当参议员当选人特洛伊·杰克逊以舒适的七个百分点优势击败参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党-缅因州）时，感到惊讶的其中包括杰克逊自己的选民。选举前的民调给他平均近 51% 的支持率。然而，在新罕布什尔大学对该州进行的最后一轮民调中，只有 47% 的杰克逊支持者认为他会击败柯林斯。
When Sen.-elect Troy Jackson defeated Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, by a comfortable seven-point margin, among those surprised were Jackson’s own voters. Polls leading up to the election gave him an average of nearly 51%. Yet in the final University of New Hampshire poll of the state, only 47% of his own backers thought he would defeat Collins.
柯林斯在选举前两天也做出了相同的预测，她指出，2020 年她在民调中“落后于对手”但最终获胜，即使当时前总统乔·拜登在该州获胜。
Collins professed the same prediction two days before the election, noting that she “lagged behind her opponent” in the polls in 2020 but won, even as former President Joe Biden carried the state.
周二没有重演这一幕。柯林斯的参议员生涯将在任职 30 年后画上句号。导致她在缅因州落选的动态，部分反映了全国性海啸般大选的动态：可负担性、民主、移民执法以及对抗唐纳德·特朗普总统等议题。但这位现任议员的失利也涉及其个人品牌的崩塌。
There was no repeat Tuesday. Collins’ career will come to an end after 30 years in the Senate. The dynamics that sunk her in Maine in part mirrored dynamics of the national tsunami: issues of affordability, democracy, immigration enforcement and standing up to President Donald Trump. But the incumbent’s loss also involved a breakdown of her brand.
柯林斯自称中间派、两党合作的主张，建立在两大支柱之上——环保和堕胎权议题——以及她独立人士的形象。本轮选举周期，这些支柱崩塌了。柯林斯比大多数共和党参议员同僚更温和，偶尔也会批评特朗普，但她的从政记录削弱了她的自我包装。
Collins’ claims of centrism and bipartisanship had rested on two pillars — the issues of environmentalism and abortion rights — and on her image of independence. This election cycle, those pillars crumbled. Collins was more moderate than most of her Republican Senate colleagues and would occasionally criticize Trump, but her record undermined her self-presentation.
柯林斯不得不应对《ProPublica》的一项调查，该调查指控她与一家夏威夷军事承包商存在权钱交易。柯林斯及其团队断然否认这些指控。但缅因州媒体——此前有人形容其为顺从——却毫不犹豫地报道了这一事件及其他不利消息。
Collins had to deal with a ProPublica investigation alleging a pay-to-play scheme involving her and a Hawaii-based military contractor. Collins and her staff categorically denied the accusations. But the Maine media, which some previously characterized as compliant, readily reported on this and other less-than-flattering stories.
柯林斯的抱负并未延伸至系统性变革，而是强调诸如为码头和消防局提供资金等事项。杰克逊的主张更具变革性：遏制亿万富翁、建立全民医疗体系等。与此同时，杰克逊以“我们不能吃路盐”这类言论，巧妙地瓦解了柯林斯对城镇建设项目的强调——当时民众更担心如何解决家庭的食物和取暖需求。柯林斯吹嘘自己作为参院拨款委员会主席的权力，杰克逊则质问她为何不利用这份权力阻止特朗普的议程。
Collins’ aspirations didn’t extend to systemic change but emphasized such things as funding piers and firehouses. Jackson’s message was more transformational: countering billionaires, a healthcare system for all, etc. Simultaneously, with remarks like, “We can’t eat road salt,” Jackson deftly dismantled Collins’ emphasis on projects for towns at a time when people were more worried about taking care of their family’s food and heating needs. While Collins touted her power as chair of Senate Appropriations, Jackson asked Collins why she didn’t use her power to stop the Trump agenda.
柯林斯及其盟友还对杰克逊的家庭和智力发表了贬损言论。在缅因州，负面人身攻击可能适得其反。杰克逊竞选团队抓住柯林斯一则广告中的阶级歧视倾向——广告将前州参议院议长描绘成只配送柴火的料——反击柯林斯不可信、不了解缅因州民众的需求。
Collins and her allies also made derogatory statements about Jackson’s family and his intelligence. Negative personal attacks can backfire in Maine. The Jackson campaign capitalized on classism in a Collins ad portraying the former state Senate president as qualified only to deliver wood by criticizing Collins’ untrustworthiness and her not recognizing Mainers’ needs.
强大的筹款优势也不足以挽救柯林斯。毫无疑问，这将成为缅因州历史上花费最昂贵的参议院竞选，但部分资金花得并不明智。例如，埃隆·马斯克投入的数百万美元资助了宣传邮件，歌颂柯林斯帮助打造了“保守派最高法院” —— 这与吸引分裂票选民的信息背道而驰。
A robust fundraising edge was not enough to save Collins either. No doubt this will go down as the most expensive Senate race in Maine, but some of the funds were spent unwisely. For example, Elon Musk’s millions included mailers celebrating Collins helping to create a “conservative Supreme Court” — the opposite of a message designed to appeal to split-ticket voters.
柯林斯的落败在不完美地映照着她的导师、缅因州前参议员玛格丽特·蔡斯·史密斯的遭遇。1971年，柯林斯作为高中生访问华盛顿时会见并交谈过史密斯，后者当时正结束第四个任期。但1972年，史密斯败给了民主党人比尔·哈撒韦 —— 主要因为她在越战问题上显得脱离民意，正如柯林斯今年在物价负担能力和对抗特朗普问题上显得与民意脱节一样。
Collins’ loss imperfectly mirrored what happened to her mentor, former Sen. Margaret Chase Smith of Maine. While visiting Washington as a high school student in 1971, Collins met and spoke to Smith, who was finishing her fourth term in the chamber. But in 1972 Smith lost to Democrat Bill Hathaway — in large part because she seemed out of touch on the Vietnam War, just as Collins this year had seemed out of step on affordability and standing up to Trump.
史密斯离开参议院后，在柯林斯早期政治生涯中曾为她提供建议。然而，考虑到史密斯至今仍是缅因州政治偶像的原因，她们之间的关系颇具讽刺意味。班戈的联邦大楼以史密斯的名字命名；大楼门厅里展示着她1950年发表的“良心宣言”演讲。在那次演讲中，史密斯挑战了前参议员约瑟夫·麦卡锡的“红色恐慌”言论，并宣称她“不想看到共和党骑着诽谤的四骑士——恐惧、无知、偏执和污蔑——驶向政治胜利”。
After Smith left the Senate, she advised Collins during the latter’s early political career. Their relationship, however, is ironic, given why Smith remains a Maine political icon. The federal building in Bangor is named after Smith; its lobby features her Declaration of Conscience speech, delivered in 1950. In that address, Smith challenged the “red scare” rhetoric of former Sen. Joseph McCarthy and proclaimed that she “did not want to see the Republican party ride to political victory on the Four Horsemen of Calumly — Fear, Ignorance, Bigotry and Smear.”
随着时间的推移，选民们越来越认为柯林斯不愿对抗这些同样的威胁。选举后的第二天，她表达了对缅因州选民的不满。
Over time, voters have increasingly seen Collins as unwilling to counter those same menaces. The day after the election, she aired her frustrations with Mainers.
“所有人都无视一个事实，那就是在第二次弹劾审判中我投票认定他有罪，”柯林斯对《纽约时报》说。“还能有比这更大的决裂吗？这永远都不够。我想要结果，而他们想要愤怒的言辞。”又或者，他们想要的是一个与特朗普投票一致率低于96%的人。
“Everybody ignores the fact that I voted to convict him in the second impeachment trial,” Collins told The New York Times. “What bigger break could there be? It is never enough. I want results and they want angry rhetoric.”Or perhaps they wanted someone who voted with Trump less than 96% of the time.
