民主党在中期选举中取得压倒性胜利，这让一些欧洲人私下松了一口气，但官方层面并未表现出任何窃喜，因为乌克兰、伊朗和北约等问题都悬而未决。
Why Europe Worries About a Politically Wounded Trump The commanding victory of the Democrats has brought private relief to some Europeans but no official glee, with Ukraine, Iran and NATO all hanging in the balance.
特朗普总统虽因中期选举在政治上受损，但他仍是一位拥有巨大权力且难以捉摸的行动者，心中念念不忘的是留下政治遗产。
President Trump may be politically damaged by the midterms, but he remains an immensely powerful and unpredictable actor who has legacy on his mind.
在其共和党遭遇惊人选举惨败后，欧洲各国政府基本克制住了任何官方层面的窃喜情绪，因为它们意识到必须与特朗普保持良好关系。
In the wake of a stunning electoral defeat for his Republican Party, European governments have largely restrained from any official glee, recognizing that they must retain good relationships with Mr. Trump.
官员和分析人士表示，欧洲各国不知道跛脚鸭特朗普会不会变成愤怒的特朗普。但它们明白，新国会对特朗普外交政策的制约将非常有限。而且它们认为，特朗普不仅想在华盛顿留下印记，也想在外交事务上留下印记，而他在外交事务上拥有广泛的行动自由。
They do not know if a lame duck Mr. Trump will become an angry one. But they understand, officials and analysts said, that the new Congress will have only limited constraints on Mr. Trump’s foreign policy. And they believe he wants to leave his mark not just on Washington, but on foreign affairs, where he has broad freedom of action.
短期内，欧洲各国预计特朗普将竭力推动解决伊朗和乌克兰冲突，并继续施压欧洲承担更多自身防务责任。它们还假设，特朗普将继续聚焦西半球，特别是委内瑞拉和古巴。
In the short run, they expect him to push as best he can to resolve the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine and keep the pressure on Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense. They also assume that Mr. Trump will continue to focus on the Western Hemisphere, especially Venezuela and Cuba.
展望未来，欧洲盟友将希望接触国会中的新面孔，以更好地了解一个正在变化的美国，并试图说服新一代政界和商界领袖，跨大西洋关系具有适应性，且对美国的长远利益至关重要。
Looking ahead, European allies will want to reach out to the new faces in Congress to better understand a changing United States and to try to convince a new generation of politicians and business leaders that the trans-Atlantic relationship is adaptable and vital to America’s long-term interests.
“欧洲人需要设法让特朗普政府继续投入欧洲事务，所以我们不想落井下石，”前德国驻美大使、慕尼黑安全会议主席沃尔夫冈·伊申格说。“让美国人去庆祝吧。如果我们为反对派获胜欢庆，就是没尽到我们的责任。”
“Europeans need to try to keep the Trump administration engaged in Europe, so we don’t want to add insult to injury” by lauding his defeat, said Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to Washington and chairman of the Munich Security Conference. “Let the Americans celebrate. If we celebrate an opposition win, we’re not doing our jobs.”
与此同时，他说，现在是欧洲人增加对美投入的时候了。“美国决策者有可能——哪怕机会渺茫——会对欧洲产生新的兴趣，不再把欧洲视为不必要的负担，而是视为有趣且重要的盟友。”仅在过去两年里，特朗普就因质疑北约的效用、威胁从北约盟友丹麦手中夺取格陵兰岛、以及削减对抗击俄罗斯入侵的乌克兰的支持，严重损害了跨大西洋关系。
At the same time, he said, it is a time for Europeans to increase their engagement across the United States. “There is a small chance that American decision makers might develop a new interest in Europe, not as an unnecessary burden but as an interesting and important ally.”In the past two years alone, Mr. Trump has badly strained the trans-Atlantic relationship by questioning the utility of NATO, threatening to seize Greenland from a NATO ally and reducing U.S. support for Ukraine as it battles a Russian invasion.
