美国科技巨头股价周三领涨大盘，投资者押注民主党控制的国会将减缓正在吞噬自由现金流的大规模人工智能支出。
The shares of US technology giants led the market higher on Wednesday as investors bet that a Democrat-controlled Congress will slow the massive spending on artificial intelligence that’s eating up free cash flow.
Amazon.com Inc. (亚马逊) 涨幅一度达 8.3%，Microsoft Corp. (微软) 上涨 7%，Alphabet Inc. (Alphabet) 跃升 5.9%，Meta Platforms Inc. (Meta) 上扬 3.6%。连同避免了大规模 AI 支出、股价飙升逾 6% 的 Apple Inc. (苹果) 在内，这五大科技巨头周三有望合计增加近 1 万亿美元市值。
Amazon.com Inc. was up as much as 8.3%, Microsoft Corp. gained 7%, Alphabet Inc. jumped 5.9% and Meta Platforms Inc. advanced 3.6%. Together with Apple Inc., which has avoided heavy AI spending and leaped more than 6%, the five tech behemoths are on pace to add nearly $1 trillion in market value on Wednesday.
民主党在周二的选举中夺得众参两院多数席位，在包括南卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州在内的共和党大本营翻转席位，并赢得下层选票，控制了众多州议会和州长官邸。该党候选人大力主张放缓 AI 发展，特别是遏制运行这项新兴技术所需的大规模数据中心建设。
Democrats secured majorities in both the House and Senate in Tuesday’s election, flipping seats in Republican bastions including South Carolina, Texas and Kansas, and winning down-ballot votes as well to secure control of numerous statehouses and governors’ mansions. The party’s candidates ran heavily on slowing down AI development, in particular checking the mass construction of data centers required to run the burgeoning technology.
“市场表现得好像这标志着 AI 扩建的结束，” Dakota Wealth Management 高级投资组合经理 Robert Pavlik 说。“如果这意味着超大规模公司不再花费巨资建设算力，意味着它们可能重新实现现金流为正。” UBS 全球宏观股票策略及美国股票策略研究主管 Keith Parker 周三在致客户的报告中写道，出口民调显示选民强烈反对在其社区建设新数据中心。“这股蓝色浪潮将对股市产生影响，短期内最大冲击可能来自州一级数据中心监管的加强，” 他写道。
“The market is acting like this represents the end of the AI buildout,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management. “If that means the hyperscalers aren’t spending ridiculous amounts of money to build out compute, that means they could become cash-flow positive again.”Exit polls showed that voters strongly oppose new data centers in their communities, Keith Parker, UBS’s head of global macro equity strategy and US equity strategy research, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “The blue wave will have implications for equities, with the biggest impact likely coming from an increase in data center regulation at the state level near-term,” he wrote.
亚马逊、微软、Alphabet和Meta的股价近期承压，原因是投资者日益担忧，这些公司在计算基础设施上投入的数千亿美元无法产生足够的回报。与此同时，亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta的自由现金流均已转为负值，这意味着它们的资本支出超过了运营所产生的现金。因此，这些公司被迫借助债券和股票市场为其支出融资。
Shares of Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta have been under pressure recently as investors grow increasingly concerned that the hundreds of billions of dollars they’re spending on computing infrastructure won’t generate sufficient returns. Meanwhile, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta have all seen their free cash flows turn negative, meaning they’re spending more on capital expenditures than they’re generating from their operations. As a result, the firms are being forced to use the debt and equity markets to fund their spending.
截至周二，彭博追踪“科技七巨头”的指数自Meta于10月21日拉开所谓超大规模云服务商财报季序幕以来已下跌5.9%，使该组合今年迄今仅上涨4.1%，落后于标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数。周三该组合一度上涨3.6%，有望创下自9月21日以来的最佳单日表现，尽管英伟达和特斯拉股价下跌。英伟达是数据中心建设热潮的最大受益者。
Through Tuesday, a Bloomberg index tracking the Magnificent Seven tech giants had lost 5.9% since Meta kicked off earnings season for the so-called hyperscalers on Oct. 21, leaving the group up just 4.1% for the year and trailing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes. The group was up as much as 3.6% on Wednesday and headed for its best day since Sept. 21, despite declines by Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker that has been the biggest beneficiary of the data center buildout, and Tesla Inc..
帕夫利克表示，尽管周三的交易投机性很强，但它凸显了自由现金流对投资者而言已变得多么重要。
While Wednesday’s trading was highly speculative, it highlights how important free cash flow has become to investors, Pavlik said.
“超大规模云服务商此前一直进退两难：它们因支出而受到惩罚，但缩减支出同样会引发质疑，”他说。“从某种意义上说，大选对超大规模云服务商来说是一份礼物——刹住它们支出步伐的不是企业自己，而是政府。”
“Hyperscalers had been stuck between a rock and a hard place, where they were getting punished for spending, but pulling back would have also raised questions,” he said. “In a sense, the election is a gift to hyperscalers — the brakes are being applied to their spending, not by the companies, but by the government.”