在中期选举前夕，这场选举以对其政治风格的明确否决而告终，即使是唐纳德·特朗普似乎也意识到，美以关系已成为一种政治累赘。
On the eve of a midterm election that ended in an unequivocal rejection of his brand of politics, even Donald Trump seemed to recognize that the US-Israel relationship had become a political liability.
特朗普在选举当天上午临阵磨枪般提出，将在年底前削减对以色列的军事援助，因为正如他所说，“他们不需要了”，这一建议遭到各方谴责——亲巴勒斯坦倡导者将其斥为“绝望之举”，亲以色列人士则斥为“不严肃”。
Trump’s 11th-hour suggestion, on election morning, that he would cut military aid to Israel at the end of the year because, as he put it, “they don’t need it”, was condemned across the board – with pro-Palestinian advocates dismissing it as “desperate” and pro-Israel ones as “unserious”.
特朗普建议用军售取代每年近40亿美元的军事援助，这表明实际上几乎不会有变化——资金将继续流入，只是更难追踪。但这仍然是总统的一个显著认知：在最新一轮加沙战争的背景下，对以色列的支持已跌至何等地步。这场战争已造成7万多名巴勒斯坦人死亡，被广泛描述为种族灭绝，并以三年前难以想象的方式重塑了美国政治。
Trump’s suggestion that he would replace nearly $4bn in annual military aid with arms sales signaled little would change in practice – the funding would continue and it would be harder to track. But it was still a notable recognition by the president of just how much support for Israel has tanked against the backdrop of the latest war in Gaza, which has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, been widely been described as a genocide, and reshaped US politics in ways unthinkable just three years ago.
确实，明年1月，美国众议院将迎来一位曾赴加沙执行医疗任务的军医、一位因博客文章批评以色列战争而被律所解雇的律师、一位近期在协助巴勒斯坦人在被占领的约旦河西岸采摘橄榄时被以色列部队拘留的犹太裔议员，以及一位参加过亲巴勒斯坦学生露营抗议、并以“婴儿，而非炸弹”为旗帜在初选季取得最惊人冷门胜利的社区组织者。
Indeed, come January, the US House will include an army doctor who went on a medical mission in Gaza, a lawyer who was fired by her firm over a blogpost criticizing Israel’s war, a Jewish lawmaker who was recently detained by Israeli forces while helping Palestinians harvest olives in the occupied West Bank, and a community organizer who participated in a pro-Palestine student encampment and scored one of the primary season’s most stunning upsets under the banner “babies, not bombs”.
亲巴勒斯坦候选人——包括巴勒斯坦裔美国候选人——在下层选票竞选中获胜。而在密歇根州，阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德成为首位当选美国参议员的穆斯林，此前他的竞选活动见证了美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）斥资4000多万美元试图击败他、最后时刻的戏剧性变故，以及前所未有的伊斯兰恐惧症言论和偏见。
Pro-Palestinian candidates – including Palestinian-American ones – have won downballot races. And in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate, following a campaign that saw more than $40m spent by Aipac in an effort to defeat him, last-minute drama, and unprecedented levels of Islamophobic rhetoric and bigotry.
“关于以色列的旧两党共识已经结束，”犹太和平之声行动组织政治总监贝丝·米勒说。没有这一共识，下届国会可能会推动一系列措施，从对以色列实施武器禁运到制裁暴力定居者和官员——尽管特朗普将保留否决权以阻止这些措施。
“The old bipartisan consensus on Israel is over,” Beth Miller, political director of Jewish Voice for Peace Action, said. Without that consensus in place, the next Congress could push a number of measures, from an arms embargo on Israel to sanctions against violent settlers and officials – though Trump would retain veto power to block them.
此次投票也是对特朗普发动伊朗战争的否定——连万斯周三都说这“几乎对所有人都显而易见”。外交政策问题很少决定美国大选——也就是说，除非这些问题直接影响美国人的国内生活。
The vote was also a rejection of Trump’s war in Iran – something even JD Vance said on Wednesday was “obvious to almost everyone”. Foreign policy issues rarely determine US elections – that is, until those issues have a direct effect on Americans’ lives at home.
