在接受《经济学人》专访时，阿根廷总统态度强硬 |布宜诺斯艾利斯| 8分钟阅读“我的最爱玩具，”哈维尔·米莱开玩笑说，瞥了一眼他在总统府玫瑰宫办公室里的那把金色电锯。“还有更多开支要削减，更多税收要降低，”他说，并补充称，如果明年成功连任，他将真正大干一场。他说，如果目前的改革已经“超过去100年阿根廷所有改革的总和，让我向你保证，下一轮改革方案将深远得多。”
Javier Milei’s liberal experiment is struggling In an interview with The Economist, Argentina’s president is unyielding |BUENOS AIRES|8 min read“My favourite toy,” quips Javier Milei, glancing at the golden chainsaw in his office in the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace. “There’s so much more spending to cut and so many more taxes to lower,” he says, adding that he will really let rip once re-elected next year. If the reforms so far have been “more than everything that was done in the past 100 years in Argentina combined, let me assure you the next reform package will be far deeper.”
他承诺阿根廷将以无与伦比的方式拥抱人工智能，并相信这能帮助阿根廷“在短短20年内成为像美国一样的世界领先强国”。他咧嘴一笑：“准备好迎接‘重装上阵’的米莱吧。”
He promises that Argentina will embrace artificial intelligence like no other country and believes it could help it to “become a leading world power like the United States” in just 20 years. Get ready for Milei “reloaded”, he grins.
然而，这却是一个微妙的时刻。在继承了一个糟糕透顶的经济烂摊子后，米莱已设法降低了通胀，并大幅放松了经济管制。选民在去年的中期选举中给予了回报，但如今他们告诉民调机构，自己更关心就业前景和工资，而非通胀。经济增长乏力，在总统明年10月面临选民投票前，新政策措施只有14个月的时间来交出成绩。
Yet this is a delicate moment. After inheriting a dreadful economic mess Mr Milei has managed to reduce inflation and heavily deregulate the economy. Voters rewarded this at last year’s midterm election, but today they tell pollsters that they care much more about job prospects and wages than inflation. Economic growth is spluttering, and there are only 14 months for new policy measures to deliver results before the president faces voters in October next year.
随着他个人净支持率深陷负值区间，存在这样一种风险：来自阿根廷左翼庇隆主义运动的大手大脚型对手——该运动主张干预主义国家——可能会俘获选民的想象力。米莱激励了全球自由市场拥护者的激进实验，正处于关键存亡之际。未来一年的大问题是：加倍押注——“重装上阵”的米莱——是否是赢得连任的途径。
With his personal net approval rating deeply negative, there is a risk that a big-spending rival from Argentina’s left-wing Peronist movement, which champions an interventionist state, could capture voters’ imaginations. Mr Milei’s radical experiment, which has inspired free-marketeers worldwide, hangs in the balance. The big question for the coming year is whether doubling down—Milei reloaded—is the way to win re-election.
米莱可以自夸取得了显著成就。在他于2023年12月就职前，通胀率以每月13%的速度飙升，政府支出失控，靠印钞维持。他对支出动用“电锯”，实现了财政盈余。通胀已降至每月约2%。这帮助将阿根廷贫困人口占比降低了约三分之一，降至28%。
Mr Milei can boast remarkable successes. Before he took office in December 2023 inflation was running at 13% a month and government spending was out of control, financed by printing money. He took his chainsaw to spending and delivered fiscal surpluses. Inflation has fallen, to about 2% per month. This has helped reduce the share of people living in poverty in Argentina by about a third, to 28%.
市场反应积极得多。政府一直在偿还外债，今年央行大举买入美元储备。蓬勃的石油出口让这变得更容易。米莱清理了阿根廷错综复杂的繁文缛节。“我们废除了1.7万项法规，”他说。今年早些时候，他推行了一项全面的劳工改革。
Markets are much happier. The government has been paying back foreign debt and this year the central bank has been aggressively buying dollar reserves. This is made easier by booming oil exports. Mr Milei has thinned out Argentina’s thickets of red tape. “We have got rid of 17,000 regulations,” he says. Earlier this year he passed a sweeping labour reform.
