民主党已翻转众议院和参议院。尽管仍有选票待清点、部分选情尚未决出，但民主党的胜利无疑是巨大的——至少54个参议院席位，众议院约258席。在参议院，民主党在堪萨斯州（该州自1932年以来从未选出民主党参议员）和得克萨斯州（该州自1988年以来从未选出民主党参议员）取得了出人意料的胜利。与此同时，众议院的胜选还扩展到了共和党近期通过不公正选区划分所划定的选区。在全州和国会选区的竞选中，民主党在美国一些几代人以来本党都无竞争力的地区取得了成功。
The Democratic Party has flipped the House and the Senate. While there are still votes left to be counted and races yet to be determined, the Democrats' victory is unambiguously big – at least 54 Senate seats and approximately 258 seats in the House. In the Senate, Democrats won unexpected victories in Kansas (which had not elected a Democratic senator since 1932) and Texas (which had not elected one since 1988). Meanwhile, House wins stretched into districts recently gerrymandered by Republicans. Across state and congressional races, Democrats found success in parts of the United States where the party had not been competitive in generations.
尽管总统所属政党在中期选举中历来失利，但共和党此次的损失规模是数十年来最大的之一，而特朗普政府历史性的腐败、伊朗战争、不得人心的关税，以及对选民并不关心的虚荣工程——从舞厅到拱门——的专注，更加剧了这一局面。
While the president's party historically loses midterm elections, the scale of Republican losses is among the largest in decades, exacerbated by the Trump administration's historic corruption, war in Iran, unpopular tariffs, and focus on vanity projects – from ballrooms to arches – that aren't voter priorities.
这场失利将对特朗普政府最后两年以及2028年总统选举产生深远影响。但在展望下一次选举之前，我想评估一下我对中期选举的三大预测中哪些说对了、哪些说错了。以及这一记录对特朗普剩余白宫任期意味着什么。
It's a loss that will have far-reaching ramifications for the final two years of the Trump administration and the 2028 presidential election. But before looking ahead to the next election, I want to evaluate what I got right and wrong in my top three calls for the midterms. And what that record means for the remainder of Trump's time in the Oval Office.
预测一：民主党将同时赢得众议院（至少20个席位翻蓝）和参议院（多数席位在51至53席之间）。如果我错了，那是因为我在预测中过于谨慎。
Call 1: Democrats will win both the House (with at least 20 seats flipping blue) and the Senate (with a majority between 51 and 53 seats). And if I'm wrong, it's because I was too cautious in my prediction.
在周一的“快评”中，我阐述了对蓝色浪潮的预期，其推动因素是特朗普的低支持率以及全球范围内选举中反现任者的趋势。我搞错了差距幅度，但错误的方向是对的。民主党的表现甚至超出了乐观预测。
In my Quick Take on Monday, I laid out my expectations for a blue wave, spurred by Trump's low approval ratings and the global anti-incumbent trend in elections. I got the margin wrong but the direction of my error right. Democrats exceeded even optimistic predictions for their performance.
詹姆斯·塔拉里科不仅在得克萨斯州参议院选举中击败了丑闻缠身的共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿，吉娜·伊诺霍萨还击败了长期担任共和党现任州长的格雷格·阿博特。民主党人凭借前州长罗伊·库珀的竞选势头翻转了北卡罗来纳州，但他们还成功拿下了南卡罗来纳州这个难度大得多的席位，安妮·安德鲁斯击败了参议员达琳·格雷厄姆。
Not only did James Talarico defeat scandal-plagued Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but Gina Hinojosa also defeated longtime Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. Democrats flipped North Carolina on the strength of former Governor Roy Cooper's campaign, but they also managed to pick up the much harder seat in South Carolina, with Annie Andrews defeating Senator Darline Graham.
民主党人不仅赢下了他们锁定的众议院席位，还翻转了许多几乎无人认为有竞争力的席位——比如北卡罗来纳州第9选区，常年参选的民主党人理查德·奥赫达（此前曾在西弗吉尼亚州参选）在那里击败了众议员理查德·哈德森，后者是全国共和党国会委员会主席。
Democrats didn't just win their target House seats, they flipped many that few thought competitive – such as North Carolina's 9th District, where perennial Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda (who'd previously run in West Virginia) defeated Rep. Richard Hudson, Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
判断二：特朗普可能会声称选举被操纵，但他对此无能为力。我们将举行自由公正的选举，并在国会实现权力的和平交接。
Call 2: Trump might claim the election was rigged, but he won't be able to do much about it. We will have free-and-fair elections and a peaceful transition of power in Congress.
