民主党夺取国会控制权后股市上涨。随着投资者预见到华盛顿将陷入僵局——这通常是一个看涨信号——市场走高。
Stocks Rise as Democrats Flip Control of Congress Markets traded higher as investors foresaw gridlock in Washington, typically a bullish signal. S&P 500 index How stocks are trading in the United States Stock markets gained on Wednesday, as it became clear that Democrats were set to seize control of Congress in a resounding midterm election victory that surpassed the party’s most optimistic expectations.
标普500指数 美国股市交易情况 美国股市周三上涨,因为明确显示民主党将在中期选举中以压倒性胜利夺取国会控制权,这一结果超出了该党最乐观的预期。
The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent, its biggest daily gain in three months.
标普500指数上涨1.6%,为三个月来最大单日涨幅。纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.4%。追踪30家大公司的道琼斯工业平均指数飙升3%,为特朗普总统再次当选以来的第二佳单日表现。
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average, which tracks 30 big companies, surged 3 percent, its second best day since President Trump was re-elected. For investors, perhaps the most important takeaway from the midterms is that they are over.
对投资者而言,中期选举或许最重要的启示是:选举已经结束。历史上,选举日可能发生什么的不确定性对市场的压力,往往大于结果明朗化本身,无论结果如何。
Uncertainty over what might happen on Election Day has historically weighed more heavily on the market than the clarity of a result, regardless of what that result has been. The Democrats’ sweep is likely to produce gridlock in Washington.
民主党的横扫很可能导致华盛顿陷入僵局。这在某些领域可能引发政治问题,比如在批准政府支出方面。与此同时,政策制定长期停滞往往对投资者是一个看涨信号,使他们能够减少对新规则和新法律背后政治操作的关注。
That can cause political problems in some areas, such as when it comes to approving government spending. At the same time, an extended stasis for policymaking tends to be a bullish signal for investors, allowing them to pay less attention to the political maneuverings behind new rules and laws. Another reason that markets tend to respond positively to elections is that money parked on the sidelines to avoid any potential tumult re-enters the market, helping to lift stock prices.
市场往往对选举作出积极反应的另一个原因是,此前为规避潜在动荡而观望的资金重新进入市场,帮助推高股价。
“Stocks are breathing a big sigh of relief this morning, as the midterms are finally done,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, an advisory firm.
“今天上午股市大大松了一口气,因为中期选举终于结束了,”咨询公司Carson Group首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克表示。“市场讨厌不确定性,现在选举已经过去,我们看到买家全面入场,”他补充道。
“Markets hate uncertainty, and now with the election out of the way, we are seeing buyers step in across the board,” he added. Global stock market reaction When early results on Tuesday night pointed to a landslide victory for the Democrats, Asian stocks initially tumbled, as investors fretted about the artificial intelligence trade that has lifted markets to new heights.
全球股市反应 周二晚间初步结果显示民主党大获全胜时,亚洲股市最初大幅下跌,投资者担忧人工智能交易——正是这一交易推动市场屡创新高。中期选举前,市场理论认为民主党大胜将放缓人工智能建设,可能使科技股的长期涨势脱轨。
Before the midterms, the theory was that a Democratic sweep would slow the A.I. build-out, potentially derailing the prolonged rally in technology stocks. But such concerns appeared to be quickly pushed off.
但此类担忧似乎很快被抛诸脑后。亚洲市场扭转跌势,随后欧洲和美国市场普遍上涨,多数板块录得涨幅。
Asian markets turned around and a broad rally in European and U.S. markets followed, with most sectors posting gains. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the investment bank Natixis, said that she did not expect the Democrats to “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.”
投资银行法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家艾西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗表示,她并不认为民主党会“杀鸡取卵”。安联全球投资的研究报告称,民主党大胜“最终带来的政治紧张局势大于根本性的政策变化”。处于人工智能建设前沿的一些关键“超大规模”公司的股票——如Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta和微软——全部上涨。
The Democratic sweep, according to a research note from Allianz Global Investors, “ultimately brings greater political tension than fundamental policy change.”The stocks of some key “hyperscalers” at the forefront of the A.I. build-out — companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft — all rose. Attention homed in on some of the A.I.-linked companies that investors deemed to be riskier, either because of large debt loads, runaway spending or a lack of revenue to justify such aggressive expansion.