“每次去加油站和杂货店，美国人都会想起伊朗战争的失败，”阿拉伯中心华盛顿特区巴勒斯坦/以色列项目负责人优素福·穆奈耶说。“以色列是这一故事的核心部分。”在全国范围内，从联邦到地方各级选票上，毫不掩饰支持巴勒斯坦的候选人击败了支持以色列的候选人，尽管像美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）这样的团体投入数千万美元试图扭转以色列在美国选民中崩塌的地位，但均告失败。
“Americans were reminded of the failures of the Iran war with every visit to the gas station and grocery store,” said Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel Program at the Arab Center Washington DC. “Israel is a central piece of that story.”Across the country, and up and down the ballot, unabashedly pro-Palestinian candidates defeated pro-Israel ones despite groups like Aipac pouring tens of millions of dollars into a failed attempt to reverse Israel’s collapsing standing among US voters.
上个月，AIPAC 承认其公开支持对亲以色列候选人的伤害大于帮助，并宣布将停止直接背书和捐款——这是一个引人注目的承认，即使实际后果微乎其微。
Last month, Aipac acknowledged its open support was hurting pro-Israel candidates more than it helped them, and announced it would stop making direct endorsements and contributions – a remarkable admission even if one with little practical consequence.
埃尔-赛义德和其他几位因支持巴勒斯坦而被右翼描绘成反犹太主义者的候选人获胜，也标志着对亲以色列声音和特朗普政府过去三年不断推行的叙事的重大拒绝——即批评以色列在默认情况下就是反犹太主义。
The victories of El-Sayed and several other candidates whom the right sought to cast as antisemitic over their support for Palestinians also marked a significant rejection of the narrative that pro-Israel voices and the Trump administration have relentlessly advanced over the last three years – that criticism of Israel is, by default, antisemitic.
“如果你认为巴勒斯坦孩子应该能在祖辈的土地上长大，而不被我们的税款资助的谋杀所夺去生命，他们就会试图给你扣上‘仇恨’的帽子，”埃尔-赛义德在获奖感言中说。尽管因对巴勒斯坦人的支持而面临巨大压力，他依然直言不讳地表达立场。“如果你相信和平、尊严和自决的平等权利，那不是仇恨，那是爱。”根据出口民调，在密歇根州，埃尔-赛义德赢得了犹太裔选民的多数选票。
“They try to call you hateful if you believe that Palestinian kids should get to grow up in the land of their forefathers without being murdered by our tax dollars,” El-Sayed, who has continued to speak plainly about his support for Palestinians despite coming under enormous pressure over it, said during his acceptance speech. “If you believe in equal rights to peace, dignity, and self determination, that’s not hate, it’s love.”In Michigan, El-Sayed won a majority of Jewish voters, according to exit polls.
尽管有警告称，因民主党在以色列问题上的立场转变，犹太人将大批离开民主党，但J Street（杰街）的民调显示，周二有72%的犹太裔选民投票支持民主党，尽管共和党在犹太裔选民中的得票率自2024年以来有所上升。
Despite warnings that Jews would leave the Democratic party en masse over its shifts on Israel, J Street said its polling found that 72% of Jews voted for Democrats on Tuesday, even though the Republican party increased its share of the Jewish vote since 2024..
这并不意味着民主党在以色列和巴勒斯坦问题上，或在反对对外战争的立场上已经实现了统一。
This does not mean that the Democratic party is unified on Israel and Palestine and or in opposition to foreign wars.
“几十年来，民主党‘排斥或边缘化任何将进步价值观延伸至支持巴勒斯坦的人’，”中东和平基金会主席拉拉·弗里德曼说。“美国选民、组织者和一批极具天赋的候选人齐心协力，踢开了这扇门。”国际政策中心执行副主席、曾任参议员伯尼·桑德斯外交政策助手的马特·杜斯表示，民主党现在必须抓住机遇，成为反战政党。
For decades, the party has “excluded or marginalized anyone whose progressive values extend to support for Palestine”, Lara Friedman, the president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, said. “American voters, organizers, and a cohort of enormously talented candidates came together and kicked the door down.”Matt Duss, executive vice-president of the Center for International Policy and a former foreign policy aide to Senator Bernie Sanders, said that the Democrats now must seize the opportunity to become the party opposed to war.
“特朗普在2024年以反战候选人的身份参选并获胜，因为不幸的是，民主党把这条赛道拱手让给了他，”他说。“问题是：民主党最终会醒悟吗？他们最终会意识到美国人厌倦了战争，想要一种新的外交政策吗？”
“Trump ran and won as an anti-war candidate in 2024, because unfortunately Democrats left that lane wide open for him,” he said. “The question is: will Democrats finally get it? Will they finally realize that Americans are tired of war and want a new foreign policy?”