
美国股指期货周四走势分化,从半导体股轮动撤出的趋势延续到第二天。投资者没有理会中期选举后的初步释然性上涨,而是评估民主党掌控政府的影响。
US equity futures diverged Thursday as a rotation out of semiconductor stocks extended into a second day. Investors looked past the initial relief rally following the US midterm elections to assess the implications of a Democratic-controlled government.
纽约时间上午7点47分,标普500指数期货基本持平,纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.8%。追踪美国上市半导体股票的交易所交易基金在盘前交易中下跌超过3%,延续了周三的跌势。
Contracts on the S&P 500 Index were flat at 7:47 a.m. in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8% An exchange-traded fund tracking US-listed semiconductor stocks dropped more than 3% in premarket trading, extending losses from Wednesday.

芯片股和存储股依然承压,因市场担心民主党大获全胜可能导致美国数据中心面临更严格的监管,并拖累半导体需求。Arm Holdings Plc和Qualcomm Inc.的财报反应令人失望,加剧了抛售压力。
Chipmakers and memory stocks remained under pressure amid concerns that a Democratic sweep of Congress could bring tighter regulation of US data centers and weigh on semiconductor demand. Disappointing reactions to earnings from Arm Holdings Plc and Qualcomm Inc. added to the selling pressure.
不过,交易员告诫称,不要将大盘走势解读为投资者偏好的根本性转变。在摩根大通股票衍生品团队看来,这种轮动看起来更像是仓位驱动,而非真正的根本性轮动。
Still, traders cautioned against interpreting the broader market moves as a fundamental shift in investor preferences. To JPMorgan’s equity derivatives team, the rotation looks more like positioning-driven versus a true fundamental rotation.
摩根大通的Christina Jones在报告中写道:“我没有看到客户转向做多或追涨落后股。在我看来,市场上唯一出现真正轮动的领域是科技、媒体和电信板块。”Jones补充说,投资者明显倾向于持有优质大盘股,特别是那些有明确融资渠道的公司以及算力所有者,例如一些超大规模云服务商。
“I am not seeing customers flipping long or chasing the laggards higher,” Christina Jones at JPMorgan wrote in a note. “To me, the only pocket of the market where there is some true rotation going on is within Technology, Media and Telecommunications.”Jones added that there’s a clear propensity to own quality large caps, specifically those with clear access to financing and owners of compute, for instance, some of the hyperscalers.
大盘也可能从中期选举后有利的季节性趋势中找到支撑。据高盛集团,自1954年以来,标普500指数在中期选举后的12个月平均价格涨幅为15.5%,18次全部上涨。
The broader market may also find support from favorable seasonal trends following the midterm elections. The S&P 500 Inc. has averaged a 15.5% price gain in the 12 months following outcomes since 1954, rising in every one of the 18 instances, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

高盛策略师Ioannis Blekos在报告中写道:“自1952年以来,中期选举后的12个月是标普500指数四年周期中最强劲的一段时期。”
“Since 1952, the 12 months after a midterm election have been the strongest stretch over the four-year cycle for the S&P 500,” Goldman strategist Ioannis Blekos wrote in a note.
事实上,华尔街的交易部门正鼓励投资者增加对美国股票的敞口,押注中期选举后年底将出现反弹。
In fact, trading desks across Wall Street are encouraging investors to boost their exposure to US stocks on bets of a year-end rally post midterm elections.
随着财报季接近尾声,企业业绩也表现乐观,标普500指数中约四分之三市值的公司已公布业绩。迄今为止,84%的公司盈利超出预期,而12%的公司不及预期。
Earnings results have also been upbeat as the season approaches its final stretch, with about three-quarters of the S&P 500‘s market value having reported results. So far, 84% of companies have beaten earnings estimates, while 12% have missed.
个股方面,AppLovin Corp.股价飙升,此前这家移动应用营销公司第三季度业绩超出预期,且其给出的展望高于分析师普遍预期。Tapestry Inc.股价在盘前上涨,此前这家配饰公司第一季度业绩超出华尔街预期,管理层上调了年度指引以及资本回报预测。Cava Group Inc.下跌,因市场担忧这家地中海连锁餐厅的增长势头正在放缓,尽管三文鱼碗和烧烤皮塔饼片等新菜品颇受欢迎。
In single stocks, AppLovin Corp. shares soared after the mobile-app marketing company’s third-quarter results beat expectations and it gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus estimate. Tapestry Inc. shares rose ahead of the bell after the accessories company’s first-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations, and management boosted its annual guidance, as well as its capital returns projection. Cava Group Inc. sank on concern the Mediterranean chain’s momentum is slowing despite the popularity of new dishes such as salmon bowls and barbecue pita chips.