副总统 J.D. 万斯在白宫接替唐纳德·特朗普总统的几率，在共和党遭遇灾难性的中期选举结果后，在预测市场中大幅下跌；与此同时，佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（共和党）在公开与总统决裂后，支持率大幅飙升。
Vice President JD Vance’s chances of succeeding President Donald Trump in the White House have plunged in prediction markets following the GOP’s disastrous midterm election results, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) enjoyed a dramatic surge after publicly breaking with the president.
根据博彩平台 Kalshi 的数据，万斯获得 2028 年共和党总统提名的几率从周二的 35% 跌至周三的 27%。
Vance’s odds of securing the 2028 Republican presidential nomination fell from 35% on Tuesday to 27% on Wednesday, according to figures from betting platform Kalshi.
与此同时，德桑蒂斯的几率从仅 5% 跃升至 17%，在不到 24 小时内翻了两倍多。
Meanwhile, DeSantis jumped from just 5% to 17%, more than tripling his share in less than 24 hours.
这位副总统在总统选举市场中也遭遇了陡峭下跌，几率从 19% 跌至 12%，而德桑蒂斯则从 2.7% 升至 6%。
The vice president also suffered a steep decline in the market for the presidency itself, dropping from 19% to 12%, while DeSantis climbed from 2.7% to 6%.
这些数字是交易活动的快照，而非传统民意调查，价格会随着交易者买卖合约而波动。
The figures are snapshots of trading activity rather than conventional opinion polls, with prices fluctuating as traders buy and sell contracts.
这一剧变发生在周二的中期选举中民主党取得全面胜利之后，共和党失去了对众议院和参议院的控制权，给特朗普的第二任期议程造成重大挫折。
The shake-up followed sweeping Democratic victories in Tuesday’s midterms, which saw Republicans lose control of both the House and Senate, delivering a major setback to Trump’s second-term agenda.
德桑蒂斯在投票开始前几小时及时与特朗普划清界限，批评总统对伊朗战争、汽油价格上涨和移民执法的处理是“煤气灯效应”（注：指通过心理操纵使人怀疑自身感知）。他在接受斯蒂芬·A·史密斯的《Straight Shooter》播客采访时警告说，共和党候选人面临艰难的选战。
DeSantis had distanced himself from Trump in a timely jump just hours before polls opened, criticizing the president’s handling of the Iran war, rising gasoline prices and immigration enforcement as “gaslighting.”Speaking to Stephen A. Smith on his Straight Shooter podcast, the outgoing Florida governor warned that Republican candidates faced a difficult election.
“民调显示民主党可能会大幅获益，这些数字与共和党竞选团队、共和党委员会目前获得的数字是一样的，”他说。
“The polls you’re seeing that show the Democrats making potentially big gains, those numbers are the same that Republican campaigns are getting right now, Republican committees,” he said.
“我们的候选人正在逆风前行，”德桑蒂斯补充道。“而民主党拥有更大的势头。” 这场动荡还波及到了民主党总统候选人阵营，参议员乔恩·奥索夫（民主党-佐治亚州）的支持率超过了加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森和众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）。
“Our candidates are running into the wind on that,” DeSantis added. “And the Democrats have more momentum.”The upheaval extended to the Democratic presidential field, where Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) surged past California Governor Gavin Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
奥索夫的民主党提名胜算从周二的17%升至周三的22%，领先于两位对手，后两人的支持率均徘徊在14%。
Ossoff’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination climbed from 17% on Tuesday to 22% on Wednesday, putting him ahead of both rivals, who were hovering at 14%.
这位参议员曾被评论人士讨论为2028年总统潜在竞选人选，他于周二在佐治亚州赢得第二个任期，击败了特朗普支持的共和党人迈克·柯林斯。特朗普在2024年以微弱优势拿下该州。
The senator, who has been discussed by pundits as a potential 2028 presidential contender, secured a second term Tuesday, defeating Trump-backed Republican Mike Collins in Georgia, a state Trump narrowly carried in 2024.
奥索夫在胜选演讲中宣称：“美国人民已经谴责了失败的跛脚鸭总统唐纳德·J·特朗普的堕落、腐败和无能。”
In his victory speech, Ossoff declared: “The American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption, and incompetence of the failed lame duck president Donald J. Trump.”
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