11月6日 - 恐惧笼罩投资者，股市大跌。投资者担心，民主党在中期选举中大获全胜将导致监管加强，并拖累人工智能热潮，而这股热潮一直推动着美国经济增长以及全球计算机零部件供应链股票的上涨。
Nov 6 - Stock markets were tumbling as fear gripped investors that the Democratic sweep at the midterm elections would lead to regulation and a slowdown of the AI boom that has been propelling US growth and computer component supply chain stocks all over the world.
纳斯达克周四下跌5.5%，创下自2025年关税引发的“解放日”抛售以来的最大跌幅。
The Nasdaq fell 5.5% on Thursday in the biggest drop since the tariff-triggered "Liberation Day" rout in 2025.
周五，亚洲交易时段，首尔股市开盘后因股价暴跌8%而暂停交易，东京日经平均指数下跌超过6%。[MKTS/GLOB]以下是市场参与者的观点：艾伦·黄，兆丰金控股票交易部副总裁：“今天我们必将看到保证金账户的进一步清算，这表明我们可能正处于投降阶段的最后阶段。
On Friday in Asia trade in Seoul was halted after the open when stocks plunged 8%, and in Tokyo the Nikkei slumped more than 6%. [MKTS/GLOB] Here’s what market participants are saying: ALLEN HUANG, VICE PRESIDENT, MEGA FINANCIAL HOLDING EQUITIES TRADING DEPARTMENT: "Today we are bound to see further liquidation of margin accounts, which suggests we are likely in the final stage of capitulation.
“即使台积电一度触及每日跌停板熔断机制，这通常标志着下跌的尾声。当台积电被抛售时，意味着所有股票都已被彻底抛售。”史蒂夫·索斯尼克，纽约互动经纪首席策略师：“投资者已经开始质疑，如此巨额的人工智能支出是否能带来足够的回报，以证明数十亿美元的债务和股权资本是合理的。
"Even TSMC hit its daily limit-down circuit breaker at one point, which typically marks the tail end of a downturn. When TSMC gets sold off, that means all stocks have been thoroughly dumped." STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, NEW YORK: "Investors had already begun to question whether all the copious AI spending would reap sufficient returns to justify billions in debt and equity capital.
“当一组股票被大量持有、定价完美，且对牛市论点至关重要时，如果其基本面似乎受到威胁，就几乎没有犯错的空间。
"When a group of stocks is heavily owned, priced to perfection, and critical to the bull market’s thesis, there is not much room for error if their fundamentals appear threatened.
“在经历了我们所面临的这种损失之后，很难认为我们仅仅就能从此反弹。短期内我们可能超卖，但潜在的问题和原因不可能简单地被抹去。”谢恩·奥利弗，悉尼AMP首席经济学家兼投资策略主管：投资者正试图理解民主党获胜可能意味着什么，但他们尚未完全清楚。这印证了更广泛的担忧，即科技和人工智能相关交易此前一直以相对较高的估值倍数进行交易，这使它们容易受到冲击。这种担忧已经积累了一段时间，可以说中期选举为回调提供了触发因素。
"After damage like the sort we’ve been facing, it is difficult to think that we simply can bounce from here. We may be oversold in the short term, but the underlying questions and causes can’t simply be wiped away." SHANE OLIVER, CHIEF ECONOMIST AND HEAD OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, AMP, SYDNEY: "Investors are trying to grapple with what the Democrat win might mean and they don’t fully know yet. It attests to the broader concern that tech and AI-related trades were trading on relatively high multiples and that left them vulnerable. That concern had been building for a while now, and you could argue that the midterms provided the trigger for a pullback.
“现在说市场已经触底还为时过早，但只要经济前景不受影响，这很可能更像是一次回调，而不是熊市。”
"It’s too early to say the markets have bottomed, but providing the economic outlook is unaffected, it’s probably going to be more of a correction than a bear market." GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH, K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE:
乔治·布布拉（GEORGE BOUBOURAS），K2资产管理公司研究主管，墨尔本：“人工智能和科技股的抛售始于几个月前，原因既有估值指标，也有对自由现金流的影响，现在抛售已经加速，因为市场预期美国数据中心的推广将受到中期选举后参议院和众议院变化的影响。
"The AI and tech selloff, which began a few months ago on both valuation metrics and impact to free cash flow, has now accelerated on the prospect that the US data centre rollout will be impacted by the change in the Senate and House following the midterms. "The significant data centre rollout is now anticipated to be scaled back. The unknowns will continue to create uncertainty for markets."
