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人工智能股重挫成焦点,美国就业数据发布在即——市场走势解析AI wipeout in focus; U.S. employment data ahead - what’s moving markets

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Investing.com —— 美国主要股指期货表现不一,纳斯达克指数期货保持涨幅,投资者正试图从本周早些时候民主党胜选引发的人工智能板块大规模暴跌中收拾残局。特斯拉和太空探索技术公司(SpaceX)的股价下跌,其市值以及老板埃隆·马斯克的个人财富估计缩水了数十亿美元。在大批美国关键就业数据即将来临之际,主要投资者现在开始质疑Anthropic能否以1.5万亿美元的估值上市。

Investing.com - Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices are mixed, with the Nasdaq contract holding on to gains, as investors look to pick up the pieces from a massive artificial intelligence-driven wipeout sparked by the Democrats’ election win earlier this week. Shares of Tesla and SpaceX drop, shaving estimated billions of dollars from their market value and boss Elon Musk’s personal fortune. Major investors are now beginning to question whether Anthropic could go public at a $1.5-trillion valuation, while key U.S. jobs data looms large.

  1. AI股遭到抛售,期货走势低迷周五,美国股指期货在持平线上下波动。截至美东时间凌晨03:00(格林尼治标准时间08:00),纳斯达克100指数期货合约上涨232点,涨幅为0.9%,标普500指数期货基本持平,道琼斯指数期货下跌534点,跌幅为1.0%。
  1. Futures subdued after AI rout U.S. stock futures were floating around both sides of the flatline on Friday. By 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT), the Nasdaq 100 futures contract had ticked up by 232 points, or 0.9%, S&P 500 futures were mostly unchanged, and Dow futures had fallen by 534 points, or 1.0%.

周四市场剧烈震动,由于交易员担心民主党对人工智能的监管更加严格,纷纷争相抛售涉足这一新兴技术的股票并套现。从芯片制造商、数据中心开发商到电力供应商,抛售潮迅速蔓延至整个科技行业,最终导致纳斯达克综合指数的总市值估计蒸发了2.5万亿美元。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的跌幅。

Markets shuddered on Thursday, spurred by traders fearful of greater Democratic regulation of AI racing to exit stocks exposed to the nascent technology and pick up cash. Chipmakers, data centers developers, power providers -- the rout spread rapidly through the tech industry, eventually shedding an estimated $2.5 trillion in total market value off the Nasdaq Composite. It was a drop not seen March 2020, the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

抛售潮蔓延至更广泛的股票市场,凸显出人工智能热潮在多大程度上支撑了整体经济增长。在收盘时,基准的标普500指数暴跌4.36%,蓝筹股道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌3.44%。一个市场波动性追踪指标创下自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普去年推出全面的“解放日”关税以来的最大单日涨幅。

The selloff bled into wider equities, underscoring just how much the AI boom has been propping up overall economic growth. At the end of the session, the benchmark S&P 500 had slumped by 4.36% and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had plummeted by 3.44%. A tracker of market volatility surged to its biggest daily jump since U.S. President Donald Trump rolled out his sweeping Liberation Day tariffs last year.

全球股市也未能幸免。摩根士丹利资本国际亚太指数(MSCI Asia Pacific index)创下自2025年以来的最大跌幅,日本股市大跌,台湾加权指数则跌入熊市区间。在韩国,由于芯片企业SK海力士和三星电子一直是人工智能时代的主要赢家,股市跌幅过大以至于触发了熔断机制。与此同时,泛欧斯托克600指数(Stoxx 600)开盘即告下跌。

Global stocks were not spared, either. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell to its largest decline since 2025, while stocks in Japan tumbled and Taiwan’s key index dipped into bear market territory. In South Korea, where chip firms SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have been major winners of the AI era, stocks fell so much a circuit breaker was triggered. Meanwhile, the pan-European Stoxx 600 opened in the red.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)市场经济学家乔·马赫(Joe Maher)在一份报告中表示:“在美国政治发生重大转变的背景下,人们对人工智能基础设施建设可持续性的担忧日益加剧,这导致科技股又经历了惨淡的一天。”

