每个工作日，CNBC“吉姆·克莱默投资俱乐部”都会发布“收盘前快讯”——一份可操作的下午更新，正好赶上华尔街最后一小时交易。周三中期选举后股市上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨约1.7%。选举结果成为市场许多板块的清算事件。WTI原油下跌超过8%，跌破每桶90美元，因为市场希望民主党赢得国会控制权意味着中东战争不会升级。
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stocks jumped on Wednesday after the midterm elections, with the S & P 500 up about 1.7%. The elections turned out to be a clearing event for many parts of the market. WTI crude was down over 8%, falling below $90 per barrel, on hopes that the Democrats winning control of Congress means there won't be an escalation in the Middle East War.
这推动油气股下跌，同时提振了与能源大宗商品和中东有业务的公司。也有观点认为，鉴于价格可负担性对选民至关重要，民主党胜利可能导致关税回调。国债收益率也下行，基准10年期收益率降至4.9%。油价、国债收益率和关税预期的下降，为家居相关股票提供了急需的提振，如家得宝，该股自8月以来首次重返今年正收益区间。
That pushed oil and gas stocks lower while lifting companies with exposure to energy commodities and the Middle East. There's also a view that the Democratic victory could lead to a rollback of tariffs, given how important affordability was to voters. Treasury yields also moved lower, with the benchmark 10-year yield dipping to 4.9%. The decline in oil prices, Treasury yields and tariff expectations provided a much-needed boost to housing-related stocks like Home Depot , which is back in positive territory for the year for the first time since August.
消费品和可选消费股也因能源价格下跌将减轻消费者钱包压力，从而让消费者在TJX公司和星巴克等零售商及咖啡连锁店多花钱的预期而上涨。并非所有股票都被买入。数据中心基础设施股票受到重创，市场担忧民主党在中期选举中获胜可能会放慢人工智能数据中心建设步伐，尤其是在得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州等关键市场。自夏末以来，我们一直提醒，中期选举前对新建数据中心的政治压力日益增大。
Consumer staples and discretionary stocks also rallied on the idea that a drop in energy prices will provide a relief to consumer wallets, allowing for more spending at retailers like TJX Companies and coffee chains like Starbucks . Not everything was bought. Data center infrastructure stocks are getting hit hard on concerns that Democratic victories in the midterm elections could slow the pace of artificial intelligence data center construction, particularly in key markets such as Texas and Ohio. Since the end of the summer, we've cautioned around the growing political pressure against new data center construction into the midterms.
我们认为，面临风险的项目可能比大型超大规模云计算公司正在开展的项目更加“边缘”和“投机”，但投资活动的放缓对伊顿和GE Vernova等电气设备与发电公司以及半导体股票都是不利的。即便是AMD和俱乐部持仓的Qnity Electronics也表现挣扎，尽管两家公司都公布了优于预期的季度业绩并给出了乐观指引。英特尔股价延续了近期的疲软走势，不过在一份文件显示CEO陈立武于周一以64.73美元的平均价格买入15万股后，该股收窄了跌幅。
We think the projects at risk are probably more "fringe" and "speculative" than those being undertaken by the major hyperscalers, but a slowdown in investment activity is negative for electrical equipment and power generation companies like Eaton and GE Vernova as well as the semiconductor stocks. Even AMD and Club name Qnity Electronics struggled despite both companies posting better-than-expected quarters with upbeat guidance. Intel shares continued their recent string of weakness, though the stock pared its losses after a filing showed CEO Lip Bu Tan purchased 150,000 shares on Monday at an average price of $64.73.
自9月底以来英特尔股价已惨跌50%，在此之后看到陈立武对英特尔的长期前景展现出一些信心是件好事。然而，这次买入并不具有通常那样的重要意义，因为陈立武——以及我们——在8月份以90多美元的价格错误地买入了该股，当时公司发售了约200亿美元的股票。随着AI资本支出受益者走弱，一直在为AI建设提供资金的公司——亚马逊、Alphabet、微软——大幅上涨。
It's good to see Tan show some conviction in the long-term Intel story after a disastrous 50% decline since the end of September. However, the purchase does not hold the same significance as it normally would because Tan — and us — incorrectly bought shares in the $90s in August when the company sold about $20 billion of stock . As AI capex beneficiaries faltered, the companies that have been funding the AI buildout — Amazon , Alphabet , Microsoft — were up big.