“大规模的数据中心推广现在预计将被缩减。未知因素将继续给市场带来不确定性。”
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE: "I would caution against interpreting this as the Democrats putting an end to the AI boom.
查鲁·查纳纳（CHARU CHANANA），盛宝银行首席投资策略师，新加坡：“我要提醒不要将此解读为民主党终结了人工智能热潮。人工智能领导地位仍然是两党的战略优先事项，尤其是在与中国的竞争中。但支持人工智能领导地位与允许基础设施以任何代价或速度推进之间是有区别的。
AI leadership remains a strategic priority for both parties, particularly in the competition with China. But there is a difference between supporting AI leadership and allowing the infrastructure buildout to proceed at any cost or pace. "There is also clearly an element of panic in the selling, and positioning is making the adjustment much more violent.
“抛售中显然也有恐慌成分，而仓位调整使调整变得更加剧烈。当投资者开始同时平仓这些头寸时，抛售可能变得自我强化，尤其是在涉及杠杆和强制平仓的情况下。”
When investors begin unwinding these positions simultaneously, the selling can become self-reinforcing, particularly if leverage and forced liquidations are involved." MICHAEL MCCARTHY, CEO, MOOMOO AUSTRALIA AND NZ, SYDNEY:
迈克尔·麦卡锡（MICHAEL MCCARTHY），moomoo澳大利亚和新西兰首席执行官，悉尼：“很明显，市场情绪已经发生了真正的转变。”
"It’s pretty clear there’s been a real shift in sentiment. "Market turning points are often accompanied by strong disagreement, and that shows up in the market by huge swings in either direction.
“市场拐点往往伴随着强烈的分歧，而这种分歧会在市场上表现为向任何一方的巨幅波动。我们似乎正面临这种情况——而昨晚的大幅抛售表明，我们现在正朝着这个方向发展。
And that’s what we appear to have — and last night’s emphatic sell-down suggests that is the direction that we’re now headed in. "It’s quite possible this could be a significant turning point for the US market ...
“这很可能是美国市场的一个重要拐点……我认为，美国许多大型参与者在昨晚的行动中已经宣告，音乐停止了。游戏结束。”马克·富克斯，富克斯资本合伙公司首席投资官，新加坡：“民主党人对数据中心和人工智能持更为审慎的看法……因此，大局可能是支出略有减少，因为对数据中心的总体门槛提高了。
I think a lot of the bigger players in the US have declared, in last night’s action, that the music has stopped. It’s game over." MARK FUCHS, CIO, FUCHS CAPITAL PARTNERS, SINGAPORE: "The Democrats had come in with a more circumspect view on data centres and AI ... so there’s the broad picture which is probably a little bit of a spending reduction, by virtue of higher bars on data centres generally.
“亚洲科技板块总体上正在因预期需求将受到一定限制而进一步向下重新定价……此外，自美联储去年9月开始加息以来，市场也在将资本成本定得更高。
"Asia tech, broadly, is getting further repriced downward on expectations that the demand would be somewhat more constrained ... as well as markets pricing cost of capital higher since the Fed started raising rates in September.
“更重要的一点是，如果把民主党对数据中心限制这一新因素排除在外，现实是，这个板块已经向下重新定价超过一个月了。
"The more important thing, if you take the newer factor of Democrat data centre constraint off the table, (is) the reality is that this sector had been repricing downward for well over a month.
“我们更倾向于偏好与人工智能关系不大的板块和国家，这些国家提供更高的名义GDP和可持续的国内增长故事，例如国内印度，同时对冲货币和指数。”
"We are preferring more non-AI related sectors and countries that offer higher nominal GDP and durable domestic growth stories like domestic India, while hedging the currency and index."