字号·· | 护眼
日经

亚洲AI供应链与美国数据中心将经受住“蓝色浪潮”Asia's AI supply chain and US data centers set to weather 'blue wave'

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

吉娜·伊诺霍萨成为自1990年以来首位赢得得克萨斯州州长选举的民主党人,她的竞选活动主要聚焦于民众对数据中心的愤怒情绪。(日经合成图/图片来源:路透社与美联社)Gina Hinojosa became the first Democrat to win a Texas gubernatorial election since 1990, after a campaign that focused heavily on outrage over data centers. (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Reuters and AP)

加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托/首尔/台北/东京 —— 分析师表示,本周美国中期选举中民主党取得的“蓝色浪潮”式胜利,可能会放缓而非阻止人工智能数据中心的建设,这给因投资者担忧而遭受重创的亚洲科技公司带来了一线希望。

PALO ALTO, California/SEOUL/TAIPEI/TOKYO -- The "blue wave" of Democrat gains this week in the U.S. midterm elections is likely to slow, not halt, AI data center development, analysts say, giving Asian tech companies, battered by investor concerns, cause for optimism.

据 RedBud Consulting 统计,截至周四,选民已在加利福尼亚州、伊利诺伊州、缅因州、俄亥俄州、纽约州及其他州通过了 44 项限制数据中心的地方投票议案。

By Thursday, voters had approved 44 local ballot measures restricting data centers in parts of California, Illinois, Maine, Ohio, New York and other states, according to RedBud Consulting.

在作为美国主要数据中心枢纽的得克萨斯州,民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨在竞选期间提出暂停数据中心建设,击败了共和党现任州长格雷格·阿博特。

In Texas, a major U.S. data center hub, Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott for governor after proposing a temporary ban on their construction during her campaign.

这些结果反映了选民对电力需求、电价、就业和环境的担忧,将“明显放缓全美计划中的 800 至 1000 个为人工智能革命提供动力的数据中心的建设步伐”,Yorkville Ives & Co. 商行科技分析师兼合伙人丹·艾夫斯在报告中表示。

The results, reflecting voter concerns about power demands, prices, jobs and the environment, would clearly "slow the pace of the planned 800 to 1,000 data centers across the U.S. fueling the AI Revolution," Dan Ives, tech analyst and partner at Yorkville Ives & Co. merchant bank, said in a note.

随着数千亿美元从涵盖芯片到数据中心运营的亚洲供应链涌入美国人工智能基础设施,亚太地区的公司和市场因中期选举结果而下跌。

With hundreds of billions of dollars pouring into U.S. AI infrastructure from an Asian supply chain covering everything from chips to data center operations, Asia-Pacific companies and markets have sunk on the midterms outcome.

在科技股云集的纳斯达克指数周四在美国收盘下跌 6.4% 后,日经 225 种股票平均价格指数周五早盘在东京暴跌幅度相近。专注于人工智能的软银集团股价一度暴跌 14%。该公司拥有美国的 SB Energy,后者是俄亥俄州一个大型人工智能数据中心项目的开发商,其原定的首次公开募股(IPO)已被推迟。

After the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 6.4% lower in the U.S. on Thursday, the Nikkei Stock Average plunged by a similar amount in Tokyo on Friday morning. Shares in AI-focused SoftBank Group fell as much as 14%. It owns SB Energy in the U.S., developer of a huge AI data center project in Ohio and whose planned IPO has been delayed.

韩国科技股周五大幅下跌。生产用于数据中心的先进存储芯片的三星电子下跌 8.2%,其劲敌 SK 海力士暴跌逾 10%。这两只股票周四分别已下跌 7.6% 和 9.5%。

South Korean tech stocks fell sharply on Friday. Samsung Electronics, which produces advanced memory chips used in data centers, dropped 8.2%, while close rival SK Hynix plunged more than 10%. They had fallen by 7.6% and 9.5% respectively on Thursday.

台湾多家AI芯片及科技供应链关键企业股价在台北市场跌至每日跌幅限制近10%,包括台达电、联发科和南亚科。巨头代工厂台积电和鸿海精密股价在早盘交易中也暴跌近9%。

Shares of several key players in Taiwan's AI chip and technology supply chain plunged by the daily limit of nearly 10% in Taipei, including Delta Electronics, MediaTek and Unimicron. Shares of giant contract suppliers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Foxconn also tumbled nearly 9% in morning trading.

