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鲍文:特朗普的挫败限制其国内权力,但在国外情况可能不同Bowen: Trump's loss limits powers at home, but it will likely be different abroad

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周三,特朗普在白宫对记者发表讲话,当时东翼宴会厅的建设接近完工。他头戴一顶正面印有“USA”字样的白色棒球帽,西装外套上别着一枚美国国旗徽章,身穿白衬衫,系着红色领带。Trump wears a white baseball cap with the letters 'USA' on the front and US flag lapel on his suit jacket, with a white shirt and red tie, while he speaks to reporters at the White House on Wednesday as construction of the East Wing ballroom nears completion.

BBC国际编辑写道,在中期选举受挫后,特朗普总统会希望展示他仍能撼动世界。

After bruising midterm results, President Trump will want to show he can still shake the world, the BBC's international editor writes.

杰里米·鲍文 唐纳德·特朗普惯用最高级词汇,因此,美国绝大多数选民让他遭遇惨败,这一失败规模之大本身就带有政治因果。

By Jeremy Bowen Donald Trump deals in superlatives, so there is political karma in the sheer size of the defeat handed to him by a big majority of the voters of America.

但不要指望他会温和地步入其政治生涯的暮色。失去美国国会两院的控制权,限制了他国内发号施令、纵横捭阖和制造混乱的能力。在国外,情况可能有所不同。

But do not expect him to go gentle into the political twilight of his career. Losing both houses of the US Congress limits his capacity to dictate, manoeuvre and disrupt at home. Abroad it is likely to be different.

作为美国总统和武装部队总司令,他仍拥有动用美国军事力量的广泛权力。

As president of the United States and commander-in-chief of its armed forces he retains broad powers to use America's military might.

预测唐纳德·特朗普的行动和摇摆并不容易。作为总统,他已将政策急转弯变成武器。不过,有些事情是不变的。

It is not easy to predict the actions and oscillations of Donald Trump. As president, he has turned policy u-turns into weapons. Some things, though, are constants.

其中之一是他对那些被他视为失败者的蔑视,以及他绝不被视为失败者的决心。

One is his contempt for those he regards as losers, and his determination never to be seen as one.

总统或许会忍不住通过在海外采取行动来掩盖中期选举的惨败。他可能会尝试采取一些行动,以便能夸耀这是一位强势总统果断而胜利的举措,并未因一场选举而削弱——尽管有种种证据,他仍坚称这场选举之所以失败,只是因为他没有出现在选票上。

The president might be tempted to blot out the electoral rout of the midterms by taking actions abroad. He might try to make moves that he can boast about as the decisive and victorious moves of a strong president, undiminished by an election that he insists, despite all the evidence, that was only lost because he was not on the ballot paper.

伊朗战争 在中期选举前的几周里,美军部署以及特朗普本人往往好斗的言论,加剧了有关美国正准备重返对伊朗战争的议论。选举前夕,美国对海湾地区一座伊朗岛屿实施了有限空袭。

The Iran war In the weeks leading up to the midterms the deployment of US forces and Trump's own, often belligerent, statements ramped up talk that the US was getting ready to go back to war with Iran. On the eve of the elections, the US carried out a limited bombing raid on an Iranian island in the Gulf.

在因中风住院之前,美国民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲参加了一场关于重启对伊朗战争的潜在军事选项的机密简报会。

Before he was hospitalised with a stroke, the US Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat, went to a classified briefing about potential military options for renewed war with Iran.

他没有透露细节,但谴责这些计划“疯狂”,并警告说它们将引发“毁灭性升级”。一直有猜测称,美国人有轰炸民用基础设施的计划。

Without going into detail, he condemned the plans as "insane", warning that they would trigger a "devastating escalation". There has been speculation that the Americans have plans to bomb civilian infrastructure.

这不仅很可能构成战争罪,还可能招致伊朗对美国在海湾地区盟友的同等目标发动毁灭性打击。其潜在目标清单可能从阿拉伯联合酋长国开始,该国与以色列和美国的关系同样密切。

Not only would that be likely to constitute a war crime, it might also be answered by devastating Iranian strikes on equivalent targets on US allies in the Gulf. Its list of potential targets could start with the United Arab Emirates, which is as close to Israel as it is to the US.

德黑兰政权密切关注美国的政治动向。它毫不掩饰自己的满意之情:其封锁霍尔木兹海峡的后果已成为美国国内的政治议题。

The regime in Tehran watches political developments in the US closely. It has not concealed its satisfaction that the consequences of its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have become a domestic political issue in the US.

德黑兰清楚,战争及其对霍尔木兹海峡航运的袭击导致万物价格(从汽油、柴油到农用化肥)持续上涨,这给特朗普和共和党人造成了损害。

Tehran is aware of the damage caused to Trump and the Republicans by the sustained rise in the prices of everything (from petrol and diesel to agricultural fertilisers) caused by the war and its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文警告。

The Speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted a warning on social media.

