene in early January will expose the Trump administration to greater oversight and force it to accept compromise if it wants to enact legislation.
与此同时，总统无需国会也能做很多事情。特朗普已通过发布广泛的行政命令（其中一些已被法院推翻），以及在未经国会授权的情况下对伊朗开战，测试了总统权力的边界。
At the same time, there’s a lot a president can do without Congress. Trump already has tested the bounds of a president’s power by issuing expansive executive orders, including some that have been struck down by the courts, and waging war against Iran without congressional authorization.
在国会两院均占多数，使民主党有能力阻挠其反对的任何立法。但这并不能使他们推动自己的立法。
Having a majority in both chambers of Congress gives Democrats the ability to thwart any legislation they oppose. But it doesn’t enable them to enact legislation of their own.
对于大多数立法，参议院批准需要超级多数，这是一个很高的门槛。在参议院，议员享有被称为“阻挠议事”的特权，即要求无休止辩论以阻挠立法的权利。在100个席位的参议院，结束阻挠议事需要60票——因此，通过大多数立法也需要60票。
For most legislation, Senate approval requires a supermajority, a high bar to reach. In the Senate, members enjoy a privilege known as the filibuster, which is the prerogative to demand never-ending debate to thwart legislation. It takes 60 votes in the 100-seat Senate to end a filibuster — and thus 60 votes to pass most legislation.
由于民主党掌控国会两院，他们可以通过名为预算协调的程序绕过冗长辩论。该程序允许用于涉及支出、税收和联邦债务上限的法案，债务上限是国会设定的美国政府借款上限。首先，众议院和参议院必须就预算决议达成一致，该决议设定总体支出和收入目标。随后，以“协调”税收和支出做法与该预算决议为名义推进的法案，在参议院只需简单多数票即可获得通过。
With control of both houses of Congress, the Democrats can get around the filibuster using a process called budget reconciliation that’s permitted for bills relating to spending, taxes and the federal debt limit, which is a cap established by Congress on US government borrowing. First, the House and Senate must agree to a budget resolution, which sets overall spending and revenue targets. Then, bills advanced in the name of “reconciling” tax and spending practices with that budget resolution need only a simple majority vote to win approval in the Senate.
当年完全掌控国会的共和党正是利用这一程序，在特朗普第一个任期的2017年通过了减税法案，并在其第二个任期的2025年再次通过减税法案。
It’s this process that Republicans, then in full control of Congress, used to pass tax cuts in 2017 in Trump’s first term and again in 2025 in his second.
当然，特朗普可以否决国会通过的任何法案。在选举日之前接受福克斯新闻采访时，特朗普表示，如果民主党在国会获胜，他可能会成为“否决先生”。要推翻总统的否决，需要众议院和参议院各三分之二的多数票，而民主党尽管有所斩获，并不拥有这一多数。与此同时，如果特朗普否决获得显著民意支持的法案——例如旨在解决选民在选举前最关心的负担能力问题的法案——他将冒着进一步拉低自己支持率的风险，而他的支持率已是二战以来历任总统中最低的之一。
Of course, Trump can veto any bill passed by Congress. In an interview with Fox News in advance of election day, Trump said he may become “Mr. Veto” if the Democrats prevail in Congress. To overcome a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, which Democrats do not hold, despite their gains. At the same time, were Trump to veto bills with significant popular support, for example bills aimed at addressing issues of affordability that were top of mind for voters going into the election, he would risk further tanking his approval rating, which is one of the lowest of any president since World War II.
此类法案的选项将包括逆转2025年税法中对医疗补助计划的支出削减——医疗补助计划是一项主要面向穷人的政府医疗保险项目——以及恢复加强版补贴以帮助人们支付医疗保险费用。
Options for such bills would include a reversal of the 2025 tax law’s spending reductions to Medicaid, a government health insurance program primarily for the poor, and a revival of enhanced subsidies to help people pay for health insurance.