注意力集中在一些与人工智能相关的公司上,投资者认为这些公司风险较高,原因要么是债务负担沉重、支出失控,要么是缺乏足以支撑如此激进扩张的收入。甲骨文下跌1.9%,而CoreWeave——其数据中心业务令投资者担忧——跌幅超过9%。
Oracle fell 1.9 percent and CoreWeave, a company whose data-center dealings have worried investors, lost more than 9 percent. Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk’s companies that both make heavy use of A.I., tumbled in a choppy trading session, pointing to the probable congressional attention to come on Mr. Musk roles as a political megadonor, former government cost-cutter and as a business leader who has aligned his interest closely with those of the Trump administration.
埃隆·马斯克旗下的特斯拉和SpaceX都大量使用人工智能,在震荡的交易时段中大幅下挫,这预示着国会可能将关注马斯克的多重角色:政治巨额捐款人、前政府削减成本负责人,以及一位将自身利益与特朗普政府紧密绑定的商业领袖。
More defensive parts of the market that investors typically move into during periods of upheaval also saw selling on Wednesday.
投资者在市场动荡时期通常转向的防御性板块周三也遭遇抛售。工业和能源是标普500指数中仅有的两个下跌板块,其余九个板块均上涨。
Industrials and energy stocks were the two sectors of the S&P 500 to fall, while the other nine rose. Several analysts said the election result could increase President Trump’s focus on foreign policy, specifically the war in Iran.
多位分析人士表示,选举结果可能使特朗普总统更加聚焦外交政策,尤其是伊朗战争。副总统JD·万斯在社交媒体发文中,将共和党的惨败直接归咎于对伊朗的战争。随后,特朗普表示这一说法“大体属实”。周三油价大幅下跌,全球基准布伦特原油下跌超过8%,至每桶94.62美元,延续了近日的跌势,其间美国与伊朗正在进行谈判。
In a social media post, Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican wipeout squarely on the war with Iran. Later, Mr. Trump said the assertion was “largely true.”Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, sliding more than 8 percent to $94.62 a barrel, extending declines in recent days as negotiations took place between the United States and Iran. Government borrowing costs, which have closely tracked the price of oil for much of this year, also fell.
今年以来大部分时间与油价走势密切相关的政府借贷成本也出现下降。作为消费者和企业利率基准的10年期美国国债收益率周三降至4.89%。通常与利率走势同步的美元兑其他主要货币下跌。
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which underpins interest rates for consumers and companies, dropped on Wednesday to 4.89 percent. The dollar, which tends to move in line with the path of interest rates, fell against other major currencies. According to the Franklin Templeton Institute, the S&P 500 averaged a 14.9 percent gain over the 12 months after the 10 midterm elections under Republican presidents since 1954, with similar market moves regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats took control of Congress.
据富兰克林邓普顿研究所的数据,自1954年以来,在共和党总统任内的10次中期选举后,标普500指数在随后的12个月中平均上涨14.9%,无论共和党还是民主党掌控国会,市场走势都类似。
But some analysts have warned that a conventional post-election rally may not hold for long, given the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East and still-high borrowing costs and government spending.
但一些分析人士警告称,鉴于中东可能再度爆发冲突以及借贷成本和政府支出仍处高位,常规的选后上涨行情可能不会持续太久。
“Shutdowns, debt-ceiling brinkmanship and budget gridlock under a Democratic Congress are greater risks,” strategists at the research arm of Amundi Investment Solutions wrote in a pre-election report.
东方汇理投资解决方案研究部门的策略师在选前报告中写道:“在民主党掌控国会的情况下,政府停摆、债务上限边缘政策和预算僵局是更大的风险。在以往的周期中,僵局曾是一种纾困交易。在当前的收益率水平下,情况可能并非如此。”River Akira Davis和Alexandra Stevenson对报道有贡献。Sui-Lee Wee是《纽约时报》亚洲商业记者。
“In prior cycles, gridlock was a relief trade. At current yield levels, it may not be.”River Akira Davis and Alexandra Stevenson contributed reporting. Sui-Lee Wee is the Asia business correspondent for The Times.
Aruni Soni是一名商业记者,也是2026-27年度时报奖学金成员,该项目面向职业生涯早期的记者。
Aruni Soni is a business reporter and a member of the 2026-27 Times Fellowship, a program for journalists early in their careers.
埃谢·纳尔逊是《纽约时报》驻伦敦记者,负责报道经济和商业新闻。
Eshe Nelson is a Times reporter based in London, covering economics and business news.
乔·伦尼森负责报道金融市场,其报道范围从记录股市的变幻莫测,到解释华尔街内部人士往往令人费解的交易决策。
Joe Rennison writes about financial markets, a beat that ranges from chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders.