2026年中期选举对民主党来说显然全面大胜。但他们在众议院的多数席位正趋向于历史性数字。
The 2026 midterm elections have clearly been very good for Democrats across the board. But their House majority is trending toward historic numbers.
CNN预测，民主党已赢得250多个众议院席位，净增约40个席位。等所有选举尘埃落定，他们可能达到甚至超过260个总席位。
CNN is projecting that Democrats have won more than 250 House seats, with a net gain of around 40 seats. And they could hit or even exceed 260 total seats by the time all is said and done.
这将使他们拥有约85个席位的多数优势，并成为20世纪90年代初以来民主党在众议院最大的多数席位——那是数十年民主党主导众议院的尾声。
That would give them around an 85-seat majority and make it the biggest Democratic majority since the early 1990s — the tail end of decades of Democratic domination of the House.
周四下午又翻转更多席位后，民主党已在259个选区获胜或领先。如果这些优势保持，共和党最终将获得174个席位（路易斯安那州的两场竞选将进入决选）。
After flipping more seats on Thursday afternoon, Democrats have won or hold leads in 259 districts. If those margins hold, Republicans would end up with 174 (two Louisiana races are headed to runoffs).
民主党在六个选区的领先优势约为一个百分点或更少：南卡罗来纳州第1选区、科罗拉多州第4选区、佛罗里达州第9选区、明尼苏达州第1选区、北卡罗来纳州第5选区和田纳西州第4选区。
Democrats lead by around a point or less in six districts: South Carolina’s 1st, Colorado’s 4th, Florida’s 9th, Minnesota’s 1st, North Carolina’s 5th and Tennessee’s 4th.
如果民主党达到260个席位，将是自1991年至1993年以来他们在众议院最大的多数席位，当时他们拥有267个席位。他们在下一届国会拥有258个席位，并在前总统巴拉克·奥巴马2008年大胜带领民主党执政后拥有257个席位。
If Democrats get to 260 seats, it would be their biggest House majority since 1991-93, when they had 267. They had 258 seats in the following Congress and 257 after former President Barack Obama’s big win in 2008 swept Democrats into power.
通过赢得250多个席位，民主党的众议院多数席位已经大于自大萧条以来任何共和党的众议院多数席位。（自那时以来，共和党的最高纪录是2014年选举后的247个席位。）如果他们赢得260个席位，将意味着民主党赢得了60%的可用众议院席位。
By winning more than 250 seats, Democrats’ House majority is already bigger than any Republican House majority since the Great Depression. (The GOP’s high watermark since then was 247 seats after the 2014 election). If they won 260, it would mean Democrats have won 60% of the available House seats.
相比之下，他们赢得了54%至56%的参议院席位（取决于阿拉斯加州和密西西比州最后两场竞选的结果）。看起来，等所有选举尘埃落定，民主党将获得大约50个席位。如果他们赢得目前领先的259个席位，将是净增44个席位。
That’s compared to winning between 54% and 56% of the Senate (depending upon how the last two races in Alaska and Mississippi shake out). It looks as though Democrats will have gained somewhere around 50 seats by the time all races are settled. If they win the 259 seats where they’re currently ahead, it would be a net gain of 44 seats.
这将是过去半个世纪中第三大增幅，仅次于2010年（共和党增63个席位）和1994年（共和党增54个席位）。
That would be the third-largest gain in the past half-century, behind 2010 (Republicans gained 63 seats) and 1994 (Republicans gained 54).
这也将超过民主党最近几次中期选举的最大胜绩：2018年选举（41个席位）和2006年选举（31个席位）。但深入细节来看，易手席位的数量可能比所有这些都更具意义。
It would also surpass Democrats’ biggest recent midterms: the 2018 election (41 seats) and the 2006 election (31 seats). But drilling into the details, the number of seats flipped might be even more significant than all of those.
共和党在2010年翻转了如此之多席位，很大程度上是因为民主党在2008年选举后拥有巨大的多数席位。这意味着共和党在保守倾向地区有大量“易得之果”可争取。
The GOP flipped so many seats in 2010 in large part because Democrats had such a big majority after the 2008 election. That meant Republicans had lots of low-hanging fruit in conservative-leaning territory to go after.
共和党在1994年选举中也在削减民主党近260个席位的多数优势。
Republicans were also chipping away at a nearly 260-seat Democratic majority in the 1994 election.
相比之下，2026年选举开始时，众议院几乎是势均力敌：共和党220个选区，民主党215个。民主党还面临这样一个事实，即共和党重新划定了几个选区地图，以给自己争取更多保守倾向地区（但这并未奏效）。
By contrast, the 2026 election began with nearly an even split in the House: Republicans at 220 districts to Democrats’ 215. Democrats were also contending with the fact that Republicans redrew several of their maps to give themselves more conservative-leaning territory (it didn’t work).
另一个重要指标是普选票。目前，民主党领先约12个百分点——随着更多选票报告，尤其是来自西部、倾向民主党的州的选票，这一差距可能会扩大。
The other big metric here is the popular vote. Currently, Democrats lead by about 12 percentage points — a margin which could grow in the coming days as more votes are reported, especially from western, Democratic-leaning states.
不过，这也有几个注意事项。加州的前两名初选制度意味着，少数几场选举是共和党人对阵共和党人、民主党人对阵民主党人——而不是所有435个选区都包含两大政党的选票——这在一定程度上扭曲了数据。但总体而言，这仍然是一个很好的衡量标准。
There are some caveats with that. It’s skewed somewhat by the fact that California’s top-two primary system means that a handful of races are Republicans-versus-Republican and Democrat-versus-Democrat — rather than having all 435 districts include votes for both major parties. But it’s still overall a good measure.
根据布鲁金斯学会的数据，自1982年以来，这将是第二次有政党以两位数的优势赢得众议院普选票——另一次是2008年奥巴马选举（民主党领先11个百分点）。
This will mark only the second time since 1982 that a party won the House popular vote by double digits — with the other one being the Obama election of 2008 (an 11-point Democratic margin), according to data from the Brookings Institution.
而上次任何一个政党以至少13个百分点的优势赢得众议院普选票，还是在水门事件后的1976年选举。
And the last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 13 points was in the post-Watergate election of 1976.