变革尚未完全到来。唐纳德·特朗普已两次轰炸伊朗（且仍在继续），击毙一名伊朗最高领袖，绑架一名委内瑞拉总统（其合法性存疑），并向世界大部分地区发动贸易战，践踏了一个基本顺从的共和党控制的国会。共和党在11月3日周二的中期选举中遭遇历史性惨败，极不可能让他偏离既定道路。
hange is not quite here yet. Donald Trump has already bombed Iran twice (and counting), killed an Iranian supreme leader, kidnapped a Venezuelan president (whose legitimacy was questionable), and launched trade wars against much of the world, trampling over a Republican-controlled Congress that was largely compliant. There is little chance that the historic defeat Republicans suffered in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, will divert him from his chosen path.
然而，变革在美国已然开始。这些中期选举削弱了那位主导美国政治十余年之久的人物的统治地位。2016年、2020年和2024年的总统大选，均将七十多岁、甚至高龄的男性送入白宫。如今，民主党和共和党都面临着一个迫切的更新需求，这远不止于引入年轻一代那么简单。
Yet, change has already begun in the United States. These midterms diminish the dominance of the figure who has dominated American politics for more than a decade. The presidential elections of 2016, 2020 and 2024 had all brought men in their seventies, some well into them, to the White House. Now, both Democrats and Republicans face an urgent need for renewal, one that goes far beyond simply bringing in a younger generation.
民主党清楚，他们在11月3日并非真正获胜，而是特朗普失利，且本党形象几乎与税务机关一样糟糕。民主党2024年竞选活动因乔·拜登的固执及其核心圈子拒绝承认其过时而受阻，这是第一次错失良机。拒绝审视前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯败选原因，则是第二次。
Democrats know that they did not so much win on November 3 as Trump lost, and that their party's own image is nearly as dismal as that of the tax authorities. The Democratic Party's hobbled 2024 campaign, stymied by Joe Biden's stubbornness and his inner circle's refusal to acknowledge his obsolescence, was the first missed opportunity. The refusal to examine the reasons behind former vice president Kamala Harris's defeat was the second.
混乱 下一次总统初选将是十年来首次不被特朗普的无所不在所吞噬的初选。民主党将需要阐述其对国家及其世界角色的愿景。这些问题的答案将塑造民主党阵营代表人物的选择。
Disarray The next presidential primary will be the first in a decade not to be swallowed up by Trump's omnipresence. Democrats will need to set out their vision for the country and its role in the world. The answers to these questions will shape the choice of the person who will embody the Democratic camp.
自2016年总统初选中，建制派候选人希拉里·克林顿与佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯展开角逐以来，民主党常被简化为左翼派系——在比尔·克林顿（1993-2001年执政）和巴拉克·奥巴马（2009-2017年执政）总统任内基本被边缘化——与被描绘为较为温和的派系之间的斗争。欧洲对外关系委员会（ECFR）在中期选举前发布的一份报告，提出了一个更细致的划分：“革命派”、“革新派”和“复兴派”。
Since the contest between establishment candidate Hillary Clinton and independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the 2016 presidential primary, the Democratic Party had often been reduced to a struggle between a left-wing faction – largely sidelined under the presidencies of Bill Clinton (1993-2001) and Barack Obama (2009-2017) – and the wing presented as more moderate. A report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) published ahead of the midterm elections suggested a more nuanced breakdown among "revolutionaries," "renovators" and "revivalists."
第一派想要掀翻桌子，第二派想要修好摇晃的桌腿，第三派则认为，只要清理掉特朗普留在桌面上的混乱，桌子自然会恢复平衡。
The first wants to overturn the table, the second wants to fix its wobbly legs, and the third believes it will naturally regain balance by clearing away the disorder Trump left on it.