“我不认为人们近期应过分关注股市波动。AI大趋势不会停止,”南亚科执行总裁马志鸿表示,该公司是英伟达、英特尔、谷歌和亚马逊的顶级芯片基板和PCB供应商。“真正反映实际情况的是,我们的客户在追着我们要货,而我们在追着我们的材料和设备供应商。”分析师称,随着民主党主导的国会强化了调查和监管AI公司的权力,AI投资步伐预计将放缓。

"I don't think people should focus too much on stock market movements these days. The AI megatrend is not going to stop," said Mike Ma, executive president of Unimicron, top chip substrate and PCB supplier to Nvidia, Intel, Google and Amazon. "What really reflects the situation on the ground is that our customers are chasing us for supplies, while we are chasing our materials and equipment suppliers." Analysts said the pace of AI investment was expected to slow as a Democratic Party-led Congress strengthened its authority to investigate and oversee AI companies.

首尔大信证券全球策略师文南中(音)在报告中表示:“关于数据中心税收的不确定性以及基础设施成本负担……将成为数据中心投资的下行风险。”

"Uncertainty regarding data center taxation and the burden of infrastructure costs ... will act as a downside risk to data center investment," Moon Nam-joong, global strategist at Daishin Securities in Seoul, said in a note.

相比之下,中国科技股在中期选举结果公布后,以半导体板块为首大幅上涨。

In contrast, Chinese tech stocks led by the semiconductor sector surged after the midterm results were declared.

科技分析师艾夫斯在报告中表示:“如何在不同时给中国缩小与美国差距、乃至在未来几年最终反超的机会的情况下,放缓AI数据中心建设……这仍将是未来众议长和政党面临的拉锯战。”

"How do you slow down the AI data center buildout while not at the same time giving China the opportunity to narrow the gap with the U.S. or ultimately take the lead over the coming years ... that remains the tug of war for the future House Speaker and the party," tech analyst Ives said in his note.

其他分析师和业内人士表示,民主党大获全胜并不意味着AI建设戛然而止,但可能改变数据中心的建设方式。

Other analysts and industry participants said the Democrats' sweeping gains did not mean the AI buildout came to a screeching halt, but they could change how data centers are built.

富兰克林邓普顿首席市场策略师斯蒂芬·多佛周三在报告中表示:“选举不太可能扭转对AI基础设施的结构性需求,但可能改变设施建设地点、项目推进速度以及由谁承担必要基础设施的费用。”

"The election is unlikely to reverse the structural demand for AI infrastructure, but it could change where facilities are built, how quickly projects proceed and who pays for the necessary infrastructure," Franklin Templeton chief market strategist Stephen Dover said in a note on Wednesday.

“近期来看,我们确实看到关于AI数据中心建设的不确定性加剧,”晨星高级股票分析师马利克·艾哈迈德·汗表示。“我认为,美国AI数据中心的中长期前景可能会包括建设方提供更多安全保障、本地投资以及合同承诺,例如投资当地社区以及电费保护。”

"Near term, we do see heightened uncertainty re the AI data center buildout," said Malik Ahmed Khan, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. "I believe that the medium-to-long term outlook on AI data centers in the U.S. will likely include builders providing more safety safeguards, local investments and contractual commitments to things such as investing in local communities as well as electricity bill protection."

周四,OpenAI发布声明称,将建立“负责任AI基础设施的新标准”,承诺不与公职人员签署保密协议,以便更透明地说明其数据中心园区的建设方式及对当地社区的影响。

On Thursday, OpenAI published a statement saying it would establish a "new standard for responsible AI infrastructure" which promised not to use non-disclosure agreements with public officials for more transparency on how their data center campuses were built and would impact local communities.

同一天,谷歌宣布将在共和党大本营怀俄明州投资170亿美元建设数据中心。

On the same day, Google announced a $17 billion data center in Wyoming, a Republican stronghold.

谷歌表示:“我们致力于与社区合作,以正确的方式建设数据中心。我们将支付100%的用电费用,在建设数据中心时,将直接承担由我们增长带来的基础设施需求。”民主党能否兑现竞选承诺,为人工智能和数据中心设置护栏,仍有待观察。

"We're committed to partnering with communities to build data centers the right way," Google said. "We will pay for 100% of the power we use, and when we build data centers, we'll cover the infrastructure needs directly driven by our growth." It remains to be seen whether Democrats can deliver on their campaign promises to put guardrails around artificial intelligence and data centers.