米莱依然是一名不加掩饰的技术乐观主义者。他声称，人工智能“只能带来好处，唯一可能造成的伤害是国家插手干预”。他说经济理论“证明”了这一点。他想赋予仅由人工智能运营的公司完整的法律权利。“我为什么要歧视它们？”他说——尽管赋予人工智能权力的草案法律似乎确实要求有人类参与。
Mr Milei remains an unabashed techno-optimist. AI “can only do good, the only harm that can be done is if states get in the way”, he claims. Economic theory “proves” that. He wants to give companies run only by AI full legal rights. “Why should I discriminate against them?” he says—though the draft law that empowers AI does seem to require some human involvement.
他与特朗普政府的紧密结盟也收到了成效。去年中期选举前，随着挥霍无度的庇隆主义者民调领先，阿根廷比索承受巨大压力，央行在两天内耗资超10亿美元试图阻止其暴跌。特朗普伸出援手，提供200亿美元互换额度，并由美国财政部直接购买比索。汇率企稳，帮助米莱所在政党将原本大概率的败局扭转为大胜。
His tight alignment with the Trump administration has also delivered. Before the midterms last year, with the spendthrift Peronists polling well, the Argentine peso was under such heavy pressure that the central bank spent over a billion dollars in two days trying to stop it plunging. Mr Trump came to the rescue with a $20bn swap line and direct purchases of pesos by the US Treasury. The currency stabilised, helping Mr Milei’s party turn a probable defeat into a strong win.
他在中国问题上也表现出了务实态度，中国是阿根廷巨大的贸易伙伴。赢得大选前，米莱曾将中国领导人称为“刺客”。如今他满口赞誉，“与中国合作非常愉快”。这也有了回报。上个月，中国延长了与阿根廷央行至关重要的190亿美元互换额度。米莱称中方未提出任何交换条件。
And he has shown pragmatism on China, a giant trading partner. Before winning office, Mr Milei branded the Chinese leadership “assassins”. Now he purrs that “working with the Chinese is very agreeable”. This too has paid off. Last month China extended a vital $19bn swap line with the Argentine central bank. Mr Milei says they asked for nothing in exchange.
然而，总统依然面临诸多问题。经济有望实现连续第二年增长，这在阿根廷属于罕见现象，但增速低于计划。政府原本预算今年增长5%，但经历数月收缩后，大多数分析师预计增速将接近这一数字的一半。增长集中在碳氢化合物、采矿和农业等非劳动密集型部门。制造业和建筑业等劳动密集型产业的经济活动，仍比米莱就任时低至少10%。
And yet the president has problems. The economy is on track for a second consecutive year of growth, a rarity in Argentina, but at a slower pace than planned. His government had budgeted for 5% growth this year, but after several months of contraction most analysts expect nearer half that. Growth is concentrated in sectors such as hydrocarbons, mining and agriculture, which are not labour-intensive. Economic activity in industries that are more so, such as manufacturing and construction, is still at least 10% lower than when Mr Milei took office.
部分原因在于，米莱正让阿根廷受保护的工厂面临外国竞争。这虽合情理，但转型过程痛苦。“这仿佛我们在为自我毁灭买单，”阿根廷工业协会负责人马丁·拉帕利尼表示，他呼吁进行全面税制改革，而米莱甚至未曾尝试。
In part, this is because Mr Milei is exposing Argentina’s protected factories to foreign competition. That is sensible, but the transition is painful. “It’s as if we are financing our own self-destruction,” says Martín Rapallini, the head of the Argentine industrial association, who pleads for a sweeping tax overhaul that Mr Milei has not even attempted.
结果是，正式私营部门就业岗位比2023年减少了23万个，降幅3.6%。米莱自夸裁减了8.6万个公共部门岗位。失业率仅上升了两个百分点，因为低收入小承包商税收计划下的申报人数大幅增加，非正规就业也激增。“这依然是工作，”米莱反驳道。薪资是另一隐忧。正式私营部门薪资仍低于米莱就任时水平（见图表1）。公共部门薪资大幅下降，米莱对此颇为得意。
The result is 230,000 fewer formal private-sector jobs than in 2023, a decline of 3.6%. Mr Milei boasts of cutting 86,000 posts in the public sector. The unemployment rate has only gone up by two percentage points because filings under a tax scheme for small contractors with low incomes have grown sharply. So has informal work. “It still is work,” retorts Mr Milei. Salaries are another worry. In the formal private sector they are still below what they were when Mr Milei took office (see chart 1). In the public sector they are dramatically lower, a fact Mr Milei celebrates.
