
墨西哥央行意外将关键利率下调至四年来最低的6.25%,并表示将维持该水平“较长时期”。央行五人董事会中有三人支持降息25个基点,两人主张维持不变。
Mexico’s central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate to a four-year low of 6.25% and said it will leave it there for “an extended period.”Three of the bank’s five-member board backed the decision to reduce the rate by a quarter percentage point, while two voted for a hold.
比索在决议公布后立即跌至盘中低点。彭博社调查的26位经济学家中,仅有6人预测会降息,其余均预期维持利率不变。
The peso sank to a session low immediatley after. Just six of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the decision while the others predicted no change.
墨西哥央行(Banxico)自5月以来一直维持借贷成本不变。10月上旬通胀率加速至3.62%,花旗调查的分析师预计年底总体通胀将达到3.9%,接近其目标区间上限。
Banxico, as the central bank is known, had kept borrowing costs unchanged since May. Inflation accelerated to 3.62% in early October, while analysts surveyed by Citi see headline inflation ending the year at 3.9%, close to the upper limit of its target range.
不过核心通胀一直在降温,表明近期总体通胀的回升可能只是暂时的。
Core inflation has been cooling, however, suggesting the recent pickup in headline inflation may prove temporary.
第三季度经济增长3.2%,为2023年以来最快增速。墨西哥央行认为经济仍在潜在产出水平以下运行,限制了需求端的通胀压力。
The economy expanded 3.2% in the third quarter, its fastest pace since 2023. Banxico has argued that the economy is still operating below its potential, limiting inflationary pressure from demand.
此次降息扩大了与美国利率的差距,美联储曾在9月加息。墨西哥决策者通常担心利差收窄会引发破坏性的资本外流。
The cut widens the gap with US rates, after the Federal Reserve raised rates in September. Mexican policymakers are often wary of narrowing the gap for fear of sparking destabilizing capital outflows.
巴克莱银行拉美经济主管Gabriel Casillas是极少数预测到此次降息的分析师之一。他在决议前表示,随着通胀向3%目标放缓,预计明年第一季度政策制定者将进一步将利率降至6%。
Gabriel Casillas, head of Latin America economics at Barclays Plc, was among the few analysts who anticipated the cut. Ahead of the decision, he said he also expects policymakers to further lower the rate to 6% in next year’s first quarter as inflation slows toward its 3% target.