A blue wave that brings Democrats control of Congress could also have the counterintuitive effect of swamping climate policy partners across the aisle.

The Conservative Climate Caucus, a Republican group in the House that advocates for climate and clean-energy policies, could lose up to a third of its members in the midterms.

The caucus's chair, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), is in a race that is leaning Democratic, and vice chairs Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) are in toss-up races, according to Cook Political Report. Eleven of the 66-member caucus are in tight races — and 15 more are retiring, have lost primaries or are running for non-House positions, including vice chair Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.).

The midterms’ potential to wipe out such a wide swath of climate-oriented Republicans poses a major threat to Congress’ fledgling conservative climate movement, which has already tamped down its rhetoric and advocacy since President Donald Trump took office. Democrats are poised to renew their push on climate if they retake the House, but the loss of these Republicans could shrink the pool of negotiating partners across the aisle and deepen the partisan divide on climate.

“It is very unfortunate that Republicans who are constructive on climate will lose — not because of that issue, but because it's a wave election,” said Alex Flint, a former Republican Senate aide and executive director of the conservative group Alliance for Market Solutions. “It is one of the issues Republicans use to differentiate themselves in swing districts, which also means it is vulnerable to races where swing districts are swept out.”Some of the most-vulnerable Republicans have been vocal defenders of clean energy.

Of 21 Republican House members who advocated for maintaining clean energy tax credits during last year’s reconciliation fight, nine are in races that are toss-ups or leaning Democratic. Also in a tight race is Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who often stands apart from Republicans by advocating for carbon pricing and endangered species protections.

Being a climate-conscious Republican has had little political upside lately: the Conservative Climate Caucus failed to keep the Inflation Reduction Act's clean energy tax credits from being rolled back last year and the group's leaders have not been able to campaign on the issue this year.

Ciscomani, for example, welcomed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to his district this month, where the discussion topics included the Trump administration’s fossil-fuel-heavy “energy dominance” agenda and copper mining.

Ciscomani also recently promoted on social media his “Energy Champion” award from the American Energy Alliance, a pro-fossil-fuel group.

The Arizona Republican told POLITICO that he remains an advocate for "an all-of-the-above energy strategy." "Through my work with the Conservative Climate Caucus, I have also engaged on solutions that address environmental challenges while prioritizing innovation, responsible stewardship, and American energy security. Regardless of the room I am in, I have consistently advocated for an approach that recognizes the value of our domestic energy resources while protecting our natural environment," Ciscomani said in a statement.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) visited Miller-Meeks on a recent trip and joked about her intense efforts to pass legislation to allow year-round E15 sales. “I was so afraid. She was threatening me with my life,” he quipped.

Johnson also visited Kiggans in Virginia Beach in August. While Kiggans has worked since last year to save the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project off of that city’s coast from the Trump administration’s anti-offshore-wind actions, she made no mention of it at the time. The Miller-Meeks and Kiggans campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Those who work closely with conservative members on climate issues anticipate that the movement will need to rebuild following the midterms.

Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who founded the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus in 2016, said that a shift toward Democratic control would likely push more Republicans to think about climate change.

“You'll lose some members, but at the same time, a lot of the members that survive, or even Republicans who get elected in more competitive districts, will also take the message that it's important to take a broad approach and just be very pragmatic and forward-leaning when it comes to embracing all kinds of energy development,” Curbelo said.

Flint, likewise, said that Democratic control and the pace of climate change itself will ensure that the issue does not permanently fade into obscurity.

“When Democrats take over, they will raise the importance of addressing climate, and a new generation of Republicans will start to engage on this issue. It is the cycle of these things,” he said.

Champions in the Senate will remain, chief among them Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who is not facing reelection this year. Curtis founded the Conservative Climate Caucus while he was in the House, and has remained vocal on clean energy since his 2024 Senate election.

Curtis’ success leading the group is indicative of the importance of having climate leaders from more solidly red districts, said Heather Reams, who was until earlier this year president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, and is now an energy policy consultant.

Reams said that following the major blue wave midterm in 2018, she and others in the conservative climate space sought out members in “more ruby red states” to get involved on climate issues. She suggested the 2026 midterm aftermath could be a moment to do the same, pointing to places with significant clean energy installations or manufacturing facilities, such as in the Southeast, as places where advocates could convince members to join.

Zach Friedman, senior director of federal policy at sustainability nonprofit Ceres, agreed that the midterms could present an opportunity for environmental groups to make inroads with more conservative offices. “It would be good to have darker red champions,” Friedman said.

Should Democrats retake the House, they're poised to legislate on climate issues regardless of the Republican outlook on the issue.

But advocates say that they will need Republican partners in order to craft policies that could be signed into law under Trump and last through future congressional shifts in power.

"If we can make things bipartisan, the more durable and the more longevity policies have,” Friedman said.

“Climate policy cannot seesaw back and forth between the two parties,” Flint said. “We have to reach a consensus on energy and climate.”Flint added that, if Democrats take back the reins in the House on climate, it will become even more important for Republicans to have spaces to litigate the issue among themselves.

In times of Democratic control, Republicans have also used caucuses to criticize Democratic climate proposals as too focused on regulation and to contrast their more business-friendly ideas.

Should the leadership of the Conservative Climate Caucus be weakened, groups like the Problem Solvers and Build America caucuses could become centers of gravity for conservative climate advocacy, Friedman noted.

The bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus also remains operational, though its leadership trajectory is unclear, with Republican Co-Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) now the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee.

Curbelo, for his part, projected optimism, specifically pointing to bipartisan permitting reform efforts as evidence that Republicans are getting on board with some climate-oriented policies — and as legislation that could serve as a launch point for more Republicans to get involved on climate next Congress.

“If this permitting reform effort is successful, I think that will further empower Republicans to shed any ideological baggage when it comes to this issue,” Curbelo said.