每个工作日，CNBC投资俱乐部与吉姆·克莱默都会发布《冲刺阶段》——一份可操作的午后更新，正好赶在华尔街最后一个小时交易前发布。选后反弹已成遥远的记忆。周四，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数正经历自2025年4月以来最糟糕的一天，而2025年4月正是唐纳德·特朗普总统首次宣布全面关税的时期。周三，当指数飙升时，吉姆·克莱默曾警告说，华尔街对中期选举民主党浪潮的第一反应可能是错误的。
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. The postelection rally is a distant memory . The S & P 500 and Nasdaq on Thursday are having their worst days since April 2025, which was when President Donald Trump first announced sweeping tariffs. On Wednesday, as the indexes were soaring, Jim Cramer had been warning that Wall Street's first reaction to the midterm Democratic wave might be wrong.
他的谨慎是多么正确：纳斯达克指数下跌约4.5%，使这个以科技股为主的指数进入回调区间。回调的定义是从历史高点下跌10%——而对纳斯达克来说，那个历史高点仅仅是一个月前的事。标普500指数周四下跌约4%，但尚未接近回调水平。周四市场暴跌，投资者纷纷逃离科技股。周二民主党在国会山的横扫以及关键州长竞选的胜利，引发了人们对AI数据中心建设放缓的担忧。
How right he was to be cautious: The Nasdaq is down about 4.5%, which sent the tech-heavy index into a correction. A correction is defined by a decline of 10% from its record high — and for the Nasdaq, that record high was only a month ago. The S & P 500 is down about 4% Thursday, but not near correction levels. The market is plunging Thursday as investors stampede out of tech stocks. Tuesday's Democratic sweep on Capitol Hill and victories key gubernatorial races are sparking fears of an AI data center slowdown.
周三的市场反弹虽然强劲，但暗含着从AI交易中轮动撤出的强烈暗流。这只是被指数层面的急剧上涨所掩盖。周三的反弹还受益于油价大幅下跌，因为人们认为民主党浪潮将阻止中东紧张局势进一步恶化。周四，标普500指数的全部11个板块均告下跌，同时原油价格回升，因交易员重新考虑选举对伊朗战争的影响。AI交易正在变成赢家与输家的分化。
The market rally Wednesday, while strong, had a strong undercurrent of rotation out of the AI trade. It was just masked by sharp gains at the index levels. Wednesday's rally also had the benefit of sharply lower oil prices on the thought the Democratic wave would prevent Middle East tensions from getting any worse. Not only are all 11 S & P 500 sectors in the red Thursday, crude is back up as traders reconsider the election's implications for the Iran war. The AI trade is turning into the have and have-nots .
在周四的晨会上，吉姆指出，对数据中心建设放缓的担忧并非对每家公司都一样。过去两天里，他表示选举结果可能会使需要融资来发展的公司更加困难。这就是新型云服务公司，其中CoreWeave是最引人注目的。其股价周四下跌近9%，延续了灾难性的走势。
During Thursday's Morning Meeting, Jim made the point that the concerns about a slowdown in the data center buildout are not the same for every company. Over the past two days, he has said the election results will likely make it more difficult for companies that need financing to grow. That's the neoclouds, of which CoreWeave is the most visible. Its shares are down almost 9% Thursday, extending its disastrous stretch.
自纳斯达克10月6日创下收盘纪录以来，CoreWeave的市值已蒸发过半。彭博社周四的一篇文章描绘了这一图景。文章称，微软正后悔当初的决定，并收紧对与新型云服务商合作的数据中心项目的监管。与此同时，Meta Platforms总裁迪娜·鲍威尔·麦考密克在《华尔街日报》的一场会议上表示，新建数据中心“将会更加困难”。
Since the Nasdaq's record close Oct. 6, CoreWeave has lost over half its value. An article from Bloomberg on Thursday paints the picture . It says Microsoft is having buyer's remorse and tightening oversight of data center projects with neoclouds. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms President Dina Powell McCormick said at a Wall Street Journal conference that building new data centers is "going to be harder."
尽管周四所有与AI相关的资产都遭到重创，但超大规模云服务商已经拥有了庞大的AI基础设施，以应对并不会就此消失的算力需求。而如果它们因新监管而被迫减少支出，这对它们的自由现金流来说可能是件好事。“尽管今天出现抛售，我们自周三反弹以来对Mag 7超大规模云服务商的看法并未改变。在获取融资和建设数据中心方面，它们的财务状况比新型云服务商好得多，”投资组合总监杰夫·马克斯表示。
While everything AI is getting crushed on Thursday, hyperscalers already have sprawling AI infrastructure in place for the compute demand that isn't just going to go away. And if they're forced to spend less because of new regulations, that could be a positive thing for their free cash flows. "Our view from Wednesday's rally about the Mag 7 hyperscalers has not changed despite today's selloff.
下一个重大考验是周五的就业报告。开盘前，政府将公布10月非农就业报告。根据FactSet的共识预期，经济学家预计新增就业6.5万人，此前9月新增就业2.9万人，远弱于预期。10月失业率预计持平于4.2%。10月平均时薪预计上涨0.3%，高于前月。就业报告的表现将为市场提供线索，判断还应预期美联储加息多少次，主席凯文·沃什需在央行最大化就业与促进物价稳定的双重使命之间取得平衡。
They are in a much better financial position than the neoclouds to get access to funding and get data centers built," portfolio director Jeff Marks said. The next big test is Friday's job report . Before the opening bell, the government will releases the October nonfarm payrolls report. According to the FactSet consensus estimate, economists are looking for 65,000 new jobs following September's much weaker-than-expected 29,000 additions. The October unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are seen up 0.3% in October, hotter than the prior month.
使命中通胀这一方面无疑是他最关心的。尽管央行官员在上个月的会议上维持利率不变，但周三时12月加息看起来几乎已成定局。然而，根据CME FedWatch工具，短短一天之内，加息概率从近83%降至周四的66%。
What the jobs report shows will provide insights into how many more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes to expect, as Chairman Kevin Warsh balances the central bank's dual mandate of maximizing employment and fostering price stability. The inflation side of the mandate is definitely what he's most concerned with. While central bankers held rates steady at last month's meeting, a hike in December was looking like a lock Wednesday.
这是过去两天投资者买入债券带来的巨大转变，使10年期美国国债收益率回落至4.9%以下。但就像周三到周四的市场一样，周五一切都可能发生变化。就业报告是关键所在。（）
However, in one day, odds of nearly 83% for a rate increase sank to 66% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool . That's a huge swing brought on by investors buying bonds over the past two days, which sent the 10-year Treasury yield back under 4.9%. But like the market from Wednesday to Thursday, everything could change Friday. The jobs reports holds the key. ()