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专家:民主党“蓝色浪潮”对气候行动意味着什么What Experts Think the Democratic Blue Wave Will Mean For Climate Action

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在华盛顿连续两年推行反气候立法之后,周二出现的“蓝色浪潮”——让民主党同时掌控参议院和众议院——可能为改变方向提供机会。

Following two years of anti-climate legislation from Washington, Tuesday’s blue tidal wave—giving Democrats control of both the Senate and the House—could provide an opportunity to change course.

在2024年连任后,特朗普总统退出了《巴黎协定》,撤销了具有里程碑意义的“危害认定”,并出租公共土地用于石油和天然气钻探——而民主党对此无能为力。

Following his 2024 reelection, President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement, rolled back the landmark endangerment finding, and leased public lands for oil and gas drilling—with Democrats unable to do much about it.

未来两年大概不会带来激进的气候政策,但中期选举预计仍会带来转变。“我们会看到雄心勃勃的气候行动吗?答案是不会,”耶鲁环境学院环境与能源经济学教授肯·吉林厄姆说。“我们仍然有一个由特朗普总统控制否决权的行政部门,因此任何举措都必须通过否决这一关。”但密歇根大学环境政策与规划助理教授杰弗里·亨德森表示,尽管民主党可能无法逆转许多倒退举措,中期选举如今给了他们“一手更强的牌可打”。

The next two years likely won’t bring aggressive climate policy, nonetheless a shift is expected as a result of the midterms. “Are we going to see ambitious climate action? The answer is no,” says Ken Gillingham, professor of environmental and energy economics at the Yale School of the Environment. “We still have an executive branch with a veto power controlled by President Trump, and so anything that is done would have to make it through the veto.”But while Democrats might be unable to reverse many of the rollbacks, the midterms now give them, “a stronger hand to play,” says Geoffrey Henderson, assistant professor of environmental policy and planning at the University of Michigan.

一个优先事项可能是恢复特朗普总统扣留的数十亿美元气候资金。在缅因州赢得连任的民主党人切莉·平格里是众议院拨款委员会成员,她曾表示计划迫使政府支出气候资金。

One priority might be to reinstate billions of dollars in climate funding that President Trump has withheld. Chellie Pingree, a Democrat who won reelection in Maine, serves on the House Appropriations Committee and has said that she plans to force the administration to spend climate money.

民主党人也有权把重点放在加强许可改革法案上,该法案旨在彻底改革许可流程,以加快能源项目的推进。该法案在选举前就似乎有望通过,但充斥着让步。“在选举之前,该法案包含了多项削弱核心环境法律(如《国家环境政策法》)的条款,”Henderson 说。“民主党现在能做的基本上是要求更好的交易。”对国内电池制造的支持也可能增加——这可能是实现清洁能源目标的关键部分。“人们会倾向于把部分电动汽车供应链在国内上岸,我认为这相当两党共识,”Gillingham 说。

Democrats also have the power to focus on bulking up the permitting reform bill, which aims to overhaul the permit process to speed up energy projects. The bill appeared likely to pass even before the election, but was filled with concessions. “Prior to the election, the bill included a number of provisions to weaken core environmental laws like the National Environmental Policy Act,” says Henderson. “What Democrats can now do is basically ask for a better deal.”Increased support for domestic battery manufacturing is also likely—which could be a key part in meeting clean energy targets. “There would be an appetite for domestic onshoring of some of the supply chain that goes into electric vehicles, and I think that this is pretty bipartisan,” says Gillingham.

Gillingham 还指出,我们可能会看到民主党追求“上述所有”气候政策,这些政策往往包括油气让步以及清洁能源增长。

Gillingham also notes that we could see Democrats pursue “all of the above” climate policies, which often include oil and gas concessions along with clean energy growth.

“在整个民主党议员中,几乎没有人会对雄心勃勃的气候行动产生兴趣,即使他们可能对气候行动持同情态度,他们也没有从他们所在的位置获得政治支持,”他指出。“但他们确实有政治支持来执行上述所有能源政策。”民主党在密歇根州、威斯康星州、明尼苏达州、宾夕法尼亚州和内华达州实现了三权合一——控制众议院、参议院和州长职位。例如,在宾夕法尼亚州,这为通过监管数据中心、允许社区太阳能以及要求公用事业储存多余电力的立法打开了大门。

“There's just not going to be an appetite among a whole set of members of the Democratic Caucus for ambitious climate action, even if they may be sympathetic to climate action, they don't have the political backing to do it from where they are sitting,” he notes. “But they do have the political backing to do all of the above energy policies.”Democrats also achieved trifectas—controlling the House, Senate, and governorship—in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. In Pennsylvania, for example, this opens the floodgates to pass legislation to regulate data centers, allow community solar, and to require utilities to store excess electricity.

这场以能源可负担性为中心的选举也证明,气候变化并不是许多人所说的禁忌话题。

This election—in which energy affordability took center stage—also proved that climate change isn’t the taboo subject many have made it out to be.

麻省理工学院气候政策中心执行主任贝瑟尼·帕滕在一份声明中表示:“这一结果为将气候议题重新带回能源讨论创造了新的机会,也提供了一些喘息空间,尤其是如果这些讨论能够同时带来经济效益和减排效果,特别是在电价可负担性、电网基础设施和清洁能源投资方面。”佛罗里达州民主党人凯西·卡斯托和俄亥俄州民主党人玛西·卡普图尔都是没有向许多其他民主党人所陷入的“气候噤声”屈服的候选人。

“The results create new opportunities and give some breathing room to bring climate back into the energy discussion, especially if those discussions can deliver both economic benefits and emissions reductions, particularly around electricity affordability, grid infrastructure, and clean-energy investment,” Bethany Patten, executive director of the MIT Climate Policy Center, said in an Florida Democrat Kathy Castor, and Marcy Kaptur, an Ohio Democrat, are both candidates who did not give in to the “climate hushing” many other Democrats fell victim to. “Their victory suggests that being a vocal advocate for climate action is consistent with winning tough races, even in red states,” says Henderson.

亨德森说:“她们的胜利表明,大声倡导气候行动与赢得艰难选战是一致的,即使在红州也是如此。展望未来,我认为候选人应当更有底气地谈论这个问题。”

“Going forward, I think candidates should feel more empowered to talk about the issue.”

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