随着民主党控制国会两院，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在任期最后两年可能会加强对外交政策的关注，同时面临对伊朗战争和乌克兰战争更严格的审查，专家向CNBC表示。
With Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, U.S. President Donald Trump could intensify his focus on foreign policy in his final two years in office, while facing greater scrutiny over the wars in Iran and Ukraine, experts told CNBC.
民主党将拥有参议院多数席位并赢得众议院控制权，这使他们有更大的空间来审查政府、塑造支出并挑战特朗普的外交政策议程。
Democrats will have a Senate majority and won control of the House, giving them greater scope to scrutinize the administration, shape spending and challenge Trump's foreign-policy agenda.
查塔姆研究所美国与北美项目主任劳雷尔·拉普在CNBC节目“Squawk Box Europe”中表示：“我们将看到一位在监督和调查事务上受到一定约束的总统，但在外交政策上，他仍保留很大的自由裁量权。”拉普称，伊朗战争是本次选举周期中的一个“主要议题”，正值燃油价格、食品成本和通胀飙升之际。这场战争始于特朗普于2月28日发动与以色列的联合打击。
"We are going to see a president that is somewhat constrained on matters of oversight and investigation, but on foreign policy, he does still retain a lot of latitude," Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's U.S. and North America Programme, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." Rapp said the Iran war was a "major issue" in this election cycle amid soaring fuel prices, food costs, and inflation. The war began when Trump launched joint strikes with Israel on Feb. 28.
拉普补充道：“共和党目前实际上没有退路。我们知道民主党将寻求在众议院和参议院进行表决，以约束共和党、限制政府在伊朗战争权力上的行动。但这能否真正约束政府，则是另一回事。”
"Republicans don't really have an off-ramp here at this stage. We know the Democrats will seek to take votes in the House and the Senate to constrain the Republicans, to restrain the administration on Iran war powers. But whether that will bind the administration is another matter," Rapp added.
她还表示，民主党可能利用国会的支出权力，试图限制战争资金。任何指令特朗普结束美国参与的法案，都需要参众两院三分之二的支持才能推翻总统的否决。
Democrats could use Congress' spending powers to try to restrict funding for the war, she added. Any bill directing Trump to end U.S. involvement would need two-thirds support in both chambers to override a presidential veto.
贝伦贝格首席经济学家霍尔格·施密丁在周三的一份报告中预测，将对伊朗进行最后一轮轰炸，特朗普最终将达成协议，于2027年前重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，因为选民感受到高物价和燃油成本的冲击。
In a Wednesday note, Berenberg's chief economist, Holger Schmieding, predicted a final round of bombing in Iran, with Trump ultimately striking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 2027, as voters feel the sting from high prices and fuel costs.
国防与安全智库RUSI研究员米切尔·赖斯预测，特朗普将在选举结果出炉后更换国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯。
Mitchell Reiss, a fellow with defense and security think tank RUSI, predicted that Trump would replace Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth following the results.
“传统上，总统确实会更换内阁官员。当然，如果你还记得，在出现这种中期选举结果后，乔治·W·布什在中期选举失利后用罗伯特·盖茨取代了唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德担任国防部长，所以这不会令人惊讶，”赖斯周三对CNBC表示。
"Traditionally, presidents do replace cabinet officials. Certainly, after midterm results like this one, if you remember, George W. Bush replaced Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense after midterm losses, so that wouldn't be a surprise," Reiss told CNBC on Wednesday.
德国马歇尔基金会访问高级研究员J.C. 林策尼希表示，总统并非“跛脚鸭”。“请记住，这次选举改变的是国会；并没有改变总统，”林策尼希周三在CNBC节目《欧洲开盘》中表示。
J.C. Lintzenich, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said that the president is not a "lame duck." "Remember that this election changes the Congress; it does not change the president," Lintzenich told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday.
“美国总统仍然拥有巨大的权力、巨大的权威。我们在伊朗问题上仍有待采取的行动。我们在俄罗斯和乌克兰问题上仍面临未解决的局势。”他补充说，虽然国会发生了变化，但外交政策仍由总统及其任命的官员执行。
"The President of the United States still has lots of power, lots of authority. We still have pending action in Iran. We still have an unresolved situation with Russia and Ukraine." He added that while Congress has changed, foreign policy is still executed by the president and his appointed officials.