另一大支出方Meta Platforms小幅走高。其逻辑是，如果新监管限制数据中心开发并迫使企业放缓支出，它们激进的资本支出计划可能会受到约束，从而加快自由现金流转为上升的时间表。亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta都已陷入自由现金流为负的境地。微软仍保持为正，但其自由现金流已连续两个季度同比下降超过20%。支出放缓还可能意味着，超大规模云计算公司不需要那么多大规模债务和股权融资来为其建设提供资金，这是股东会欢迎的。
Meta Platforms , another big spender, was slightly higher. The idea is that if new regulations limit data center development and force companies to slow their spending, their aggressive capital expenditure programs could be reined in, accelerating the timeline for free cash flow to inflect higher. Amazon, Alphabet and Meta have all sunk into negative FCF territory. Microsoft has remained positive, though its FCF has fallen over 20% year over year in back-to-back quarters. Slowing spending could also mean the hyperscalers won't need as many large debt and equity offerings to fund their buildout, which is something shareholders would embrace.
我们对周三行情的看法是，我们不想对AI交易中一些超大幅度的波动反应过度——无论是朝哪个方向。如果数据中心建设放缓，也不会在一夜之间发生。
Our take on the action Wednesday is that we don't want to overreact to some of these outsized moves in the AI trade – in both directions. If the data center buildout slows, it's not going to happen overnight.
距离反数据中心言论有多少会转化为实际政策，进而影响公司业绩，目前还为时过早。不过，如果说一些芯片股和建设类股票的故事还和上周一样好，那我们就是在无视事实。我们对牛栏名单做了一处调整。我们将CVS Health移出名单，这是我们在9月初与金佰利-克拉克一起加入观察名单的股票，当时我们正在寻找估值低廉、股息收益率稳健的更具防御性的投资标的。
It's far too early to know how much of the anti-data center rhetoric will translate into actual policy and, by extension, affect companies' results. However, we would be ignoring the facts if we said some of the chip names and buildout stocks were as good of stories as they were last week. We're making one change to the Bullpen. We're taking out CVS Health , a name we added to our watchlist in early September alongside Kimberly-Clark , as we searched for more defensive ideas with cheap valuations and solid dividend yields.
我们看好CVS Health，因为该公司在首席执行官大卫·乔纳的领导下执行得当，且该股近期因对2027年盈利持保守预期而出现回调。但周三，故事发生了变化，当时该公司宣布计划将其全国零售药房业务与保险商埃特纳以及药品福利管理公司CVS Caremark分拆。虽然创建两家独立公司有其优点，但这一过程将非常漫长，拆分预计要到2028年上半年才能完成。
We liked CVS Health because the company was executing well under CEO David Joyner and the stock had recently pulled back on conservative 2027 earnings expectations. But the story changed on Wednesday, when the company announced plans to separate its national retail pharmacy from insurer Aetna and pharmacy benefit manager CVS Caremark. While there are merits to creating two independent companies, the process will take a very long time, with the breakup not expected to be completed until the first half of 2028.
我们将CVS Health移出牛栏名单，因为漫长的时间表可能会让该股陷入“分拆炼狱”，直到拆分临近才可能摆脱。周三收盘后发布财报的公司有麦克森、高通、 Expedia、DoorDash 和 Coherent。周四开盘前，我们将看到俱乐部名股金佰利-克拉克和卡迪纳尔健康的财报。还有信诺、卡明斯、派克汉尼汾、塔加资源和贝克顿·迪金森也将发布财报。
We're removing CVS Health from the Bullpen because the lengthy timeline could leave the stock stuck in "spin purgatory" until the breakup gets closer. Companies reporting after Wednesday's closing bell are McKesson , Qualcomm , Expedia , DoorDash , and Coherent . Before the opening bell on Thursday, we'll see earnings from Club names Kimberly-Clark and Cardinal Health . Also reporting are Cigna , Cummins , Parker Hannifin , Targa Resources , and Becton Dickinson .
在数据方面，我们将看到劳工部的每周失业救济申请报告，以及外包公司挑战者、格雷和圣诞公司的裁员数据。
On the data side, we'll see the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report and job cuts from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. ()