英国气象局表示，一场前所未有的厄尔尼诺现象有望助推明年大气二氧化碳浓度出现潜在的创纪录增长，因为高温和干旱削弱了自然碳汇。
An unprecedented El Niño is poised to help drive a potential record increase in the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide next year, as heat and drought weaken natural carbon sinks, according to the UK Met Office.
厄尔尼诺现象改变降雨模式，并可能在热带森林和泥炭地引发干旱和更热的条件，减缓植物生长和二氧化碳吸收，同时通过植物呼吸和野火增加分解和碳释放。这叠加在化石燃料燃烧和毁林造成的人为排放之上，加速了大气中二氧化碳的积累。
El Niño alters rainfall patterns and can fuel drought and hotter conditions across tropical forests and peatlands, slowing plant growth and CO2 absorption, while increasing decomposition and carbon releases through plant respiration and wildfires. That adds to human-driven emissions from fossil-fuel burning and deforestation, accelerating the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere.
英国气象局在一份报告中称，预计这将把2027年夏威夷冒纳罗亚观测站的年平均二氧化碳浓度较今年估计水平推高3.51百万分率，上下浮动0.52百万分率。这将是英国气象局预测的最大年度增幅，并可与2024年因野火排放推高的3.57百万分率的创纪录增幅相媲美。
That’s expected to push the annual average CO2 concentration at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii in 2027 up by 3.51 parts per million from this year’s estimated level, give or take 0.52 parts per million, the Met Office said in a report. That would be the biggest ever annual increase forecast by the Met Office, and be comparable to the record jump of 3.57 parts per million in 2024, which was boosted by wildfire emissions, it said.
报告警告称，大气二氧化碳的预期增加“加剧了与将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度相一致路径的日益背离”。
The expected increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is “adding to the growing divergence from pathways consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C,” it warned.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局预测，当前的厄尔尼诺现象将在年底前达到顶峰，预计将削弱南美亚马逊雨林以及中美洲和东南亚主要森林的碳吸收能力。
The current El Niño, which the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts will peak toward the end of the year, is expected to weaken carbon absorption across the Amazon rainforest in South America and major forests in Central America and Southeast Asia.
英国气象局科学家艾米莉·赖特在电子邮件中表示：“人为排放仍在推动长期增长，但植物、土壤和海洋通常会吸收我们排放的一部分二氧化碳。厄尔尼诺事件减少了它们总体的吸收量，导致更多二氧化碳留在大气中。”
“Human emissions are still driving the long-term increase, but plants, soils and oceans normally absorb some of the CO2 we release,” UK Met Office scientist Emily Wright said by email. “El Niño events reduce how much they absorb overall, leaving more CO2 in the atmosphere.”