美国第47任总统、共和党人唐纳德·特朗普失去了国会两院的控制权。但他几乎没有表现出要从伊朗战争中退缩的迹象。特朗普将共和党的败选归咎于自己不在选票上，他写道：“我不在选票上”。他还发布了一张红色帽子的图片，上面只有一个词“VETO”（否决），暗示他已准备好与即将由民主党控制的国会对抗。来看看五位在中期选举受挫后一年内发动或扩大军事行动的美国总统，以及他们的政党在国会遭遇的失利。
Donald Trump, the 47th US president and a Republican, has lost both chambers of Congress. But he is showing little sign of backing off the Iran war. Trump blamed the Republican defeat on his absence from the ballot, writing “I wasn’t on the Ballot”. He also posted an image of a red cap with one word, “VETO”, signalling that he is ready to take on the incoming Democratic-controlled Congress.A look at five US presidents who launched or expanded military operations within a year of midterm setbacks, alongside the losses their parties suffered in CongressHistory suggests a defeat at the polls rarely slows a president down.
历史表明，选举失利很少能让总统放慢脚步。特朗普并非第一个在国内受挫却在海外继续作战的总统。许多总统都在中期选举失利后一年内发动或扩大了军事行动。以美国第40任总统、共和党人罗纳德·里根为例，他在1982年11月的中期选举中遭遇挫折。不到一年后，即1983年10月25日，里根在“紧急暴怒行动”中向加勒比海岛国格林纳达派遣了近1900名美军。
Trump is not the first to lose at home and keep fighting abroad. Many have launched or expanded military action within a year of a midterm loss. Take Ronald Reagan, the 40th US president and a Republican, who faced a setback in the November 1982 midterms. Less than a year later, on October 25, 1983, Reagan sent nearly 1,900 American troops into the Caribbean island of Grenada under Operation Urgent Fury.
他告诉国会，目标是“恢复秩序并保护岛上美国人的生命”。美国第41任总统、共和党人乔治·H·W·布什也在1990年遭遇中期选举挫折。当年8月伊拉克入侵科威特后，海湾危机已经爆发，布什在选举前已向沙特阿拉伯部署了美军。但美国主导的对伊拉克军事进攻“沙漠风暴行动”于1991年1月17日开始。美国第42任总统、民主党人比尔·克林顿在1994年中期选举中遭遇了更大的失败。
He told Congress the aim was to “restore order and protect the lives of Americans” on the island. George HW Bush, the 41st US president and a Republican, also faced a midterm setback in 1990. The Gulf crisis was already underway after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August, and Bush had deployed American troops to Saudi Arabia before the election. But the US-led military offensive against Iraq, Operation Desert Storm, began on January 17, 1991. Bill Clinton, the 42nd US president and a Democrat, suffered a much bigger defeat in the 1994 midterms.
他的政党落败，将国会两院的控制权拱手让给共和党。不到一年后，即1995年8月30日，北约发动了“审慎力量行动”，对波斯尼亚塞族军事阵地进行大规模空袭。乔治·W·布什的反应更为直接。2006年中期选举共和党失去两院后，布什于2007年1月宣布向伊拉克增兵。
His party lost and handed Republicans control of both chambers. Less than a year later, on August 30, 1995, NATO launched Operation Deliberate Force, a major air campaign against Bosnian Serb military positions. George W. Bush’s response was more direct. After Republicans lost both chambers in the 2006 midterms, Bush announced a surge of troops in Iraq in January 2007.
布什在1月10日向全国发表的讲话中说：“我已向伊拉克增派了超过2万名美军。”美国第44任总统、民主党人巴拉克·奥巴马在2010年中期选举中遭遇重大挫折，民主党在众议院失去63个席位，在参议院失去6个席位。四个月后，即2011年3月19日，奥巴马授权美军对利比亚发动军事打击，作为联合国安理会决议支持的国际干预行动的一部分。
In his January 10 address to the nation, Bush said, “I’ve committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq.”Barack Obama, the 44th US president and a Democrat, faced a major setback in the 2010 midterms, when Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. Four months later, on March 19, 2011, Obama authorised US military strikes in Libya as part of an international intervention backed by a UN Security Council resolution.
同年6月，他还宣布逐步撤出驻阿富汗美军，可谓武力与撤退并用。特朗普的第一个任期则提供了不同的例子。共和党在2018年中期选举中失去41个众议院席位，不过增加了两个参议院席位。六周后，即12月19日，特朗普宣布从叙利亚撤军，称“伊斯兰国已被击败”。这些记录好坏参半，但倾向一个方向。在六个案例中的四个里，总统在败选后一年内发动或扩大了军事行动。
In June that year, he also announced a gradual drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan, a mix of force and retreat. Trump’s first term offers a different example. Republicans lost 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms, although they gained two Senate seats. Six weeks later, on December 19, Trump announced a US troop withdrawal from Syria, saying “ISIS had been defeated.”The record is mixed, but it leans one way. In four of the six cases, the president launched or widened military action within a year of the defeat.
奥巴马两者都做了。只有特朗普在其第一个任期内单纯选择了收缩。但就目前而言，布什是最接近的参照：一位第二任期的共和党总统，其战争可以说不得人心，却选择了升级。特朗普如今在其第二个任期面临类似的考验。随着民主党人定于2027年1月接管，他们将拥有更大权力调查他的伊朗政策、举行听证会并审查军事拨款。
Obama did both. Only Trump simply pulled back in his first term. But for now, Bush is the closest parallel: a second-term Republican president with an arguably unpopular war who chose to escalate. Trump now faces a similar test in his second term. With Democrats set to take charge in January 2027, they will have greater power to investigate his Iran policy, hold hearings, and scrutinise military funding.
然而，特朗普仍保有否决权，而国会只有在两院均达到三分之二多数的情况下才能推翻否决。- 完
Trump retains his veto power, however, and Congress can override it only with a two-thirds majority in both chambers.- Ends