Exclusive: The US secretary of state is thought to be preparing for a presidential run in 2028 and will likely want to distance himself from Trump, The Independent can reveal Marco Rubio is on resignation watch from both sides of the Atlantic in the expectation he will quit to launch a bid to be the next US president, The Independent can reveal.

Insiders say the US secretary of state and White House national security adviser is preparing for the race to be the Republican nominee in November 2028, with Vice President JD Vance currently his main rival.

Even before the disastrous midterm results – resulting in the Republicans losing control of both the House and the Senate – senior party sources in the US and senior figures in the UK government told The Independent that Mr Rubio could quit his senior role in President Donald Trump’s administration.

The sources doubled down on that expectation, after the midterms gave a damning indictment of the Trump presidency, with the Democrats seizing Republican strongholds such as Kansas and Texas.

Mr Rubio is one of up to five members of Mr Trump’s current cabinet who are thought to be preparing to “run for the hills” in the aftermath of the midterms humiliation.

One Washington insider told The Independent that Mr Rubio needs to “distance himself from the Iran war and pin that one on Trump”. The Rubio ally said: “It makes complete sense for him to step down and leave the administration.

“Rubio is the leading candidate at the moment to be the [Republican] nominee. He’s definitely ahead of Vance.

“But he cannot run while he is still secretary of state, and being tied to the administration will only harm his prospects anyway.”Vice President Vance came out quickly after the disastrous results, blaming the war in Iran in a bid to distance himself from it. It is thought Mr Trump could pin the blame for the policy and subsequent midterm losses on defense secretary Pete Hegseth, with Mr Rubio and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles also in line to be potential scapegoats.

“The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone … The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Mr Vance said in scathing remarks.

”Any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”Meanwhile, it had been noticed in the UK government, and among Republicans, that Mr Rubio has already played a “quieter role” with regards to Iran – despite being the lead on US foreign policy.

The US secretary of state has made a strong impression with all three UK foreign secretaries he has worked with, including David Lammy, Yvette Cooper and now Ed Miliband. Ms Cooper is understood to regard him as “brilliantly intelligent” and “very good to engage with”.

One senior UK government source told The Independent: “We are looking to see what he will do after the midterms. It seems unlikely that he will stick around. He would make a strong presidential candidate and we expect him to run.”Another Republican source said: “Rubio will be gone after the midterms. There will be about four or five of them running for the hills.

“The country has completely turned against Trump. People cannot even say where Iran is on a map and do not get this war. “The cost of gas has really p***** people off.”

They added: “Once the Democrats control the House and Senate, we are just going to see attempts at impeachment, and nobody wants to stick around for that.”Mr Rubio’s ascension from a safe Florida Senate seat to serve as America’s top diplomat has seen him grow closer to Mr Trump, with whom he notoriously clashed during his first attempt at a White House run a decade ago.

The man – who the president once mocked as “Liddle Marco” – is now firmly ensconced in the innermost circle of Trumpworld. He enjoys a level of authority over America’s foreign policy apparatus equalled only by the late Henry Kissinger – the only other person to simultaneously serve as secretary of state and national security adviser.

Early in Mr Trump’s second term, he began taking on other roles, first being tasked with service as the acting archivist of the United States and the acting head of the US Agency for International Development in February 2025. Mr Trump appointed him as his acting national security adviser three months later.

But even as he has grown closer to Mr Trump, Mr Rubio has found himself on the outside of wide swathes of foreign policy matters normally well within the secretary of state’s remit.

On both matters of Middle East policy and the administration’s work to bring about an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Mr Rubio has largely been sidelined in favour of Mr Trump’s amateur envoys – real estate developer turned “special envoy for peace missions” Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law.

Still, Mr Rubio’s prominence in the administration’s top echelon has put him in a pole position in the race to be Mr Trump’s successor, should he choose to enter it.

But a second campaign would inevitably invite scrutiny of his role in the administration’s controversial policies in Latin America, including the campaign of airstrikes against small boats in the Caribbean alleged to be carrying narcotics, which critics have decried as extrajudicial executions.

He has also taken a leading role in overseeing the cosy and opaque relationship the White House has developed with interim Venezuelan president Delcy Rodriguez following the US-orchestrated ousting of Nicolas Maduro by way of a brazen military operation in January.

Mr Rubio has attempted to downplay speculation about his future, telling reporters in September that he had “no plans at this time” for a White House bid as he remained “100 per cent focused” on his roles in the administration. He has also indicated he would stand down if Mr Vance runs.

One longtime political operative who has extensive experience in Mr Rubio’s home state told The Independent they would not be surprised if he does exit the administration, but suggested he may hold off from doing so if it would mean helping to oversee the fall of the communist government in Cuba.

Meanwhile, an administration insider told The Independent that Mr Rubio had shown no signs of wanting to quit his post – though the official conceded the situation could change depending on the atmosphere in the White House after the midterms.

Another source close to the White House posited that dismal midterm results could prompt Mr Rubio to stay in the interests of projecting stability, including to serve as a moderating voice within the administration should Mr Trump lash out in anger.

When pressed on whether Mr Trump had any indication that his top diplomat has been planning an exit, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle responded with insults, while also accusing The Independent of “pushing baseless, false conspiracy theories... about President Trump and his administration.”“The president has assembled a united team focused on his America First agenda, and they will continue winning for the American people no matter how much it upsets the glue-sniffing hacks at The Independent,” he added.

The state department responded to a query on Mr Rubio’s plans with a similarly insult-laden statement.

Attributed to assistant secretary Dylan Johnson, the statement denouncedThe Independent’s reporting as “completely baseless fake news from made-up anonymous 'sources’”. The statement suggested the department looks forward to “revisiting this ‘report’ in the coming weeks to celebrate yet another humiliating own goal” on the part of this publication.