他说:“凭良心还是顾及生活成本,美国人说了‘不’对战争,我们赞同这一信息。如果美国政府背叛其公众意愿,去服务于国际金主和敲诈者,它将会明白我们的‘不’伴随着一场噩梦。”本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在上周以色列大选后现担任看守总理,正竭力组建新政府,他一再表示想要推翻德黑兰的伊斯兰政权。以色列和美国的报道称,他正推动特朗普重返战争。内塔尼亚胡没有足够的席位与其即将卸任的联盟组建新政府。

He said: "Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message. If the US govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare." Benjamin Netanyahu, now acting prime minister of Israel after its election last week, and manoeuvring hard to form a new government, has repeated that he wants to bring down the Islamic regime in Tehran. Reports in Israel and the US say that he is pushing Trump to go back to war. Netanyahu does not have the seats to form a new government with his outgoing coalition.

但如果一场大规模战争重新爆发并持续下去,如果以色列人遭到直接攻击,他可能会有新的选择,即组建一个团结政府,而他将运用自己相当可观的政治手腕来主导这个政府。

But if a major war restarted and was sustained, and if Israelis came under direct fire, he could have new options of forming a unity government that he would use his considerable political skills to dominate.

直播:追踪反应:特朗普承认民主党在选举中做得“很好” 分析:民主党在历史性之夜深入特朗普腹地 指南:什么是美国中期选举?

LIVE: Follow REACTION: Trump accepts Democrats did a 'good job' in election ANALYSIS: Democrats push deep into Trump heartland on historic night GUIDE: What are the US midterms?

乌克兰战争 特朗普可能将注意力转向的另一场重大冲突是乌克兰与俄罗斯之间的战争,这场战争至今持续的时间已超过第一次世界大战。

War in Ukraine The other major conflict to which Trump might turn his attention is between Ukraine and Russia, which has now lasted longer than the First World War.

选举前,他取消了对莫斯科的制裁,以购买俄罗斯柴油。他可能会决定延长并深化制裁豁免,希望以某种方式减轻美国消费者面临的经济压力。

Before the elections he dropped sanctions against Moscow to buy Russian diesel. He might decide to prolong and deepen sanctions relief in the hope of somehow easing the economic pressure on American consumers.

他并未明显关注乌克兰平民所承受的致命压力——这些平民成为俄罗斯弹道导弹的目标,而如今导弹命中数量更多,因为乌克兰请求欧洲盟友出资购买更多美制拦截弹的呼吁,并未得到乌克兰所需要和期望的回应。

He has not been noticeably concerned about the deadly pressures on Ukrainian civilians who have been targeted by Russian ballistic missiles, now getting through in greater numbers because Ukraine's appeals for more US-made interceptors, funded by European allies, have not been answered in the way Ukraine needs and wants.

2026年9月22日,在纽约举行的第81届联合国大会期间,乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基(左)在与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的双边会晤中注视前方。Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) looks on during a bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York, on September 22, 2026.

克里姆林宫发言人表示,俄罗斯希望选举结果不会影响他所谓的特朗普的“和平努力”。

The Kremlin spokesman said Russia hoped that the election results would not impact what it called Trump's "peace-making efforts".

唐纳德·特朗普一直试图迫使乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基向俄罗斯做出领土让步,以达成一项对基辅而言等同于投降的协议。

Donald Trump has consistently tried to force Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky into making territorial concessions to Russia to produce an agreement that would amount to capitulation for Kyiv.

特朗普会把它加入他那份 improbably 的已解决和已停止的战争清单。

Trump would add it to his improbable list of wars solved and stopped.

因选举失利而恼火的特朗普,可能会试图加倍向泽连斯基施压,迫其接受他屡次拒绝的让步。

Smarting from electoral defeat, Trump might attempt to redouble pressure on Zelensky to accept the concessions that he has repeatedly rejected.

可以肯定地说,唐纳德·特朗普将继续在华盛顿特区为自己建造纪念碑。

It is safe to say Donald Trump will continue building monuments to himself in Washington DC.

除此之外,值得重申的是,对他接下来在国内和国外举动的预测很可能是错误的。但可以肯定的是,他不会坐在总统摇椅上,在白宫消磨时光。

Beyond that, it is worth repeating that predictions of his next moves at home and abroad risk being wrong. But it is certain that he is not going to sit in a presidential rocking-chair and wait out his time in the White House.

在担任总统期间,唐纳德·特朗普一直享受权力,并决心加以运用。这一点不会改变,而且他很有可能想表明:如果他不能再撼动美国,他也能撼动世界。

Throughout his time as president, Donald Trump has relished his power and been determined to use it. That is not going to change, and there is every chance that he wants to show that if he can no longer shake America, he can shake the world.

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