在特朗普白宫，有一句座右铭：“总得有人背锅。” 眼下，这个人看起来像是国防部长皮特·赫格塞思。
It's a motto in the Trump White House: "Somebody's gotta take the fall." Lately, that person looks like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
为何重要：从不得人心的对伊朗战争，到他与国会议员糟糕的两党关系，赫格塞思的表现使他在周二晚间中期选举惨败后，成为特朗普内阁中最岌岌可危的成员。
Why it matters: From the unpopular war in Iran to his bad bipartisan relations with members of Congress, Hegseth's record has made him the most vulnerable member of Trump's Cabinet after Tuesday night's midterm shellacking.
- “赫格塞思绝对处于薄冰之上，”一位特朗普顾问告诉《Axios》。“这不意味着总统会逼他走人。但存在一些棘手问题。”
• "Hegseth is definitely on thin ice," a Trump adviser told Axios. "It doesn't mean the president forces him out. But there are complications."
新闻驱动因素：最早下周，众议院可能会弹劾赫格塞思，指控他无视国会意愿、非法延续美国对伊朗的战争。
Driving the news: As early as next week, the House could impeach Hegseth for allegedly defying Congress and illegally continuing the U.S. war in Iran.
- 该议案由众议员托马斯·马西（共和党-肯塔基州）发起，他是以色列和对外战争的激烈批评者。
• The measure is sponsored by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a vociferous critic of Israel and foreign wars.
深度聚焦：伊朗既是赫格塞思可能面临弹劾的核心，也是共和党中期选举溃败的核心。许多选民反对这场战争及其副作用：伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡后，油价飙升。
Zoom in: Iran is at the center of both Hegseth's possible impeachment and Republicans' midterm collapse. Many voters oppose the war and its byproduct: higher gas prices that spiked after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
- 据知情人士透露，在特朗普于2月28日袭击伊朗之前，赫格塞思是最主战的人，并对冲突能多快、多容易解决给出了最乐观的预测。
• Before Trump attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Hegseth was the most gung-ho about the conflict, and he gave the rosiest projections about how quickly and easily it would be resolved, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
- 一位资深政府官员称，到8月时，美国中央司令部据报正在征求对伊朗施压的新思路，表明军方领导人仍在重新评估如何实现战略目标。
• By August, a senior administration official said, U.S. Central Command was reportedly soliciting new approaches to pressure Iran, suggesting that military leaders were still reassessing how to achieve strategic results.
- 中央司令部还在追问：“赫格塞思在什么时候意识到我们最初的战略无法产生他所预期并兜售的结果？”
• CentCom was also asking: "At what point did Hegseth recognize that our original strategy wasn't going to produce the outcome he expected and pitched?"
- 特朗普周三力挺赫格塞思，告诉记者这位部长“干得很好”。
• Trump stood by Hegseth on Wednesday, telling reporters that the secretary is "doing a very good job."
言外之意：特朗普惯于赞扬陷入困境的内阁部长，随后不久又谋求将其罢免。就赫格塞思而言，有四个因素正压在特朗普心头：
Between the lines: Trump has been known to praise an embattled Cabinet secretary, only to seek their ouster shortly thereafter. With Hegseth, four factors are weighing on Trump: **1.
1. 弹劾威胁。民主党人已经试图弹劾赫格塞斯，随着他们在1月获得众议院多数席位，这些努力可能会加剧。特朗普最不想看到的就是一系列令人分心的弹劾听证会聚焦于赫格塞斯动荡的任期——以及不可避免地聚焦于特朗普决定攻击伊朗。
The impeachment threat.** Democrats already have tried to impeach Hegseth, and with their new House majority in January, those efforts could intensify. The last thing Trump wants is a series of distracting impeachment hearings focused on Hegseth's rocky tenure — and, inevitably, Trump's decision to attack Iran.
- “如果没有伊朗战争，今晚的局面会截然不同，”一位政府官员周二晚间告诉《Axios》。“我认为你最终会看到总统让皮特·赫格塞斯承担责任，这将在‘跛脚鸭’时期上演，”指的是中期选举与新国会首个工作日（1月3日）之间的时期。
• "Tonight would have looked very different without the Iran war," one administration official told Axios late Tuesday. "I believe you'll ultimately see POTUS hold Pete Hegseth accountable, and that will play out in the lame duck," a reference to the period between the midterms and the new Congress' first day, Jan. 3. **2.