许多阿根廷人正在挣扎。近600万人债务逾期超过90天。高企且波动的利率无益于缓解。为抗击通胀，央行维持货币供应紧缩并干预以支撑比索汇率。但这损害增长，因为限制了放贷。同时也拖累制造业，因进口变得更便宜、出口更昂贵。米莱聚焦通胀，干脆否认其举措对增长带来任何代价。
Many Argentinians are struggling. Nearly 6m people are more than 90 days behind on debt payments. High and volatile interest rates do not help. To fight inflation the central bank has kept the money supply tight and intervened to keep the peso strong. But this hurts growth because it limits lending. It also weighs on manufacturing by making imports cheaper and exports expensive. Mr Milei, focused on inflation, simply denies that his efforts come with any costs at all for growth.
这种单一的关注点可能会削弱选举回报。米莱就职时，选民将通胀列为头号问题，且遥遥领先。如今通胀已降至第八位；缺乏就业和低工资跃居榜首。选民对其政府一系列腐败丑闻也颇为不满。他的净支持率接近负30（见图表2）。
This single-minded focus risks diminishing electoral returns. When Mr Milei took office voters ranked inflation as their top problem by far. It now ranks eighth; lack of jobs and low wages top the list. Voters are also unimpressed by a series of corruption scandals in his government. His net approval rating is nearly minus 30 (see chart 2).
这似乎正在激怒米莱。他对阿根廷记者质疑其经济成就、报道涉嫌腐败一事勃然大怒。“人渣”是他最爱用来骂他们的侮辱性词汇。他有时一天多次在社交媒体上攻击新闻界。在《经济学人》专访的开场提问关于经济问题时，他的回答包含了对“真正可耻”的阿根廷新闻界及其“令人毛骨悚然”的谎言的攻击。他的盟友担心他的攻击性正在疏远选民。“我不能为这辩护，我也不这么做，”他所在政党的资深参议员帕特里夏·布里奇说。
This seems to be irritating Mr Milei. He is furious at Argentine journalists for questioning his economic achievements and writing about alleged corruption. “HUMAN SHIT” is his favourite insult for them. He sometimes attacks the press multiple times a day on social media. When asked about economics in the opening question of The Economist’s interview, his reply included attacks on the “truly shameful” Argentine press and their “blood-curdling” lies. His allies worry his aggression is turning off voters. “I don’t justify it, I don’t do it,” says Patricia Bullrich, a leading senator for his party.
面对国内困境，总统似乎越来越倾向于外交事务。上任以来，他已访问美国约17次、以色列3次，但仍未踏足阿根廷23个省份中的8个。然而，出行似乎并未让米莱感到轻松。在邻国巴西，他在右翼总统候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗的竞选集会上，将现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（即卢拉）称为“小偷”和“罪犯”。
With difficulties at home, the president appears ever more tempted by foreign affairs. Since taking office he has visited the United States around 17 times and Israel thrice, but still has not visited eight of Argentina’s 23 provinces. Yet travel does not seem relaxing for Mr Milei. In neighbouring Brazil, at a campaign rally for Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing contender in its presidential election, he referred to the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, as a “thief” and “convict”.
作为阿根廷最大贸易伙伴的巴西，随即召回了驻阿大使。米莱毫不悔改。“共产主义者卢拉”已“用21世纪社会主义污染了整个大陆”，他说。9月3日，他在全国电视讲话中升级了关于阿根廷对马尔维纳斯群岛（即福克兰群岛）主权主张的言辞。这看起来像是一个粗糙的争取支持的举动。
Brazil, Argentina’s biggest trade partner, withdrew its ambassador in response. Mr Milei is unrepentant. “The communist Lula” has “contaminated the whole continent with 21st-century socialism”, he says. On September 3rd in an announcement on national TV he ramped up his rhetoric on Argentina’s claims to the Falklands Islands. That looks like a crude effort to rally support.