"Growing fears about the sustainability of the AI buildout in the context of the major shift in U.S. politics have cause[d] another bruising day for tech stocks," said Joe Maher, Markets Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

他表示:“中期选举的冲击最终是否会成为破坏人工智能股市狂热的催化剂还有待观察,但这更加坚定了我们的看法,即这场狂热已进入尾声。”

"Whether the mid-terms shock turns out to be the catalyst that derails the AI equity boom remains to be seen, but it strengthens our sense that the boom is in its final innings."

  1. 马斯克的股票暴跌人工智能股票的自由落体式下跌所造成的核心输家之一可能是埃隆·马斯克,这位大亨旗下公司的股价下滑加剧了更广泛的股市低迷。
  1. Musk stocks crater One of the central losers from the AI freefall may be Elon Musk, after a slide in shares of the tycoon’s companies contributed to the broader malaise in stocks.

马斯克的电动汽车巨头特斯拉(Tesla)股价回落了11%,使其今年以来的跌幅达到大约24%。太空探索技术公司(SpaceX)——这家火箭巨头几个月前通过一次轰动一时的发行完成了上市——股价下跌了9%。

Musk’s electric car giant Tesla retreated by 11%, bringing its decline so far this year to roughly 24%. SpaceX, the rocket behemoth Musk took public in a blockbuster offering just months ago, declined by 9%.

据彭博新闻社(Bloomberg News)计算,尘埃落定之时,这场暴跌使这两只股票的总市值蒸发了大约4600亿美元。彭博社报道称,马斯克本人的净资产一度缩水710亿美元,降至7930亿美元,尽管他仍然是世界首富。

When the dust settled, the plunge shaved about $460 billion from the combined market value of the two stocks, according to calculations from Bloomberg News. Musk himself saw his net worth fall by $71 billion to $793 billion at one point, although he remains the world’s richest man, Bloomberg reported.

虽然这两家公司是周四更大规模抛售潮的一部分,但考虑到民主党在特斯拉和SpaceX总部所在地得克萨斯州获胜,它们的暴跌尤为引人注目。得克萨斯州候任州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨(Gina Hinojosa)已承诺在该州暂停数据中心开发,而詹姆士·塔拉里科(James Talarico)——自20世纪80年代末以来首位赢得得克萨斯州参议院席位的民主党人——则将矛头指向了马斯克对共和党对手肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)的大力捐款。

While the companies were part of a larger selloff on Thursday, their slump was notable given Democratic victories in Texas, where Tesla and SpaceX are headquartered. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged to begin a moratorium on data center development in the state and James Talarico, who became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas since the late 1980s, has taken aim at Musk’s heavy contributions to Republican rival Ken Paxton.

  1. 主要投资者对Anthropic公司1.5万亿美元的首次公开募股估值表示怀疑——《华尔街日报》科技股的突然抛售可能也让Anthropic公司受到了冲击,该公司潜在的首次公开募股已与人工智能及美国经济的命运紧密相连。
  1. Major investors skeptical of $1.5-trillion Anthropic IPO valuation - WSJ The sudden tech unwinding may have also bruised Anthropic, whose possible initial public offering has become closely tied to the fortunes of AI and the American economy.

据报道,Anthropic公司一直计划在感恩节前一周上市,这家Claude开发商预计将筹集高达1000亿美元资金,估值约为1.5万亿美元。

Anthropic has been reportedly aiming to go public the week prior to Thanksgiving, with the Claude-maker expected to raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation of about $1.5 trillion.

然而,据《华尔街日报》报道,三位计划参与此次首次公开募股的主要投资者现在认为这一估值可能会下降,其中一位投资者暗示该估值甚至可能跌至1万亿美元。

However, three major investors who plan to participate in the IPO now believe that value could fall, with one suggesting that it may potentially go down to $1 trillion, according to The Wall Street Journal.