一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的云计算公司政府关系主管对《日经亚洲评论》表示:“AI的经济效益在党派界限之外均得到广泛认可。民主党在竞选途中谈论遏制AI发展和数据中心建设是合情合理的,因为显而易见,选民对AI导致失业的担忧以及电价等物价持续上涨已感到厌倦。”

"The economic benefit of AI is well recognized across the party line. It makes sense for Democrats to talk about curtailing AI development and data centers on the campaign trail because it's quite obvious voters are getting fed up with the fear of AI job losses while prices like electricity keep going up," a government relations executive at a California-based cloud computing company told Nikkei Asia.

“但我们的判断是,许多民主党领袖清楚地意识到,如果此时对AI和数据中心踩下过多刹车,将对经济产生负面影响。”随着美国数据中心项目面临的障碍预计将增加,在墨西哥等其他地区建设AI基础设施的兴趣也可能随之增长。

"But our read is that many Democratic leaders are well aware of the negative impact on the economy if we put too many brakes on AI and data centers at this point." As hurdles for data center projects are expected to increase in the U.S., interest in building AI infrastructure elsewhere, such as in Mexico, may also grow.

周四,Meta总裁迪娜·鲍威尔·麦考密克在纳帕谷举行的《华尔街日报》科技大会上表示:“每一家超大规模云服务商现在都在思考‘我们是否需要在美国境外建设?’因为这些是巨额投资,对这些投资进行对冲是明智之举。”超大规模云服务商是指拥有并运营海量数据中心网络的大规模云计算服务提供商。

On Thursday, Meta President Dina Powell McCormick told the WSJ Tech conference in Napa Valley that "every hyperscaler is now thinking about 'Do we need to build outside the United States?' Because they're enormous investments, hedging those investments is a wise thing to do." Hyperscalers are large-scale cloud computing service providers that own and operate massive data center networks.

然而,这位政府关系高管表示,民主党领导层可能会实施更严格的数据安全和隐私规则,特别是针对AI公司,以将用户数据留在美国境内,这将使境外数据中心成为一个吸引力较低的选择。

However, the government relations executive said Democratic Party leadership could impose stricter data security and privacy rules, especially for AI companies, to keep user data in the U.S., making data centers outside the country a less appealing option.

他补充称,美国与中国持续进行的AI竞赛,以及在AI和数据中心方面的剧烈政策变化,可能会无意中给北京带来优势。

He added that the U.S.'s ongoing AI race with China and drastic policy changes on AI and data centers could inadvertently give Beijing an advantage.

“中国并不落后,在数据中心的电力供应和政策支持方面,他们已经领先于我们,”这位高管说。

"China is not far behind, and they are already leading us on data centers in terms of power supply and policy support," the executive said.

与此同时,未来数据中心建设放缓,对超大规模云服务商以及已经拥有并运营设施的公司来说,可能是个好消息。

Meanwhile, a slowdown in future data center development could be good news for hyperscalers and those who already have facilities up and running.

AI算力硬件融资公司Compute Labs的创始人兼首席执行官Albert Zhang(张某,音译)表示,一种情景是中期选举的结果“限制了向公众提供的算力供应,归根结底,这将增加对现有数据中心的需求”。

Albert Zhang, founder and CEO of Compute Labs, an AI compute hardware financing company, said one scenario is that the midterms' outcome "limits the supply of compute to the public, which, at the end of the day, is going to increase the demand" for existing data centers.

三大云计算服务提供商——亚马逊、微软和谷歌——在大选结果公布后股价均出现初期飙升。这些科技巨头在上周的财报电话会上重申了对AI投资的承诺。

All three major cloud-computing service providers -- Amazon, Microsoft and Google -- saw their share prices surge initially on the election results. The Big Tech players reiterated their commitment to AI investment in last week's earnings calls.

BMI研究公司的分析师表示,围绕人工智能基础设施的监管摩擦将在次国家层面加剧,并持续到2028年底,“大约53%的超大规模数据中心管道增长集中在新近翻转的州长州份,如得克萨斯州、佐治亚州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州,这些州份现在面临更高的放缓风险。”他们表示,2027年的建设进度表在很大程度上已敲定,重点转移到2028年及以后,风险包括建设暂停令和成本上升,因为民主党人正在取消税收豁免,并转向要求数据中心建设者“自带电力”。

Analysts at the BMI research firm said regulatory friction surrounding AI infrastructure would intensify at the subnational level through to the end of 2028, "with roughly 53% of hyperscaler pipeline growth concentrated in newly flipped governor states such as Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania now exposed to heightened slowdown risk." Construction schedules for 2027 are largely locked in, they said, shifting the focus to 2028 and beyond, where risks include construction moratoria and higher costs as Democrats unwind tax exemptions and pivot toward "bring-your-own-power" mandates for data center builders.

阅读媒体原文 ↗