在周二之前，有相当多的猜测认为特朗普会试图操纵中期选举：夺取投票箱、派遣移民及海关执法局人员进入投票站，或拒绝让新当选的国会议员就职。我的看法是，特朗普没有能力——也没有专注力——去推翻选举结果。对他的权力的制约，包括州对选举的控制以及持怀疑态度的法院，将阻止任何无视选民意愿的认真企图。
Before Tuesday, there was a considerable amount of speculation that Trump would attempt to rig the midterms: seizing ballot boxes, sending ICE into polling places, or refusing to seat newly elected members of Congress. My take was that Trump did not have the ability – or focus – to overturn the results. The checks on his authority, including state control of elections and skeptical courts, would prevent any serious effort to ignore the will of the voters.
即便在中期选举之前，已有证据支持这一判断。在《纽约时报》报道称与前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉的竞选活动有关联的人士，在阿拉斯加州参议院选举中幕后操盘了另一位名叫丹·沙利文的候选人、与现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文竞争之后，特朗普政府试图阻止该州认证现任参议员的败选结果——前提是选票上多出来的那位沙利文决定了选举结果。一名联邦法官驳回了这起诉讼，沙利文参议员表示他将接受选举结果——而在这场势均力敌的竞选中，我们至今仍未得知结果。
Even before the midterms, evidence backed up this call. After reporting by the New York Times revealed that individuals associated with former Congresswoman Mary Peltola's campaign were behind the running of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race against incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, the Trump administration sought to prevent the state from certifying a loss by the incumbent senator, if the additional Sullivan on the ballot decided the election. A federal judge threw out the suit, and Sen. Sullivan stated he would accept the election results – which we still haven't learned in a razor-tight race.
政府还在选举前起诉了加利福尼亚州，声称——并未提供多少证据——该州选民名册上有2万名选民是非公民，他们的选票不应被计入。在下级法院败诉后，司法部将案件上诉至最高法院，最高法院迅速驳回了请求。
The administration also sued the state of California before the election, claiming – without offering much evidence – that 20,000 voters on the state's rolls were noncitizens whose ballots shouldn't be counted. After losing in the lower courts, the Department of Justice took the case to the Supreme Court, which quickly rejected the request.
阿拉斯加、加利福尼亚以及全国其他地区的选举日进展顺利，没有证据表明民主党人明年1月就职会面临任何阻碍。即便特朗普政府想要推翻选举结果，共和党惨败的规模也使这几乎不可能做到。值得肯定的是，特朗普迅速确认他将接受结果，并寻求与民主党人合作。（他还声称共和党之所以落败，是因为他本人不在选票上。）民主——尽管有其种种混乱——仍然能够在美国实现和平、有效的权力交接。
Election Day went smoothly in Alaska, California, and the rest of the country, and there's no evidence to suggest that there will be any impediment to Democrats taking office in January. Even if the Trump administration wanted to overturn the election results, the scale of the Republicans' loss makes it all but impossible to do so. To his credit, Trump quickly confirmed he would accept the outcome and seek to work with Democrats. (He also claimed Republicans lost because he was not on the ballot.) Democracy – for all its messiness – is still able to deliver peaceful, effective transfers of power in the United States.
判断三：特朗普的巅峰期已过。中期选举将为此提供证明，并加速其影响力的衰落。
Call 3: We're past peak Trump. The midterms will offer proof of that and accelerate the decline of his influence.
数月来，我一直主张，特朗普破坏国际秩序的能力已经过了顶峰。在周二之前，我会论证说，随着他的任期只剩两年、国内政治资本急剧流失、最高法院对其权力的制约不断增强，以及他在伊朗的战争适得其反，特朗普已无法再左右全球事件的走向。这并未消除与他总统任期相关的所有风险——尤其是其政府排除对人工智能实施重大监管，而安全事故却在不断增加——但特朗普在国际舞台上的影响力已成为一项不断贬值的资产。
For months, I've made the case that we are past the peak of Trump's ability to disrupt the international order. Before Tuesday, I would have argued that with only two years left in his term, cratering domestic political capital, increasing checks on his power from the Supreme Court, and the backfire of his war in Iran, Trump was no longer able to dictate the course of global events. That did not eliminate all risk associated with his presidency – especially as his administration rules out significant regulation on artificial intelligence, while safety incidents mount – but Trump's power on the international stage had become a wasting asset.