《华尔街日报》报道称,不过,一些投资者在下调估值前,仍希望看到Anthropic公司10月份的回报率,并补充说,该公司用于估算年度收入的一项指标在上月底超过了800亿美元。一位投资者对《华尔街日报》表示,Anthropic公司也可能决定筹集比先前预计更少的资金,而另一位投资者则在琢磨,如果市场行情更有利,首次公开募股是否可能会推迟。

Still, some investors are keen to see Anthropic’s October returns before slashing the valuation, the WSJ reported, adding that a metric the firm uses to estimate annual revenue exceeded $80 billion at the end of last month. Anthropic may also decide to raise less money than previously projected, one investor told the WSJ, while another wondered if the IPO might be delayed until more favorable market conditions come along.

  1. 美国就业报告即将发布尽管投资者仍在仔细分析周四股市暴跌留下的残局,但他们现在必须翻开新的一页,关注今天晚些时候至关重要的美国就业报告。
  1. U.S. jobs report ahead Even as they pick through the equity-market wreckage of Thursday, investors must now turn the page to the all-important U.S. employment report later today.

预计美国10月份新增就业岗位65,000个,高于上个月的29,000个,失业率预计将维持在9月份4.2%的水平。

The U.S. is expected to have added 65,000 roles in October, up from 29,000 in the preceding month, and the unemployment rate is seen matching September’s level of 4.2%.

劳动力市场的韧性迹象可能会增强美联社在12月份今年最后一次会议上加息的理由。美联社此前已表示希望控制高企的通胀,而强劲的就业形势可以通过提高借贷成本,为其这样做提供更多的空间。

Signs of resilience in the labor market could bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its final gathering of the year in December. The Fed has signaled a desire to corral elevated inflation, and a robust jobs picture could give them more headroom to do so by lifting borrowing costs.

然而,德意志银行的分析师指出,“随着对人工智能的担忧再次加剧”,“关于美联社是否会再次加息,产生了一轮新的疑问”。在股市暴跌之后,市场对加息的定价有所下降。

However, analysts at Deutsche Bank flagged that "with AI fears gathering pace again," there has been "a fresh round of question marks as to whether the Fed would hike again." Market pricing for a rate increase decreased following the stock market slump.

  1. 油价震荡由于中东油轮再次遭到袭击加剧了人们对供应中断的担忧,油价出现波动,尽管由于投资者重新评估对美以与伊朗战争的前景,油价仍有望迎来大幅周跌幅。
  1. Oil prices choppy Oil prices were volatile as fresh attacks on tankers in the Middle East heightened supply disruption concerns, although prices remained on course for sharp weekly losses as investors reassessed the outlook for the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

布伦特原油基准价格周四收盘上涨近4%,而WTI原油上涨2.7%。此前周三油价出现下跌,两大基准油价暴跌超过8%,创下8月31日以来的最低收盘价,当时美国中期选举结果最初激起了人们对通过恢复外交努力来结束冲突的希望。

Benchmark Brent crude settled nearly 4% higher on Thursday, while WTI crude gained 2.7%. The rebound followed a decline on Wednesday, when both benchmarks plunged more than 8% to their lowest closing levels since August 31, as U.S. midterm election results initially raised hopes of renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.

英国海上贸易行动办公室(UKMTO)表示,自周日以来,已有至少五艘船只报告遭遇事故,袭击频率正接近10月创下的35起船只报告事故的纪录。

At least five vessels have reported incidents since Sunday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), with the pace of attacks approaching October’s record of 35 reported vessel incidents.

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队表示,在试图通过霍尔木兹海峡未授权航线航行后,两艘油轮和一艘拖船在不同的事件中起火。

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to navigate unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

随着也门与伊朗结盟的胡塞武装继续对该王国发动袭击,沙特阿拉伯还就其红海石油出口枢纽延布附近的潜在危险发出了警告。

Saudi Arabia also issued warnings about potential danger near Yanbu, its Red Sea oil export hub, as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants continued attacks on the kingdom.

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