工作担忧和民调下滑会不会促使他在大选前做出改变？“我不会仅仅为了选举结果就停止做正确的事，”他说。“如果阿根廷人民决定因为我坚守信念而背弃自由模式……那取决于阿根廷人民。”米莱的信念成就了他大部分的成功，但如果没有第二个任期，他将无法实现持久改革。
Might job worries and sagging polls prompt changes ahead of the elections? “I won’t stop doing what is right just for the sake of an election result,” he says. “If the Argentine people decide to turn their back on the model of freedom because I have remained true to my convictions…well that’s up to the Argentine people.”Mr Milei’s convictions are behind much of his success, but he will be unable to achieve lasting reform without a second term.
他坚称核心政策很快会提振增长和工资。尽管如此，他的政府最近还是做出了一些似乎特别有利于增长的小幅调整：允许利率略微下降，动用国家养老基金帮助银行降低抵押贷款利率，并允许银行增加美元贷款而非比索贷款。米莱说，他只是在“解除限制”。无论叫什么名字，如果这能带来更高工资和更多就业，选民会欢迎更多此类举措。
He insists that his core policies will soon boost growth and wages. Still, his government has recently made several small changes that seem particularly growth-friendly: allowing interest rates to fall a little, using the state pension fund to help banks to lower mortgage rates, and allowing banks to lend more in dollars rather than pesos. Mr Milei says he is merely “releasing restrictions”. Whatever it is called, if it delivers better wages and more jobs voters would like more of it.
米莱的救星可能是他的对手。主要挑战者很可能是阿克塞尔·基西洛夫，这位布宜诺斯艾利斯省的庇隆派省长。作为一名深陷过去过度开支争议的前财政部长，他的净支持率与米莱一样糟糕。基西洛夫坚称目前他不是候选人，但仍竭力强调米莱的经济困境。然而，他自己的非正统经济学让市场恐慌、吓退许多选民。他不承认通胀的主要原因是印钞。相反，他说情况“非常复杂”。
Mr Milei’s saving grace may be his rivals. The leading challenger is probably Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province. A former finance minister deeply associated with past spending excesses, his net approval rating is as bad as Mr Milei’s. Mr Kicillof insists that right now he is not a candidate, but is still at pains to highlight Mr Milei’s economic woes. Yet his own unorthodox economics terrify markets and scare many voters. He does not accept that the main cause of inflation has been money-printing. Instead, he says, it’s “very complex”.
庇隆派内部也存在分裂。上次败给米莱的塞尔吉奥·马萨可能再次参选。激进众议员胡安·格拉博伊斯也可能参选。他承诺通过大幅提高对富人的税收来资助社会正义。“你不必怕阿克塞尔[基西洛夫]，”他冷笑道，“你得怕我，得怕米里亚姆·布雷格曼。”她是一位高调的托洛茨基主义者，立场甚至在庇隆派左侧。引人注目的是，她的支持率远高于基西洛夫和米莱。
The Peronists are also divided. Sergio Massa, who lost to Mr Milei last time, may try again. Juan Grabois, a firebrand congressman, may run, too. He promises social justice financed by dramatically higher taxes on the rich. “You don’t have to fear Axel [Kicillof],” he chuckles, “you have to fear me, you have to fear Myriam Bregman.”She is a high-profile Trotskyite, to the left of even the Peronists. Strikingly, her approval rating is much better than Mr Kicillof’s and Mr Milei’s.
由于主要竞争者都极不受欢迎，许多其他人也在考虑参选。中右翼前财政部长埃尔南·拉昆萨主张米莱式的经济政策，却没有脏话连篇。省长和五旬节派电视布道者也在伺机而动。米莱仍是热门人选。但随着经济陷入停滞，局势看起来令人不安地胶着。
With the main contenders so disliked, many others are also eyeing a run. Hernán Lacunza, a centre-right former finance minister, offers Milei-style economics without the swearing. Provincial governors and Pentecostal television pastors are sniffing around. Mr Milei is still the favourite. But while the economy splutters, it looks uncomfortably tight.
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