尽管她2020年的胜利令人惊讶，但柯林斯可能从那场胜利中吸取了错误的教训。她获胜的幅度并不重要，更重要的是她的得票率从2014年的69%下降到仅51%。六年前，她还可以拿自己投票反对废除《平价医疗法案》来说事。尽管她此前已经投票支持布雷特·卡瓦诺和另外三位将推翻罗诉韦德案的法官，但该判决本身尚未被推翻。疫情限制了她的民主党对手举办活动和拉票的能力，而柯林斯则攻击对手，并宣扬自己在帮助企业生存方面的领导力。
As surprising as her 2020 triumph was, it may be that Collins took the wrong lessons from that victory. The margin of her win mattered less than her share of the vote dropping from 69% in 2014 to just 51%. Six years ago, she could point to her vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act. Though she had already voted for Brett Kavanaugh and three other justices who would strike down Roe, the decision itself had not yet been overturned. The pandemic limited her Democratic opponent’s ability to hold events and canvassing, while Collins attacked her and touted her leadership in helping businesses survive.
今年的政治和经济环境都糟糕得多，而且选民也变了。许多曾投票给拜登和柯林斯的选民已准备改投他人。人口结构的变化同样重要。不仅更多进步派年轻选民进入 electorate，年长、更保守的选民离世，而且2020年至2025年间，近8万人迁入缅因州，其中大部分来自蓝州。
Not only were the political and economic environments far worse this year, but voters had changed. Many Biden-Collins voters were ready to vote for someone else. Demographic change mattered, too. Not only had more progressive, young voters entered the electorate and older, more conservative ones passed away, but close to 80,000 people, largely from blue states, moved to Maine between 2020 and 2025.
最后，杰克逊作为一位坚韧的候选人，契合了竞选需求，值得肯定。格雷厄姆·普拉特纳退出竞选后，杰克逊是最接近普拉特纳民粹主义观点的选择。与普拉特纳不同，杰克逊拥有长期的成就记录、政治领导经验和组织能力，并且是真正的工人阶级出身。
Finally, Jackson deserves credit as a resilient candidate who fit the brief. After Graham Platner dropped out of the race, Jackson was the option closest to Platner’s populist perspectives. And unlike Platner, Jackson had a long history of accomplishments, political leadership, organizing and was authentically working-class.
在其他候选人支持者对杰克逊如何赢得提名颇有微词之后，政治注意力很快转移了。缅因州民主党团结起来，与工会合作开展选民外联工作。由普拉特纳支持者发起、志愿者领导的团体“人民驱动的缅因”也出力支持杰克逊。与柯林斯的竞选运作相比，杰克逊的竞选活动更具吸引力、更有活力、也更灵活应变。
After some grumbling among other candidates’ supporters about how Jackson won the nomination, political attention quickly moved on. The Maine Democratic Party came together and worked with unions on voter outreach. A volunteer-led group started by Platner supporters, People Powered Maine, pitched in to support Jackson. Compared to Collins’ operation, Jackson’s campaign was more engaging, kinetic and adaptable.
柯林斯的落败对缅因州政治具有长期影响。除非该州选民发生重大转变，否则唯一能在全州选举中获胜的共和党人，是与该党MAGA基本盘没有关联的人，但该党的MAGA基本盘不会提名这类候选人。参议员安格斯·金的任期将在四年后结束，现年82岁的他不太可能再次参选，民主党人在赢得该席位方面占据优势。而该席位的下一任占据者是又一个苏珊·柯林斯——更不用说又一个玛格丽特·蔡斯·史密斯——的可能性微乎其微，几乎为零。
Collins’ loss has long-term ramifications for Maine politics. Unless the state’s voters shift significantly, the only sort of Republican who can win statewide is someone who is not associated with the party’s MAGA base, but the party’s MAGA base will not nominate that type of candidate. With Sen. Angus King’s term up in four years, and the 82-year-old unlikely to run again, a Democrat has the advantage in winning his seat. And the odds that the seat’s next occupant is another Susan Collins — let alone another Margaret Chase Smith — are slim to none.