特朗普在福克斯新闻的采访中表示，如果他持续对民主党推动的法案行使否决权，假以时日，民主党人就会变得愿意与他达成交易。只要双方有妥协意愿，即使一党占据白宫、另一党控制国会一院或两院，重大立法仍能成为法律。例子包括1983年的社会保障拯救方案、1986年的重大税制改革，以及1996年对福利制度的全面改革。
In the interview with Fox News, Trump suggested that were he to use his veto consistently against bills promoted by Democrats, in time they would prove amenable to making deals with him. Given a willingness to compromise, significant legislation can become law even when one party has the White House and the other controls one or both chambers of Congress. Examples include a Social Security rescue package in 1983, a major tax overhaul in 1986, and sweeping changes to the welfare system in 1996.
特朗普及其政府可能面临国会委员会新的或重新焕发活力的调查，这些委员会将转为民主党控制。潜在的调查目标包括特朗普家族的股票交易和加密货币业务、私营企业为特朗普白宫舞厅项目提供的资金、政府的移民执法政策，以及政府对已故性犯罪者兼金融家杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关档案的处理。
Trump and his administration will likely face new or re-energized investigations by congressional committees that will switch to Democratic control. Potential targets for probes include the Trump family’s stock trading and cryptocurrency ventures, private companies’ funding of Trump’s White House ballroom project, the administration’s immigration enforcement policies, and its handling of files related to the late sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein.
但国会调查的权力有重要限制。国会委员会可以发出传票，试图迫使私人公民、企业或政府官员提交文件或作证；委员会可以将拒绝者认定为刑事藐视国会，该罪名可处以罚款和最长12个月的监禁。国会还可以将个人移交司法部，以起诉其他罪行。然而，国会本身不能提起刑事指控。
But the power of congressional investigations has important limits. Congressional committees can issue subpoenas to try to compel private citizens, businesses or government officials to produce documents or testify; committees can cite those who refuse for criminal contempt of Congress, which is punishable by a fine and imprisonment for up to 12 months. Congress can also refer individuals to the Justice Department for prosecution of other crimes. However, it cannot bring criminal charges itself.
司法部隶属于行政部门，对于是否就移交采取行动拥有自由裁量权，并独占提起联邦刑事指控的权力。在特朗普治下，司法部背离了使刑事调查和起诉免受白宫影响的传统。
The Justice Department, which is part of the executive branch, has discretion over whether to act on a referral and holds the exclusive power to bring federal criminal charges. Under Trump, the department has departed from a tradition of insulating criminal investigations and prosecutions from White House influence.
未来政府的司法部可能会对国会委员会在特朗普任期内提出的刑事推荐采取行动。然而，在中期选举之前，特朗普表示愿意为任何受到国会调查员针对的助手提供保护性特赦。美国总统拥有对联邦罪行的特赦权。他不能对尚未发生的犯罪进行特赦，但可以对已经发生且尚未被起诉的犯罪进行特赦。总统在发布特赦时不必指明具体罪名。
It’s possible that a Justice Department under a future administration would act on criminal referrals made by congressional committees during Trump’s term. However, in advance of the midterm election, Trump expressed willingness to offer protective pardons to any aides targeted by congressional investigators. The US president has the power to pardon federal crimes. He can’t do so for an offense that has not yet been committed, but he can for one that’s been committed for which charges have not yet been brought. The president needn’t identify the crime in order to issue a pardon.
2025年，在其政府的最后时刻，时任总统乔·拜登出于担心这些人会被即将上台的特朗普政府报复，向一批家庭成员和官员颁发了保护性、全面的特赦。特朗普提到这一先例，以此为自己承诺保护助手的理由。
In 2025, in the last hours of his administration, then-President Joe Biden issued protective, blanket pardons to a host of family members and officials out of concern they’d be targeted for retaliation by the incoming Trump administration. Trump mentioned that precedent as justification for his own pledge to protect aides.
