在今日版中，Scott Bland 盘点了民主党在众议院的得失规模。此外，Alexandra Marquez 审视了该党中期选举的成功可能如何影响下一次总统竞选。—— Adam Wollner 衡量蓝色浪潮 分析 | Scott Bland 民主党在周二选举中的表现显然很大——要达到估计的259个众议院席位，离不开相当大的全国优势。历史回顾显示，结果同样巨大。
In today’s edition, Scott Bland takes stock of the scope of Democrats’ gains in the House. Plus, Alexandra Marquez examines how the party’s midterm success could affect the next presidential contest. — Adam Wollner Sizing up the blue wave Analysis by Scott Bland Democrats’ performance in Tuesday’s election was obviously big — you can’t reach an estimated 259 House seats without sizable national margins. A historical look shows just how massive the results were, too.
民主党有望创下过去50年来第二大的众议院普选票优势。这也将是自1974年以来一个政党在中期选举中取得的最大优势，当时该国在理查德·尼克松因水门事件辞职后的首次选举中惩罚了共和党。随着更多选票仍在计票中，尤其是在倾向民主党的加利福尼亚州，众议院民主党候选人已获得全国选票的55.3%，而共和党为43.3%。
Democrats are on track for the second-biggest House popular vote edge in the last 50 years. This will also be the largest midterm margin for one party since 1974, when the country punished the Republican Party in the first election after Richard Nixon resigned following the Watergate scandal. With more votes still left to count, especially in Democratic-leaning California, House Democratic candidates have captured 55.3% of the national vote, compared to 43.3% for Republicans.
这是一个12个百分点的优势——超过了民主党在2008年（10.5个百分点）或2018年（8.6个百分点）的优势，也超过了共和党在其浪潮年份1994年（6.8个百分点）、2010年（6.6个百分点）和2014年（5.8个百分点）的优势。Ben Kamisar、Sarah Sternhagen 和 Stephen Pettigrew 重点关注了NBC新闻决策台在选举前评为“战场选区”的众议院选举中的变化。
That’s an 12-point margin — more than Democrats in 2008 (10.5 points) or 2018 (8.6 points) and more than Republicans in their wave years of 1994 (6.8 points), 2010 (6.6 points) and 2014 (5.8 points). Ben Kamisar, Sarah Sternhagen and Stephen Pettigrew zeroed in on the shifts in the House races that were rated as “battleground districts” by NBC News’ Decision Desk before the election.
根据对28个战场选区中21个选区（至少95%的预计选票已计入）的选举结果审查，平均“战场”选区的优势与2024年总统选举在该选区的优势相比，向民主党移动了近17个百分点。两个最大的转变发生在得克萨斯州南部，拉丁裔选民中戏剧性的民主党改善助力了大规模的国会胜利。新当选的民主党人可能成为2028年总统竞选的权力经纪人 文 | Alexandra Marquez 2026年中期选举尚未完全结束，但2028年总统竞选可能很快就要开始。
The average “battleground” district’s margin moved almost 17 percentage points toward Democrats when compared to the 2024 presidential margin there, according to a review of the election results in 21 of the 28 battlegrounds where at least 95% of the expected vote is in. The two biggest swings came in South Texas, where a dramatic Democratic improvement among Latino voters helped power massive congressional victories. Newly elected Democrats could become 2028 presidential power brokers By Alexandra Marquez The 2026 midterm elections are not quite over, but the 2028 presidential race may soon get underway.
周二晚间，民主党在全国各地的选举中取得压倒性胜利，在提前举行民主党总统初选的州，选民们也选出了一批新的“掌权者”。未来两年，民主党总统初选日程中排在前六位的州中，有五个州即将迎来新的民主党州长或参议员。这些领导人的背书对候选人来说可能是重大筹码，对选民来说也是重要信号，尤其是在那些几十年来首次在全州范围内选出民主党人的州。
And with sweeping victories for Democrats in races across the country Tuesday night, voters in states with early Democratic presidential primaries also elected a new class of kingmakers. New Democratic governors or senators will soon take over in five of the six states that will lead the party’s presidential primary calendar in two years. Those leaders’ endorsements could be major prizes for candidates and signals for voters, especially in states that elected Democrats statewide for the first time in decades.
南卡罗来纳州就是最典型的例子，安妮·安德鲁斯在那里当选参议员，成为自1998年以来南卡罗来纳州首位当选参议院的民主党人。八月，民主党全国委员会投票决定，将南卡罗来纳州列为2028年总统初选日程中的第一个州。从历史上看，当该州在日程中排在第三位时，民主党众议员詹姆斯·克莱伯恩的支持就被认为能左右初选。
The prime example is South Carolina, where Annie Andrews became the first Democrat elected to the Senate there since 1998. In August, the Democratic National Committee voted to make South Carolina the first state on its presidential primary calendar in 2028. Historically, when the state was in the third spot on the calendar, Democratic Rep. James Clyburn’s backing was known to sway primaries.
他被认为推动了乔·拜登总统2020年竞选活动取得胜利。现在，安德鲁斯可能与克莱伯恩一起，成为寻求提名未来总统的民主党选民的全州性声音。“我昨晚跟安德鲁斯提起这事。我说，‘你知道吗，你将在所有2028年的人中非常受欢迎，’”前民主党全国委员会主席兼南卡罗来纳州民主党主席杰米·哈里森周三对NBC新闻说。
He is credited with propelling President Joe Biden’s campaign to victory in 2020. Now, Andrews could join Clyburn as a statewide voice for Democratic voters looking to nominate a future president. “I mentioned it to Annie last night. I said, ‘You know, you’re going to be extremely popular with all the 2028 folks,’” Jamie Harrison, former chair of the Democratic National Committee and the South Carolina Democratic Party, told NBC News on Wednesday.
“她只是笑了起来。但她会的。”阅读更多 → 相关：罗·卡纳众议员的盟友为2028年总统竞选发起“草拟”竞选活动，作者：乔纳森·艾伦 目前来自政治部的报道就到这里。
“She just started laughing. But she will be.”Read more → Related: Rep. Ro Khanna allies launch a draft campaign for the 2028 presidential race, by Jonathan Allen That’s all From the Politics Desk for now.