2. 特朗普需要一个“替罪羊”。总统在惨败的中期选举后震动政府班子由来已久。乔治·W·布什在2006年选举后显著解职了国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德。
Trump needs a scalp.** Presidents have a long history of shaking up their administrations after disastrous midterms. George W. Bush notably ousted Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld after the 2006 elections.
- 特朗普在此等惨败后进行高调人事调整并不令人意外。赫格塞斯的任期饱受争议，是潜在目标之一。
• It wouldn't be surprising to see Trump make a high-profile personnel change after a defeat of this magnitude. Hegseth, whose tenure has been marked by controversy, is one potential target.
- “总得有人背锅，皮特正跃居名单榜首，”一位美国官员说。
• "Somebody's gotta take the fall, and Pete is moving to the top of the list," a U.S. official said. **3.
3. “跛脚鸭”时窗。如果特朗普要替换赫格塞斯，在1月前动手有充分理由。在民主党控制的参议院，提名确认将不可能。这给了特朗普一个狭窄的时间窗口，趁共和党仍掌握多数席位时推新国防部长上任。
The lame-duck window.** If Trump is going to replace Hegseth, there's a compelling reason to do it before January. Confirmations in a Democrat-controlled Senate will be impossible. That gives Trump a narrow window to push through a new defense secretary while Republicans still hold the majority.
- “新国会没人能获确认，”一位白宫高级官员说。“我们就是按这个前提在运作。”
• "No one's getting confirmed" in the new Congress, a senior White House official said. "We're operating under that premise." **4.
4. 一个潜在的“软着陆”方案。赫格塞斯还有一条可设想的退出通道：田纳西州参议员马莎·布莱克本即将出任该州州长，她将有权任命继任者填补其参议员空缺。赫格塞斯在田纳西州有住所，在那里有人脉关系。
A potential soft landing.** There also is a conceivable exit ramp for Hegseth: Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn is about to become that state'e governor, and she will have the power to appoint a replacement to her Senate seat. Hegseth owns a home in Tennessee, giving him a connection there.
- 特朗普周三对这一想法表示赞同：“我其实觉得他要是那么干会很受欢迎。但我完全没听说过这事儿。”
• Trump expressed approval for the idea Wednesday: "I actually think he'd be very popular if he did that. But I haven't heard that at all."
各方表态：当被问及可能的弹劾投票以及罢免赫格塞斯的行动时，一名发言人表示，这位部长将“绝不退缩，也不会被那些试图谋取党派私利、或在不存在不当行为的情况下发起虚假调查的政客所吓倒。”
What they're saying: Asked about a possible impeachment vote and efforts to remove Hegseth, a spokesperson said the secretary will "not back down or be deterred by politicians seeking to score partisan points or launch phony investigations where no wrongdoing exists."
- “战争部已遵守法律，我们的部长将继续坚守岗位，每一天都在战斗，以支持和捍卫宪法、领导我们的部队、保卫美国。”
• "The Department of War has followed the law and our secretary will continue to stand and fight every single day to support and defend the Constitution, lead our troops, and protect America."
幕后博弈：国会中的特朗普盟友已要求政府解职赫格塞斯，但他们承认，即使民主党夺得55个参议院席位，罢免部长的努力大概率也会失败，因为在100名参议员组成的参议院中，还需要再获得12票支持。
The intrigue: Trump allies in Congress have asked the administration to get rid of Hegseth, but they acknowledge that even if Democrats captured 55 Senate seats, an effort to remove the secretary probably would fail because it would take 12 more votes in the 100-member chamber.
- “参议院里有些共和党籍委员会主席就是讨厌皮特，但这还不够，”一名政府官员说。
• "There are some Republican chairs in the Senate who just hate Pete, but that isn't enough," an administration official said.
台前幕后：赫格塞斯的批评者向《政治报》泄露消息称，部长最新的财务披露报告显示，他的妻子为一家与国防部有联系的咨询公司工作。
Behind the scenes: Hegseth critics leaked to Politico that the secretary's new financial disclosure report showed his wife worked for a consulting firm with Defense Department ties.
- 一名赫格塞斯的盟友称针对部长的这场行动是“一次特别行动”。
• One Hegseth ally called the campaign against the secretary "an op."
- 在一份声明中，赫格塞斯所在的部门表示，他“完全遵守所有道德法律法规……任何暗示或指控与此相反的说法都是荒谬的诽谤。”
• In a statement, Hegseth's department said he's in "full compliance with all ethics laws and regulations ... Any insinuations or claims otherwise are ridiculous slander."