长远的希望是，在2028年选出新总统后，能建立更富成效的关系。柏林全球公共政策研究所所长托尔斯滕·本纳说，普遍认为，无论谁获胜，都不可能回到拜登执政时期那种温暖的关系。他表示，对欧洲人而言，教训应该很明确——“加倍努力提升我们不依赖美国的自卫能力，而不是拖延迄今为止仅属半心半意的军事自立努力。”最迫切：伊朗与乌克兰最直接的担忧关乎乌克兰和伊朗的战争，以及特朗普将对驻欧美军的存在和部署做出何种决定。
The longer-term hope is for a more productive relationship after a new president is elected in 2028. There is general acknowledgment that there is no return to the warm ties of the Biden years regardless of who wins, said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. For Europeans the lesson should be clear, he said — “double-down on our ability to defend ourselves without relying on the U.S., rather than slowing down what until now is only a halfhearted effort to stand on our own feet militarily.”Most Pressing: Iran and Ukraine The most immediate concerns are about the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and about what Mr. Trump will decide about the presence and location of American forces in Europe.
特朗普向俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京伸出橄榄枝，提议达成商业协议、举行高层会晤并结束外交孤立，这与欧洲通过增加经济和外交压力迫使俄罗斯停止在乌克兰战争的努力背道而驰，并对其构成削弱。
Mr. Trump’s outreach to President Vladimir V. Putin, offering Russians business deals, high-level meetings and an end to diplomatic isolation, contradicts and undermines the European effort to increase economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia to stop the war in Ukraine.
两名欧洲高级官员表示，乌克兰官员担心，特朗普会试图利用从现在到明年1月新一届国会就职之间的这段时间，进一步安抚普京，包括在佛罗里达再举行一次峰会。
Ukrainian officials are anxious that Mr. Trump will try to use the period between now and the sitting of the new Congress in January for further efforts to mollify Mr. Putin, including another summit meeting in Florida, two senior European officials said.
“对欧洲来说，最大的危险来自特朗普对俄罗斯和乌克兰的反复无常政策，”赫尔蒂学院院长、欧洲治理与地缘政治学教授丹妮拉·施瓦泽说。“随着特朗普如今实力被削弱，华盛顿与莫斯科之间进一步靠拢的风险依然存在。”美方的努力下周将继续，计划在阿布扎比举行美国、俄罗斯和乌克兰特使的三方会议，讨论迈向和平条约的步骤以及未来安全保证，特朗普周四表示，这些保证“可能涵盖整个欧洲”。
“For Europe, the greatest danger comes from Trump’s erratic policy toward Russia and Ukraine,” said Daniela Schwarzer, president of the Hertie School and a professor of European governance and geopolitics. “The risk of an even closer alignment between Washington and Moscow remains as Trump is now weakened.”The American efforts will continue next week with a scheduled trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi among American, Russian and Ukrainian envoys to discuss steps toward a peace treaty and future security assurances that “might include all of Europe,” Mr. Trump said on Thursday.
欧洲官员将在场支持乌克兰，但不太可能进入会谈室。这些官员说，他们对普京现在是否愿意认真谈判并不乐观，因为普京正在严冬来临前猛烈打击乌克兰的民用基础设施。如果特朗普把乌克兰战争视为一项政治遗产工程，普京也是如此。
European officials will be there to support Ukraine but are unlikely to be in the room. And they are not optimistic that Mr. Putin is open to serious negotiations now, the officials said, while he is pounding Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure before a bitter winter. If Mr. Trump sees the Ukraine war as a legacy project, so does Mr. Putin.
这些官员认为，普京会等待美国局势的变化，同时也会等待明年春天法国总统选举的结果。在法国，希望终止法国对乌克兰财政支持的极右翼政客玛丽娜·勒庞仍是领跑者。普京还看到了波兰和德国的裂痕——德国政府广不受欢迎，主要反对党德国选择党反对援助乌克兰。
The officials believe that Mr. Putin will wait to see what happens in the United States, but also for the result of the French presidential election in the spring, where Marine Le Pen, the far-right politician who wants to end French financial support for Ukraine, remains the front-runner. Mr. Putin also sees cracks in Poland and in Germany, where the government is widely unpopular and the main opposition party, the Alternative for Germany, opposes aid to Ukraine.