目前由民主党控制的国会可能会对特朗普进行第三次弹劾，但这并不是民主党在选举前的宣传重点。
Congress, now under control of Democrats, could pursue a third impeachment of Trump, but it was not a focus of Democrats’ messaging going into the election.
弹劾程序从众议院开始。如果众议院以简单多数通过针对总统的弹劾条款，总统即被弹劾，但尚未被免职。随后参议院进行审判。如果参议院以三分之二多数投票定罪，总统将被免职。
The impeachment process starts in the House. If the House approves articles of impeachment against the president with a simple majority, the president is impeached, though not yet removed from office. The Senate then holds a trial. If the Senate votes to convict by a two-thirds majority, the president is removed from office.
特朗普在其第一任期后半段曾两次被弹劾，此前民主党在2018年中期选举中赢得众议院控制权。2019年12月，众议院以滥用权力和妨碍国会为由弹劾特朗普。众议院指控总统将军援乌克兰与乌克兰政府展开对拜登及其子亨特的调查挂钩，拜登是总统的政治对手。2021年1月，众议院第二次弹劾特朗普，指控他与1月6日美国国会大厦袭击事件有关的煽动叛乱行为，该事件推迟了对拜登在2020年总统大选中击败特朗普的胜选认证。两次弹劾均未导致参议院定罪。
Trump was impeached twice in the second half of his first term, after Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterms. In December 2019, the House impeached him on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The House alleged that the president conditioned military aid to Ukraine on its government opening investigations into Biden, the president’s political rival, and Biden’s son Hunter. The House impeached Trump a second time in January 2021, charging him with inciting an insurrection in connection with the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol, which delayed the certification of Biden’s victory over Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Neither impeachment led to a Senate conviction.
如果民主党再次推动弹劾，他们不太可能成功将特朗普免职，因为参议院需要三分之二多数票才能定罪。
If Democrats pursue another impeachment, they’re unlikely to successfully remove Trump from office because of the Senate’s requirement of a two-thirds majority vote to secure a conviction.
无论如何，党内领导人在2026年选举竞选期间淡化了弹劾的可能性，并敦促其候选人以降低日常生活成本和减轻工薪家庭经济负担为竞选纲领。
In any case, party leaders downplayed an impeachment scenario during the 2026 election campaign and urged their candidates to run on a platform of lowering everyday living costs and easing economic burdens for working families.
在民主党控制下，参议院可以拖延或阻止特朗普的司法和行政提名人选。需要参议院确认的总统任命人员包括内阁成员、最高法院和联邦法官、大使以及政府机构和委员会负责人。
Under Democratic control, the Senate could stall or block Trump’s judicial and executive nominees. Among the presidential appointees that require Senate confirmation are cabinet members, Supreme Court and federal judges, ambassadors and the heads of government agencies and commissions.
共和党对参议院的控制使特朗普得以勉强获得一些争议人物的确认，包括皮特·赫格塞斯出任国防部长、小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪出任卫生与公众服务部长，以及卡什·帕特尔出任联邦调查局局长。其第二任期内官员更替比第一任期少，但特朗普现在填补空缺的余地将大大减少。
Republican control of the Senate enabled Trump to win confirmation — just barely — of a number of controversial figures, including Pete Hegseth as defense secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health and human services secretary, and Kash Patel as FBI director. There’s been less turnover among officials in his second administration than in his first, but Trump will now have considerably less leeway filling vacancies.
总统可以通过行政行动在无需国会批准的情况下实施重大政策变革。特朗普下令对伊朗发动军事打击，实施并取消关税，解雇联邦政府大量员工，使美国退出世界卫生组织和2015年国际气候条约《巴黎协定》，并将委内瑞拉长期总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗抓捕并引渡至美国——所有这些均无需国会立法行动。
The president can enact significant policy changes without Congress through executive action. Trump has ordered military strikes on Iran, imposed and removed tariffs, fired large swaths of the federal workforce, withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization and the 2015 international climate treaty the Paris Agreement, and seized and extracted longtime Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to the US — all without legislative action from Congress.