中期选举之后，我对这一判断更加确信。除了新当选的众议院和参议院民主党人的监督之外，共和党的广泛失利将增加特朗普本党成员脱离其阵营的可能性。这并不意味着大批众议院和参议院共和党人会立即开始批评政府在伊朗的行动或其移民执法政策——特朗普在共和党初选中仍将保有相当大的影响力。但会有越来越多的共和党人愿意对特朗普政府的论调提出异议，因为他们要在2028年之前寻找更有效的讯息。
After the midterms, I'm only more confident in that take. Beyond the oversight from newly elected House and Senate Democrats, the widespread losses by the Republicans will increase the likelihood that members of Trump's own party will defect from his coalition. That does not mean that a wave of House and Senate Republicans will immediately begin criticizing the administration's actions in Iran or its immigration enforcement policies – Trump will maintain considerable influence in Republican primaries. But there will be a gradual increase in Republicans willing to balk at the Trump administration's talking points as they search for a more effective message ahead of 2028.
这一态势将因一个令人不安却无可辩驳的事实而加剧：80岁的特朗普正在失去连贯性。与拜登总统在任期后期的情况颇为相似，特朗普在竞选活动中越来越反复无常——据《纽约时报》的一项分析，他在一次演讲中多次重复同一个故事，其“漫无边际或令人困惑的离题”次数是他十年前的两倍多。还有无数时刻，这位总统似乎把内心想法直接说了出来，包括反复评论身边男男女女的身材，以及对索马里裔美国人发表种族主义长篇攻击。
That dynamic will be heightened by the uncomfortable but unmistakable fact that Trump is losing coherence at the age of 80. Much like President Biden in the later years of his presidency, Trump was increasingly erratic on the campaign trail – repeating the same story multiple times within one speech and making more than twice as many "rambling or confusing digressions" as he did ten years ago, according to an analysis from the New York Times. There have also been numerous moments in which the president appeared to say his internal thoughts out loud, including repeatedly commenting on the physiques of men and women around him and launching a racist tirade against Somali Americans.
我无法评估特朗普的精神状态，但我可以评估公众认为他反应变慢的政治影响（今年早些时候，近半数国人已经认为特朗普出现了认知衰退）。对拜登总统心智敏锐度的担忧曾引发党内对他的反叛，最终拖垮了他的连任竞选。特朗普不能竞选第三个任期（不管史蒂夫·班农怎么说），但希望在2028年及以后领导共和党的共和党人仍然可以抛弃他。
I can't evaluate Trump's mental state, but I can evaluate the political implications of the public perceiving him as having lost a step (with nearly half of the country already having thought Trump was experiencing cognitive decline earlier this year). Concerns over President Biden's mental acuity led to a revolt in his party against him, ultimately sinking his reelection campaign. Trump can't run for a third term (no matter what Steve Bannon says), but Republicans hoping to lead the party in 2028 and beyond can still desert him.
会有一些内阁成员愿意与特朗普保持密切关系——或是出于真正的忠诚，或是想利用职位谋取商业机会——但那些谋求未来民选政治生涯的政客，例如总统职位的有力竞争者副总统JD·万斯和国务卿马可·鲁比奥，将面临展现自身独立性的压力。而共和党内部进一步的内斗只会加深特朗普的跛脚鸭处境。
There will be some cabinet members interested in staying close to Trump – due to genuine loyalty or a desire to exploit commercial opportunity through their office – but politicians angling for a future in elected politics, such as presidential hopefuls Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will face pressure to show their independence. And further infighting within the Republican Party will only entrench Trump's lame-duck status.
中期选举已经结束，但特朗普时代尚未终结。不过，它已进入一个新阶段：共和党人正竭力重建曾在2024年将他们推上台的联盟，而民主党人则希望他们的中期选举大胜能为2028年的胜利提供跳板。这意味着，我们越来越多地谈论的是一个后特朗普时代的生活——而这个国家的政治已被他主导了十多年。这个未来是什么样子，对美国人和全世界来说都仍是未知数。
The midterms are over, but the Trump era is not yet. It has, however, entered a new phase, with Republicans laboring to rebuild the coalition that propelled them to office in 2024 and Democrats hoping their midterms landslide offers them a springboard to victory in 2028. That means we're increasingly talking about life after Trump in a country whose politics has been dominated by him for over ten years now. What that future looks like is still unknown, to America and to the world.
但有一件事是已知的：中期选举中的选民们果断地否定了一位将自己凌驾于国家之上的总统。
But one thing is known: voters in the midterms have offered a decisive repudiation of a president who has put himself above the country.