与此同时，特朗普继续向欧洲人出售美国武器，再由他们转交给乌克兰，并提供有关俄罗斯来袭导弹和部队部署的重要情报。即使他决定从德国传统基地撤出部分美军，如果随后有更多美军被派往波兰等前线国家，欧洲人也不会不高兴。
At the same time, Mr. Trump continues to sell American weaponry to Europeans to pass on to Ukraine and to provide vital intelligence about incoming Russian missiles and troop deployments. Even if he decides to pull some American troops out of their traditional bases in Germany, the Europeans would not be unhappy if more were then sent to frontline states like Poland.
官员和分析人士认为，在伊朗问题上，特朗普似乎希望谈判，而不是让一场已被证明在美国选民中极不受欢迎的战争升级。迄今为止，他一直拒绝以色列看守总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡提出的谈判请求。内塔尼亚胡是在选举结果悬而未决后出任看守总理的。前中东谈判代表、现任职于卡内基国际和平基金会的亚伦·戴维·米勒表示，内塔尼亚胡前途未卜，以及其头号竞争对手加迪·艾森科特正努力组建政府，都是暂缓轰炸行动的进一步理由。
On Iran, Mr. Trump appears to want to negotiate instead of escalating a war that has proved so unpopular with American voters, officials and analysts believe. He has so far rejected pleas to do so from Benjamin Netanyahu, the caretaker Israeli prime minister after inconclusive elections. The uncertain future of Mr. Netanyahu and the efforts of his foremost rival, Gadi Eisenkot, to form a government are further reasons to hold off a bombing campaign, said Aaron David Miller, a former Mideast negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment.
很少有官员或分析人士认为，新的军事打击会对改变伊朗的立场或其认为自己能够比美国压力更持久的信念产生多大作用，而沮丧的特朗普仍可能决定让战争升级。
Few officials or analysts believe that new military strikes will do much to change Iran’s position or its belief that it can outlast American pressure, and a frustrated Mr. Trump may still decide to escalate the war.
国际危机组织驻日内瓦的伊朗问题专家阿里·瓦埃兹表示：“在失去国会支持、并看到伊朗战争成为选举负担之后，特朗普现在面临一个选择：达成一项保全面子的协议并宣布胜利，还是在军事上加倍下注以夺回主动权。”
“Having lost Congress and seen the Iran war become an electoral liability, Trump now faces a choice: cut a face-saving deal and declare victory, or double down militarily to reclaim the initiative,” said Ali Vaez, a Geneva-based Iran expert at the International Crisis Group.
不会回到旧常态。前德国驻华盛顿大使艾米莉·哈伯警告说，今后欧洲人可能会高估美国人对世界看法的变化。“欧洲可能会有某种程度的自我欺骗，认为我们将在两年内回到旧常态，”她说。“但这并不会改变欧洲在美国安全和全球秩序政策中作用下降的趋势，这种下降有结构性原因，与党派之争无关。”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院欧洲问题教授娜塔莉·托奇认为，对欧洲的主要影响可能不在于外交政策，而在于政治，因为欧洲正进入西班牙、法国、意大利和波兰的关键选举年。
No New Normal Going forward, there’s a risk that Europeans will overestimate the change in American views of the world, warned Emily Haber, a former German ambassador to Washington. “There will probably be some degree of self-delusion in Europe that we’ll be back to the old normal in two years,” she said. “But this does not alter the declining role of Europe for American policy in security and global order, which has structural reasons and is not tied to partisanship.”The main implication for Europe may be less about foreign policy than about politics as it heads into a year of crucial elections in Spain, France, Italy and Poland, argued Nathalie Tocci, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Europe.
“‘民主回来了’可能会对欧洲政治产生传染效应，”她说。在最近的选举击败了匈牙利、巴西和塞尔维亚的右翼威权人物之后，她说，“中期选举传递出一种极其强大但无形的感觉，‘是的，我们可以’击败极右翼。”史蒂文·厄兰格是驻欧洲首席外交记者，常驻柏林。他曾从包括泰国、法国、以色列、德国和前苏联在内的120多个国家发回报道。
“There is a possible contagion effect of ‘democracy is back’ on European politics,” she said. After recent elections that defeated authoritarian figures of the right in Hungary, Brazil and Serbia, she said, “the midterms convey an incredibly powerful but intangible sense of, ‘Yes we can’ defeat the far right.”Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe and is based in Berlin. He has reported from over 120 countries, including Thailand, France, Israel, Germany and the former Soviet Union.