“我们现在将看到的是国会监督稍微多一些，资金拨付的应用，例如乌克兰援助，这是法规和法律所要求的，”林策尼希说。
"What we'll now see is a little bit more congressional oversight, the application of funding, for example, Ukraine, that's required by statute and law," Lintzenich said.
林策尼希表示，即将离任的国会“更愿意对白宫网开一面”，但民主党控制两院将意味着一个更强势的国会，利用宪法第一条赋予的立法、支出和监督权力，迫使白宫更严格地遵守现有法律和国会要求。
Lintzenich said the outgoing Congress was "more willing to let the White House slide," but Democratic control of both chambers would mean a more assertive Congress, using its Article I powers over legislation, spending, and oversight to hold the White House more closely to existing law and congressional requirements.
贝伦贝格银行的施密丁警告称，随着民主党夺取参议院控制权，特朗普可能面临“未来更多麻烦”。
Berenberg's Schmieding warned that Trump could face "more trouble ahead" as Democrats take control of the Senate.
他说，国会不太可能为“一场类似伊朗战争的昂贵行动”提供资金，但他补充称，特朗普是“一个长期缺乏一致战略的永恒注意力追求者”，可能“甚至更渴望进行危险的地缘政治冒险”。
He said Congress was unlikely to fund "an expensive campaign similar to the Iran war, but added that Trump, "as a perennial attention seeker without a consistent long-term strategy," may be "even more eager to pursue dangerous geopolitical adventures."
在投票于周二进行时，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在柏林表示，美国的中期选举将“决定未来”。他说：“全世界都在关注。眼下形势极其不确定，许多希望可能再次落空。”
Speaking as voting took place on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the U.S. midterm elections would "shape the future."
与此同时，克里姆林宫表示，希望中期选举的结果不会影响特朗普促成乌克兰与俄罗斯和平协议的努力，路透社援引当地媒体报道。
"The world will be watching," he said in Berlin. "Right now, things are deeply uncertain. Many hopes may once again end in disappointment." Meanwhile, the Kremlin said it hoped the outcome of the midterms would not impact Trump's efforts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, Reuters reported, citing local media.
选举结果可能使特朗普争取国会支持或为协议争取资金的能力变得更加复杂，但并不妨碍他在外交上向基辅施压。贝伦堡的施密丁表示，特朗普可能会试图推动乌克兰达成对俄罗斯有利的协议，尽管他认为这是一种“尾部风险”。施密丁说，特朗普在中期选举失利后对共和党的影响可能会削弱，并指出包括国务卿马科·鲁比奥在内的共和党人对普京更加警惕。“这有助于遏制特朗普试图对乌克兰强加不可接受协议的风险，”他说。
The results could complicate Trump's ability to secure congressional backing or funding for a deal, but they do not prevent him from pressing Kyiv diplomatically. Berenberg's Schmieding said Trump could try to push Ukraine toward a deal favorable to Russia, though he considers that a "tail risk." Schmieding said Trump's influence over Republicans could weaken after the midterm defeat, noting that Republicans, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are warier of Putin. "That can help to contain the risk of Trump trying to impose an unacceptable deal on Ukraine," he said.
如果特朗普真的向乌克兰施压，施密丁认为欧洲可能会增加对乌克兰的支持，但仍无法完全取代美国关键的军事和情报援助。
If Trump did pressure Ukraine, Europe would likely increase its support, Schmieding said, but it could not fully replace critical U.S. military and intelligence assistance.
欧洲议会副议长克里斯特尔·沙尔德莫斯表示，选举结果“可能有利于对乌克兰的支持”，但她补充说：“欧盟必须继续保持更强大的姿态，站稳自己的脚跟。”
Christel Schaldemose, a vice president of the European Parliament, said the result "could benefit the support for Ukraine" but added: "The EU must continue the course of standing stronger and standing on its own two feet."